Monday, October 12, 2009 Game Previews - Baseball-Reference.com

There are a lot of balls in the air behind the scenes at Baseball-Reference.com and one of the places they tend to hit the ground is at the interface between regular and postseason stats.

I've fixed a couple of issues with the regular and postseason stats. The game previews for postseason games now combine regular and postseason stats in (what I think) is a sensible way.

The batter vs. pitcher tools now include an option for including postseason stats as well. For example, here is Cliff Lee vs. the Rockies including postseason stats or just with regular season stats. Please let me know whatever issues you find.

From Sporcle: In honor of the finale to Boston Red Sox's unceremonious sweep at the hands of the Los Angeles Angels yesterday, can you name Boston's all-time leaders in Home Runs?

When Vladimir Guerrero drove in two runs with his ninth inning single last night, he became the 10th player in postseason history to come to bat  with his team losing with 2 outs in the ninth and hand his team the lead:

  Car#  G# Date          Series G Batter            Tm   Opp Pitcher           Score       Result Inn RoB Out Cnt Pit RBI Play Desc.
+-----+---+-------------+------+-+-----------------+---+----+-----------------+-----------+------+---+---+---+---+---+---+-------------------------+
     1   1 1941-10-05    WS     4 Charlie Keller    NYY @BRO Hugh Casey        down   3-4  2B     t 9 12-   2  -        2 Double to RF; Henrich Scores/unER; DiMaggio Scores/unER 
     2   1 1947-10-03    WS     4 Cookie Lavagetto  BRO  NYY Bill Bevens       down   1-2  2B     b 9 12-   2  -        2 *ENDED GAME*:Double to RF; Gionfriddo Scores; Miksis Scores 
     3   1 1985-10-16    NLCS   6 Jack Clark        STL @LAD Tom Niedenfuer    down   4-5  HR     t 9 -23   2 0-0   1   3 Home Run (Fly Ball to Deep LF); McGee Scores; Smith Scores 
     4   1 1985-10-20    WS     2 Terry Pendleton   STL @KCR Charlie Leibrand  down   1-2  2B     t 9 123   2 2-1   4   3 Double to LF (Line Drive to LF Line); Clark Scores; Landrum Scores; Cedeno Scores 
     5   1 1986-10-12    ALCS   5 Dave Henderson    BOS @CAL Donnie Moore      down   4-5  HR     t 9 1--   2 2-2   7   2 Home Run (Fly Ball to Deep LF); Gedman Scores 
     6   1 1988-10-04    NLCS   1 Gary Carter       NYM @LAD Jay Howell        down   1-2  2B     t 9 12-   2 0-2   3   2 Double to CF (Line Drive); Strawberry Scores; McReynolds Scores 
     7   1 1988-10-15    WS     1 Kirk Gibson       LAD  OAK Dennis Eckersley  down   3-4  HR     b 9 -2-   2 3-2   7   2 *ENDED GAME*:Home Run (Line Drive to Deep RF); Davis Scores 
     8   1 1992-10-14    NLCS   7 Francisco Cabrera ATL  PIT Stan Belinda      down   1-2  1B     b 9 123   2 2-1   4   2 *ENDED GAME*:Single to LF (Line Drive to Short LF); Justice Scores/unER; Bream Scores/unER; Berryhill to 2B 
     9   1 2005-10-17    NLCS   5 Albert Pujols     STL @HOU Brad Lidge        down   2-4  HR     t 9 12-   2 0-1   2   3 Home Run (Deep LF); Eckstein Scores; Edmonds Scores 
    10   1 2009-10-11    ALDS   3 Vladimir Guerrero LAA @BOS Jonathan Papelbo  down   5-6  1B     t 9 123   2 0-0   1   2 Single to CF (Line Drive to Short CF); Figgins Scores; Abreu Scores; Hunter to 2B 

It has also be done once in extra innings by Ivan Rodriguez in Game 3 of the 2003 NLDS.

  Car#  G# Date          Series G Batter            Tm   Opp Pitcher           Score       Result Inn RoB Out Cnt Pit RBI Play Desc.
+-----+---+-------------+------+-+-----------------+---+----+-----------------+-----------+------+---+---+---+---+---+---+-------------------------+
     1   1 2003-10-03    NLDS   3 Ivan Rodriguez    FLA  SFG Tim Worrell       down   2-3  1B     b11 123   2 1-2   5   2 *ENDED GAME*:Single to RF (Line Drive); Gonzalez Scores/unER; Pierre Scores/unER; Castillo to 2B 

Here are a few facts and figures related to this years LDSs:

• Adam Wainwright's game score of 78 was tied for the second highest in an LDS game among pitchers whose team lost the game. The only starter for a losing team with a better LDS game score was Barry Zito in game 3 of the 2001 ALDS vs. the Yankees. Here are the leaders.

