MLB playoff odds are based on 25000 simulations of the rest of the season and playoffs. The team's estimated quality is determined by their performance over their last 100 regular season games (even if it spans seasons) and includes a regression to the mean factor. These results are based on standings through 2004-10-03. This page does not update during the postseason.

Most Likely Scenarios

Most Likely Scenarios Table
Lg Top Seed Division Winner Division Winner Wild Card
NLSt. Louis CardinalsAtlanta BravesLos Angeles DodgersHouston Astros
ALNew York YankeesAnaheim AngelsMinnesota TwinsBoston Red Sox
Playoff Odds Table
Current Remaining Average 90% Confidence Change
Tm Lg D SRS rSOS W L W L W L Best Worst Post WC Div LDS LCS Pennant Win WS 1 Day 7 Days 30 Days
NL East
1Atlanta BravesNLE1.3-0.196660.00.096.066.096-6696-66>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%59.4%31.7%17.8%0.0%0.0%+0.3%
2Philadelphia PhilliesNLE0.30.086760.00.086.076.086-7686-76<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
3Florida MarlinsNLE0.20.083790.00.083.079.083-7983-79<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-5.3%
4New York MetsNLE-0.40.071910.00.071.091.071-9171-91<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Montreal ExposNLE-0.567950.00.067.095.067-9567-95<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
NL Central
1St. Louis CardinalsNLC1.3-0.1105570.00.0105.057.0105-57105-57>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%59.4%33.2%18.6%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2Houston AstrosNLC0.50.092700.00.092.070.092-7092-70>99.9%>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%40.6%17.1%7.8%+12.6%+93.5%+95.4%
3Chicago CubsNLC0.60.089730.00.089.073.089-7389-73<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-63.0%-56.5%
4Cincinnati RedsNLC-1.20.076860.00.076.086.076-8676-86<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Pittsburgh PiratesNLC-0.20.072890.00.072.089.072-8972-89<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
6Milwaukee BrewersNLC-1.20.067940.00.067.094.067-9467-94<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
NL West
1Los Angeles DodgersNLW0.50.093690.00.093.069.093-6993-69>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%40.6%18.0%8.2%0.0%+7.7%+11.4%
2San Francisco GiantsNLW1.00.091710.00.091.071.091-7191-71<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%-12.6%-33.6%-31.5%
3San Diego PadresNLW0.30.087750.00.087.075.087-7587-75<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-4.6%-13.7%
4Colorado RockiesNLW-0.20.068940.00.068.094.068-9468-94<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Arizona DiamondbacksNLW-2.10.1511110.00.051.0111.051-11151-111<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Current Remaining Average 90% Confidence Change
Tm Lg D SRS rSOS W L W L W L Best Worst Post WC Div LDS LCS Pennant Win WS 1 Day 7 Days 30 Days
AL East
1New York YankeesALE0.40.0101610.00.0101.061.0101-61101-61>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%45.7%18.4%7.6%0.0%0.0%+1.4%
2Boston Red SoxALE1.5-0.198640.00.098.064.098-6498-64>99.9%>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%56.8%34.5%18.6%0.0%+0.0%+5.0%
3Baltimore OriolesALE0.60.078840.00.078.084.078-8478-84<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
4Tampa Bay Devil RaysALE-0.7-0.170910.00.070.091.070-9170-91<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Toronto Blue JaysALE-0.80.067940.00.067.094.067-9467-94<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
AL Central
1Minnesota TwinsALC0.60.092700.00.092.070.092-7092-70>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%48.0%22.4%10.0%0.0%0.0%+2.4%
2Chicago White SoxALC-0.40.083790.00.083.079.083-7983-79<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-1.8%
3Cleveland IndiansALC-0.20.080820.00.080.082.080-8280-82<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-0.6%
4Detroit TigersALC-0.40.072900.00.072.090.072-9072-90<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Kansas City RoyalsALC-1.10.0581040.00.058.0104.058-10458-104<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
AL West
1Anaheim AngelsALW0.892700.00.092.070.092-7092-70>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%49.5%24.7%11.5%0.0%+74.5%+87.1%
2Oakland AthleticsALW0.10.091710.00.091.071.091-7191-71<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-66.0%-91.4%
3Texas RangersALW0.30.089730.00.089.073.089-7389-73<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-8.5%-2.0%
4Seattle MarinersALW-0.90.063990.00.063.099.063-9963-99<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%