MLB playoff odds are based on 25000 simulations of the rest of the season and playoffs. The team's estimated quality is determined by their performance over their last 100 regular season games (even if it spans seasons) and includes a regression to the mean factor. These results are based on standings through 1902-10-05. This page does not update during the postseason.
Playoff Odds
| Current | Remaining | Average | 90% Confidence | Change | |||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tm | Lg | SRS | rSOS | W | L | W | L | W | L | Best | Worst | Pennant | Win WS | 1 Day | 7 Days | 30 Days | |||||||
| NL | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | Pittsburgh Pirates | NL | 1.8 | -0.1 | 103 | 36 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 103.0 | 36.0 | 103-36 | 103-36 | >99.9% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
| 2 | Brooklyn Superbas | NL | 0.3 | -0.1 | 75 | 63 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 75.0 | 63.0 | 75-63 | 75-63 | <0.1% | <0.1% | |||||||||
| 3 | Boston Nationals | NL | 0.5 | -0.1 | 73 | 64 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 73.0 | 64.0 | 73-64 | 73-64 | <0.1% | <0.1% | |||||||||
| 4 | Cincinnati Reds | NL | 0.6 | 0.0 | 70 | 70 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 70.0 | 70.0 | 70-70 | 70-70 | <0.1% | <0.1% | |||||||||
| 5 | Chicago | NL | 0.0 | 0.1 | 68 | 69 | -1.0 | 0.0 | 67.0 | 69.0 | 67-69 | 67-69 | <0.1% | <0.1% | |||||||||
| 6 | Philadelphia Phillies | NL | -1.0 | 0.2 | 56 | 81 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 56.0 | 81.0 | 56-81 | 56-81 | <0.1% | <0.1% | |||||||||
| 7 | St. Louis Cardinals | NL | -1.0 | 0.2 | 56 | 78 | 0.0 | -1.0 | 56.0 | 77.0 | 56-77 | 56-77 | <0.1% | <0.1% | |||||||||
| 8 | New York Giants | NL | -1.3 | 0.2 | 48 | 88 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 48.0 | 88.0 | 48-88 | 48-88 | <0.1% | <0.1% | |||||||||
| Current | Remaining | Average | 90% Confidence | Change | |||||||||||||||||||
| Tm | Lg | SRS | rSOS | W | L | W | L | W | L | Best | Worst | Pennant | Win WS | 1 Day | 7 Days | 30 Days | |||||||
| AL | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | Philadelphia Athletics | AL | 1.1 | 0.0 | 83 | 53 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 83.0 | 53.0 | 83-53 | 83-53 | >99.9% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | +48.7% | ||||||
| 2 | St. Louis Browns | AL | 0.2 | 0.2 | 78 | 58 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 78.0 | 58.0 | 78-58 | 78-58 | <0.1% | <0.1% | |||||||||
| 3 | Boston Americans | AL | 0.5 | 0.1 | 77 | 60 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 77.0 | 60.0 | 77-60 | 77-60 | <0.1% | <0.1% | |||||||||
| 4 | Chicago White Sox | AL | 0.4 | 0.1 | 74 | 60 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 74.0 | 60.0 | 74-60 | 74-60 | <0.1% | <0.1% | |||||||||
| 5 | Cleveland Blues | AL | 0.7 | 0.1 | 69 | 67 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 69.0 | 67.0 | 69-67 | 69-67 | <0.1% | <0.1% | |||||||||
| 6 | Washington Senators | AL | -0.8 | 0.4 | 61 | 75 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 61.0 | 75.0 | 61-75 | 61-75 | <0.1% | <0.1% | |||||||||
| 7 | Detroit Tigers | AL | -0.7 | 0.2 | 52 | 83 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 52.0 | 83.0 | 52-83 | 52-83 | <0.1% | <0.1% | |||||||||
| 8 | Baltimore Orioles | AL | -1.3 | 50 | 88 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0 | 88.0 | 50-88 | 50-88 | <0.1% | <0.1% | ||||||||||
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