  Cnt Player            Date          Series G Tm   Opp GmReslt App,Dec    IP   H  R ER BB SO HR Pit Str **GmSc** IR IS BF AB 2B 3B IBB HBP SH SF GDP SB CS Pk BK WP   ERA
 ----+-----------------+-------------+------+- ---+----+-------+---------+----+--+--+--+--+--+--+---+---+--------+--+--+--+--+--+--+---+---+--+--+---+--+--+--+--+--+------ 
    1 Barry Zito        2001-10-13    ALDS   3 OAK  NYY L  0-1  GS-8  ,L   8    2  1  1  1  6  1 110  74     79         29 26  1  0   0   2  0  0   1  0  0  0  0  0   1.12 

    2 Adam Wainwright   2009-10-08    NLDS   2 STL @LAD L  2-3  GS-8       8    3  1  1  1  7  1 109  78     78         29 27  0  0   0   1  0  0   0  0  0  0  0  0   1.12 
    3 Jerry Reuss       1981-10-07    NLDS   2 LAD @HOU L  0-1  GS-9       9    5  0  0  2  3  0             78         33 31  0  0   1   0  0  0   0  1  1  0  0  0   0.00 

    4 Kevin Tapani      1998-10-01    NLDS   2 CHC @ATL L  1-2  GS-9       9    5  1  1  3  6  1 111  70     76         35 31  0  0   0   0  1  0   0  1  0  0  1  0   1.00 

    5 Ramon Martinez    1996-10-02    NLDS   1 LAD  ATL L  1-2  GS-8       8    3  1  1  3  6  0 131  73     75         29 24  0  0   0   0  1  1   0  2  1  0  0  0   1.12 

• Alex Rodriguez's 9th inning  game tying  multiple run home run was the 13th such home run in post-season history. The team which tied the game is now 6-7 in those games. So much for momentum.

  Car#  G# Date          Series G Batter            Tm   Opp Pitcher           Score       Inn RoB Out Cnt Pit RBI Play Desc.
 -----+---+-------------+------+- -----------------+---+----+-----------------+-----------+---+---+---+---+---+---+------------------------- 
     1   1 1929-10-14    WS     5 Mule Haas         PHA  CHC Pat Malone        down   0-2  b 9 1--   1  -        2 Home Run (Deep RF); Bishop Scores 
     2   1 1953-10-05    WS     6 Carl Furillo      BRO @NYY Allie Reynolds    down   1-3  t 9 1--   1  -        2 Home Run (Deep RF); Snider Scores 
     3   1 1957-10-06    WS     4 Elston Howard     NYY @MLN Warren Spahn      down   1-4  t 9 12-   2  -        3 Home Run (Deep LF); Berra Scores; McDougald Scores 
     4   1 1964-10-12    WS     5 Tom Tresh         NYY  STL Bob Gibson        down   0-2  b 9 -2-   2  -        2 Home Run (Deep CF-RF); Mantle Scores/unER; Tresh Scores/unER 
     5   1 1975-10-14    WS     3 Dwight Evans      BOS @CIN Rawly Eastwick    down   3-5  t 9 1--   1 1-0   2   2 Home Run (Deep LF); Petrocelli Scores 
     6   1 1988-10-09    NLCS   4 Mike Scioscia     LAD @NYM Dwight Gooden     down   2-4  t 9 1--   0 0-0   1   2 Home Run (Line Drive to Deep RF); Shelby Scores 
     7   1 1992-10-11    ALCS   4 Roberto Alomar    TOR @OAK Dennis Eckersley  down   4-6  t 9 --3   0 2-2   6   2 Home Run (Fly Ball to Deep RF); White Scores 
     8   1 1998-10-01    NLDS   2 Jim Leyritz       SDP @HOU Billy Wagner      down   2-4  t 9 1--   2 3-2   8   2 Home Run (Fly Ball to Deep RF Line); Caminiti Scores 
     9   1 2000-10-05    NLDS   2 J.T. Snow         SFG  NYM Armando Benitez   down   1-4  b 9 12-   1 2-1   4   3 Home Run (RF Line); Bonds Scores; Kent Scores 
    10   1 2001-10-31    WS     4 Tino Martinez     NYY  ARI Byung-Hyun Kim    down   1-3  b 9 1--   2 0-0   1   2 Home Run (CF-RF); O'Neill Scores 
    11   1 2001-11-01    WS     5 Scott Brosius     NYY  ARI Byung-Hyun Kim    down   0-2  b 9 -2-   2 1-0   2   2 Home Run; Posada Scores   
    12   1 2003-10-07    NLCS   1 Sammy Sosa        CHC  FLA Ugueth Urbina     down   6-8  b 9 -2-   2 1-1   3   2 Home Run (Line Drive); Lofton Scores 
    13   1 2009-10-09    ALDS   2 Alex Rodriguez    NYY  MIN Joe Nathan        down   1-3  b 9 1--   0 3-1   5   2 Home Run (Fly Ball to Deep CF-RF); Teixeira Scores 

• While no player has ever hit for the cycle in post season history, Andre Ethier became the 3rd player to miss by just a single. Kaz Matsui had previously done it in 2007 NLDS as well as Lou Brock in the '68 World Series.

