MLB playoff odds are based on 25000 simulations of the rest of the season and playoffs. The team's estimated quality is determined by their performance over their last 100 regular season games (even if it spans seasons) and includes a regression to the mean factor. These results are based on standings through 1999-10-04. This page does not update during the postseason.

Most Likely Scenarios

Most Likely Scenarios Table
Lg Top Seed Division Winner Division Winner Wild Card
NLAtlanta BravesArizona DiamondbacksHouston AstrosNew York Mets
ALNew York YankeesCleveland IndiansTexas RangersBoston Red Sox
Playoff Odds Table
Current Remaining Average 90% Confidence Change
Tm Lg D SRS rSOS W L W L W L Best Worst Post WC Div LDS LCS Pennant Win WS 1 Day 7 Days 30 Days
NL East
1Atlanta BravesNLE1.70.0103590.00.0103.059.0103-59103-59>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%60.8%31.7%20.1%0.0%0.0%+1.0%
2New York MetsNLE1.40.097660.00.097.066.097-6697-66>99.9%>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%48.0%24.5%14.5%+49.0%+65.8%+14.6%
3Philadelphia PhilliesNLE-0.10.077850.00.077.085.077-8577-85<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
4Montreal ExposNLE-0.70.068940.00.068.094.068-9468-94<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Florida MarlinsNLE-0.70.064980.00.064.098.064-9864-98<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
NL Central
1Houston AstrosNLC0.80.097650.00.097.065.097-6597-65>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%39.2%15.5%7.8%0.0%+19.5%+36.0%
2Cincinnati RedsNLC1.10.096670.00.096.067.096-6796-67<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%-49.0%-85.2%-50.5%
3Pittsburgh PiratesNLC0.00.078830.00.078.083.078-8378-83<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
4St. Louis CardinalsNLC0.00.075860.00.075.086.075-8675-86<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Milwaukee BrewersNLC-0.30.074870.00.074.087.074-8774-87<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
6Chicago CubsNLC-1.60.167950.00.067.095.067-9567-95<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
NL West
1Arizona DiamondbacksNLW1.5-0.1100620.00.0100.062.0100-62100-62>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%52.0%28.2%17.7%0.0%0.0%+2.8%
2San Francisco GiantsNLW0.40.086760.00.086.076.086-7686-76<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-3.8%
3Los Angeles DodgersNLW0.30.077850.00.077.085.077-8577-85<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
4San Diego PadresNLW0.00.074880.00.074.088.074-8874-88<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Colorado RockiesNLW-0.70.072900.00.072.090.072-9072-90<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Current Remaining Average 90% Confidence Change
Tm Lg D SRS rSOS W L W L W L Best Worst Post WC Div LDS LCS Pennant Win WS 1 Day 7 Days 30 Days
AL East
1New York YankeesALE1.00.098640.00.098.064.098-6498-64>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%54.6%31.0%13.7%0.0%0.0%+0.0%
2Boston Red SoxALE0.60.094680.00.094.068.094-6894-68>99.9%>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%53.8%25.7%10.2%0.0%+0.0%+54.8%
3Toronto Blue JaysALE0.20.084780.00.084.078.084-7884-78<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-8.2%
4Baltimore OriolesALE0.30.078840.00.078.084.078-8478-84<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Tampa Bay Devil RaysALE-0.70.069930.00.069.093.069-9369-93<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
AL Central
1Cleveland IndiansALC0.40.097650.00.097.065.097-6597-65>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%46.2%20.2%7.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2Chicago White SoxALC-1.10.075860.00.075.086.075-8675-86<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
3Detroit TigersALC-1.00.069920.00.069.092.069-9269-92<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
4Kansas City RoyalsALC-1.00.064970.00.064.097.064-9764-97<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Minnesota TwinsALC-1.10.063970.00.063.097.063-9763-97<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
AL West
1Texas RangersALW0.70.095670.00.095.067.095-6795-67>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%45.4%23.0%8.9%0.0%0.0%+2.0%
2Oakland AthleticsALW0.30.087750.00.087.075.087-7587-75<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-48.3%
3Seattle MarinersALW-0.70.079830.00.079.083.079-8379-83<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-0.3%
4Anaheim AngelsALW-1.20.070920.00.070.092.070-9270-92<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%