MLB playoff odds are based on 25000 simulations of the rest of the season and playoffs. The team's estimated quality is determined by their performance over their last 100 regular season games (even if it spans seasons) and includes a regression to the mean factor. These results are based on standings through 2000-10-01. This page does not update during the postseason.

Most Likely Scenarios

Most Likely Scenarios Table
Lg Top Seed Division Winner Division Winner Wild Card
NLSan Francisco GiantsSt. Louis CardinalsAtlanta BravesNew York Mets
ALChicago White SoxOakland AthleticsNew York YankeesSeattle Mariners
Playoff Odds Table
Current Remaining Average 90% Confidence Change
Tm Lg D SRS rSOS W L W L W L Best Worst Post WC Div LDS LCS Pennant Win WS 1 Day 7 Days 30 Days
NL East
1Atlanta BravesNLE0.20.095670.00.095.067.095-6795-67>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%45.6%18.4%8.1%0.0%0.0%+6.3%
2New York MetsNLE0.60.094680.00.094.068.094-6894-68>99.9%>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%43.3%22.1%11.2%0.0%+0.0%+1.3%
3Florida MarlinsNLE-0.40.079820.00.079.082.079-8279-82<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
4Montreal ExposNLE-1.30.067950.00.067.095.067-9567-95<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Philadelphia PhilliesNLE-0.50.065970.00.065.097.065-9765-97<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
NL Central
1St. Louis CardinalsNLC0.70.095670.00.095.067.095-6795-67>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%54.4%24.6%12.4%0.0%0.0%+1.4%
2Cincinnati RedsNLC0.90.085770.00.085.077.085-7785-77<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-1.5%
3Milwaukee BrewersNLC-0.10.073890.00.073.089.073-8973-89<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
4Houston AstrosNLC0.30.072900.00.072.090.072-9072-90<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Pittsburgh PiratesNLC-0.60.069930.00.069.093.069-9369-93<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
6Chicago CubsNLC-0.90.065970.00.065.097.065-9765-97<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
NL West
1San Francisco GiantsNLW1.20.097650.00.097.065.097-6597-65>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%56.7%34.8%20.3%0.0%0.0%+4.2%
2Los Angeles DodgersNLW0.10.086760.00.086.076.086-7686-76<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-1.9%
3Arizona DiamondbacksNLW0.00.085770.00.085.077.085-7785-77<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-8.4%
4Colorado RockiesNLW0.30.082800.00.082.080.082-8082-80<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-1.4%
5San Diego PadresNLW-0.40.076860.00.076.086.076-8676-86<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Current Remaining Average 90% Confidence Change
Tm Lg D SRS rSOS W L W L W L Best Worst Post WC Div LDS LCS Pennant Win WS 1 Day 7 Days 30 Days
AL East
1New York YankeesALE0.30.087740.00.087.074.087-7487-74>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%42.7%19.0%8.1%0.0%+0.0%+3.0%
2Boston Red SoxALE-0.30.085770.00.085.077.085-7785-77<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-20.6%
3Toronto Blue JaysALE-0.50.083790.00.083.079.083-7983-79<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-1.6%-13.1%
4Baltimore OriolesALE-0.80.074880.00.074.088.074-8874-88<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Tampa Bay Devil RaysALE-0.50.069920.00.069.092.069-9269-92<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
AL Central
1Chicago White SoxALC0.80.095670.00.095.067.095-6795-67>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%51.3%26.0%12.8%0.0%0.0%+0.2%
2Cleveland IndiansALC0.70.090720.00.090.072.090-7290-72<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%-13.3%-36.8%-58.8%
3Detroit TigersALC0.80.079830.00.079.083.079-8379-83<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-3.7%
4Kansas City RoyalsALC-0.20.077850.00.077.085.077-8577-85<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Minnesota TwinsALC-0.80.069930.00.069.093.069-9369-93<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
AL West
1Oakland AthleticsALW1.00.091700.00.091.070.091-7091-70>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%57.3%31.0%15.7%0.0%+28.9%+76.8%
2Seattle MarinersALW0.60.091710.00.091.071.091-7191-71>99.9%>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%48.7%24.0%11.4%+13.3%+9.5%+25.3%
3Anaheim AngelsALW0.10.082800.00.082.080.082-8082-80<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-9.1%
4Texas RangersALW-1.00.071910.00.071.091.071-9171-91<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%