  Cnt Player            Date          Series G Tm   Opp GmReslt PA AB  R  H 2B 3B HR **TB** RBI BB IBB SO HBP SH SF ROE GDP SB CS BOr Positions
 ----+-----------------+-------------+------+- ---+----+-------+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+------+---+--+---+--+---+--+--+---+---+--+--+---+--------- 
    1 Andre Ethier      2009-10-10    NLDS   3 LAD @STL W  5-1   5  5  2  3  1  1  1    9     2  0   0  1   0  0  0   0   0  0  0 3rd RF        
    2 Kazuo Matsui      2007-10-04    NLDS   2 COL @PHI W 10-5   5  5  2  3  1  1  1    9     5  0   0  0   0  0  0   0   0  0  0 1st 2B        
    3 Lou Brock         1968-10-06    WS     4 STL @DET W 10-1   5  5  2  3  1  1  1    9     4  0   0  0   0  0  0   0   0  1  0 1st LF        

In 1492 Columbus sailed the ocean blue.

  Cnt Player            Year   G  From  To
+----+-----------------+----+----+----+----+
    1 Bob O'Farrell     1935 1492 1915 1935 

  Cnt Player            Year  SO  From  To
+----+-----------------+----+----+----+----+
    1 Bill Donovan      1918 1492 1901 1918 

On Friday, A. J. Burnett hit two consecutive batters in a playoff game.

Here are the most recent starts in which a batter has hit two or more batters:

  Cnt Player            Date          Series G Tm   Opp GmReslt App,Dec    IP   H  R ER BB SO HR Pit Str GmSc IR IS BF AB 2B 3B IBB HBP SH SF GDP SB CS Pk BK WP   ERA
+----+-----------------+-------------+------+-+---+----+-------+---------+----+--+--+--+--+--+--+---+---+----+--+--+--+--+--+--+---+---+--+--+---+--+--+--+--+--+------+
    1 A.J. Burnett      2009-10-09    ALDS   2 NYY  MIN W  4-3  GS-6       6    3  1  1  5  6  0  95  57   63       27 20  0  1   0   2  0  0   0  1  0  0  0  0   1.50 

    2 C.C. Sabathia     2007-10-18    ALCS   5 CLE  BOS L  1-7  GS-6  ,L   6   10  4  4  2  6  1 112  70   40       29 25  2  1   0   2  0  0   2  0  0  0  0  1   6.00 
    3 Jeff Francis      2007-10-11    NLCS   1 COL @ARI W  5-1  GS-7  ,W   6.2  7  1  1  1  4  0  89  54   59       27 24  2  0   0   2  0  0   2  0  0  0  0  0   1.35 

    4 Nate Robertson    2006-10-03    ALDS   1 DET @NYY L  4-8  GS-6  ,L   5.2 12  7  7  0  1  1  96  62   18       30 28  3  0   0   2  0  0   0  1  1  0  0  0  11.12 

    5 Jose Contreras    2005-10-22    WS     1 CHW  HOU W  5-3  GS-7  ,W   7    6  3  3  0  2  1  82  56   55       29 25  3  0   0   3  1  0   1  0  0  0  0  0   3.86 
    6 Roy Oswalt        2005-10-19    NLCS   6 HOU @STL W  5-1  GS-7  ,W   7    3  1  1  1  6  0 118  77   72       27 23  1  0   0   2  0  1   0  0  0  0  0  0   1.29 
    7 Tim Wakefield     2005-10-07    ALDS   3 BOS  CHW L  3-5  GS-6  ,L   5.1  6  4  4  1  4  1  71  49   43       23 20  3  0   0   2  0  0   1  0  1  0  0  0   6.75 
    8 Mark Mulder       2005-10-06    NLDS   2 STL  SDP W  6-2  GS-7  ,W   6.2  8  1  1  1  2  0  87  56   55       27 24  1  0   0   2  0  0   4  0  0  0  0  0   1.35 
    9 Matt Clement      2005-10-04    ALDS   1 BOS @CHW L  2-14 GS-4  ,L   3.1  7  8  8  0  0  3  64  41   14       18 15  1  0   0   2  1  0   0  1  1  0  0  0  21.60 

