MLB playoff odds are based on 25000 simulations of the rest of the season and playoffs. The team's estimated quality is determined by their performance over their last 100 regular season games (even if it spans seasons) and includes a regression to the mean factor. These results are based on standings through 2001-10-07. This page does not update during the postseason.

Most Likely Scenarios

Most Likely Scenarios Table
Lg Top Seed Division Winner Division Winner Wild Card
NLSt. Louis CardinalsArizona DiamondbacksAtlanta BravesHouston Astros
ALSeattle MarinersNew York YankeesCleveland IndiansOakland Athletics
Playoff Odds Table
Current Remaining Average 90% Confidence Change
Tm Lg D SRS rSOS W L W L W L Best Worst Post WC Div LDS LCS Pennant Win WS 1 Day 7 Days 30 Days
NL East
1Atlanta BravesNLE0.50.088740.00.088.074.088-7488-74>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%45.5%20.2%6.9%0.0%+15.7%+12.0%
2Philadelphia PhilliesNLE-0.10.086760.00.086.076.086-7686-76<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-15.2%-11.3%
3New York MetsNLE-0.10.082800.00.082.080.082-8082-80<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-0.5%-0.8%
4Florida MarlinsNLE-0.20.076860.00.076.086.076-8676-86<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Montreal ExposNLE-0.80.168940.00.068.094.068-9468-94<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
NL Central
1St. Louis CardinalsNLC1.00.093690.00.093.069.093-6993-69>99.9%48.7%51.3%>99.9%53.0%27.4%10.6%0.0%+0.7%+81.4%
2Houston AstrosNLC0.90.093690.00.093.069.093-6993-69>99.9%51.3%48.7%>99.9%50.6%25.1%9.2%0.0%+0.8%+3.9%
3Chicago CubsNLC0.40.088740.00.088.074.088-7488-74<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-0.2%-40.6%
4Milwaukee BrewersNLC-1.10.068940.00.068.094.068-9468-94<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Cincinnati RedsNLC-0.70.066960.00.066.096.066-9666-96<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
6Pittsburgh PiratesNLC-1.10.0621000.00.062.0100.062-10062-100<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
NL West
1Arizona DiamondbacksNLW0.90.092700.00.092.070.092-7092-70>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%50.8%27.4%10.4%0.0%+8.4%+20.9%
2San Francisco GiantsNLW1.00.090720.00.090.072.090-7290-72<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-9.8%-32.5%
3Los Angeles DodgersNLW0.20.086760.00.086.076.086-7686-76<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-33.0%
4San Diego PadresNLW-0.20.079830.00.079.083.079-8379-83<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Colorado RockiesNLW-0.30.073890.00.073.089.073-8973-89<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Current Remaining Average 90% Confidence Change
Tm Lg D SRS rSOS W L W L W L Best Worst Post WC Div LDS LCS Pennant Win WS 1 Day 7 Days 30 Days
AL East
1New York YankeesALE0.30.095650.00.095.065.095-6595-65>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%26.1%9.2%3.8%0.0%0.0%+0.0%
2Boston Red SoxALE-0.70.082790.00.082.079.082-7982-79<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-0.1%
3Toronto Blue JaysALE-0.40.080820.00.080.082.080-8280-82<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
4Baltimore OriolesALE-1.20.163980.00.063.098.063-9863-98<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Tampa Bay Devil RaysALE-0.60.1621000.00.062.0100.062-10062-100<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
AL Central
1Cleveland IndiansALC0.10.091710.00.091.071.091-7191-71>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%28.7%7.9%3.1%0.0%0.0%+4.1%
2Minnesota TwinsALC-0.30.085770.00.085.077.085-7785-77<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-2.3%
3Chicago White SoxALC0.10.083790.00.083.079.083-7983-79<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-1.9%
4Detroit TigersALC-0.90.066960.00.066.096.066-9666-96<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Kansas City RoyalsALC-0.60.065970.00.065.097.065-9765-97<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
AL West
1Seattle MarinersALW1.9-0.1116460.00.0116.046.0116-46116-46>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%71.3%36.5%23.7%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2Oakland AthleticsALW2.4-0.1102600.00.0102.060.0102-60102-60>99.9%>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%73.9%46.4%32.3%0.0%0.0%+0.0%
3Anaheim AngelsALW-0.2-0.175870.00.075.087.075-8775-87<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
4Texas RangersALW-0.10.073890.00.073.089.073-8973-89<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%