   10 Pedro Martinez    2004-10-18    ALCS   5 BOS  NYY W  5-4  GS-6       6    7  4  4  5  6  1 111  62   43       31 24  1  0   0   2  0  0   1  0  0  0  0  0   6.00 
   11 Javier Vazquez    2004-10-09    ALDS   4 NYY @MIN W  6-5  GS-5       5    7  5  5  2  6  1  98  59   37       25 19  2  0   0   2  0  2   0  1  1  0  0  0   9.00 
   12 Felix Heredia     2004-10-08    ALDS   3 NYY @MIN W  8-4   8-9       0.1  0  2  2  0  0  0   6   3       1  0  3  1  0  0   0   2  0  0   0  0  0  0  0  0  54.00 
   13 Jeff Weaver       2004-10-07    NLDS   2 LAD @STL L  3-8  GS-5  ,L   4.2  8  6  6  2  4  0  90  57   26       26 21  2  1   0   2  1  0   0  0  0  0  0  1  11.57 

   14 Tim Wakefield     2003-10-02    ALDS   2 BOS @OAK L  1-5  GS-6  ,L   6    4  5  3  3  7  0 111  68   52       28 23  1  0   0   2  0  0   0  0  0  0  0  0   4.50 

   15 Matt Morris       2002-10-14    NLCS   5 STL @SFG L  1-2  GS-9  ,L   8.2  6  2  2  2  4  0 100  62   66       36 29  1  0   1   3  1  1   1  0  0  0  0  0   2.08 

Turns out that the last time a single pitcher hit two batters in a row was in the 2004 game by Felix Heredia. He led off the 9th inning by hitting two Twins in a row. Sound familiar? A.J. Burnett, also pitching for the Yankees, hit two Twins in a row last night.

This search might not catch all consecutive hit-by-pitch instances. Since it looks at the pitching performance just for any one pitcher, it would miss cases where a pitcher comes out of a game after hitting a batter and the reliever hits the first guy he faces.

It's amazing how many of these games involve the Yankees, although of course they have had a lot of post-season appearances. Of the last 22 games in which 1 pitcher has hit at least 2 batters, the Yankees have been involved 10 times. This includes 5 times on each side.

I also noticed this game in which Jimmy Key hit 3 batters in the first inning (not consecutively.)

In Game 2 of the 2009 ALDS between the Twins and Yankees today, Minnesota had 12 hits, 2 batters hit by a pitch, and collected 7 walks on the evening. That's a total of 21 batters reaching base (in 11 innings worth of play). Yet, the Twins only scored 3 runs on the evening.

How many other times has a team had 21+ baserunners in a post-season game and scored 3 runs or less? Thanks to Baseball-Reference.com's Play Index Post Season Team Batting Game Finder, we can see the answer:

  Cnt Date       Series G Tm   Opp GmReslt  PA  AB  R  H 2B 3B HR RBI BB TOB IBB SO HBP SH SF ROE GDP SB CS LOB Batrs
+----+-------------+------+-+---+----+-------+---+---+--+--+--+--+--+---+--+---+---+--+---+--+--+---+---+--+--+---+-----+
    1 2003-10-03 NLDS   3 SFG @FLA L  3-4   54  43  3 12  1  0  0   3  8  22   4  6   1  2  0   1   0  0  1  18    19
    2 1999-10-17 NLCS   5 ATL @NYM L  3-4   67  55  3 13  6  1  0   3 10  25   5 19   1  1  0   1   1  3  1  19    22
   

Yes, besides the Twins today, it's only happened twice before in baseball history. I guess that makes it pretty hard to do, huh?

A.J. Burnett makes his first ever post-season career start this evening - when the Yankees host the Twins in Game 2 of the ALDS. This got me wondering: How do starting pitchers perform in their first ever start in the post-season? More so, which pitchers, since the Wildcard has come into play, have been excellent in their first career post-season start?

To address this, I used Baseball-Reference.com's Play Index Post-Season Pitching Game Finder and set it to show "In the Postseason, From 1995 to 2009, as Starter, In first 1 games, (requiring game_score>=70), sorted by most recent date in a game." And, this is what it found:

  Cnt CarGm Player            Date       Series G Tm   Opp GmReslt App,Dec    IP   H  R ER BB SO HR Pit Str GmSc IR IS BF AB 2B 3B IBB HBP SH SF GDP SB CS Pk BK WP   ERA
+----+-----+-----------------+-------------+------+-+---+----+-------+---------+----+--+--+--+--+--+--+---+---+----+--+--+--+--+--+--+---+---+--+--+---+--+--+--+--+--+------+
    1     1 Cliff Lee         2009-10-07 NLDS   1 PHI  COL W  5-1  CG 9  ,W   9    6  1  1  0  5  0 113  79   76       32 32  3  0   0   0  0  0   0  0  0  0  0  1   1.00
    2     1 Fausto Carmona    2007-10-05 ALDS   2 CLE  NYY W  2-1  GS-9       9    3  1  1  2  5  1 113  77   80       31 29  0  0   0   0  0  0   2  1  0  0  0  0   1.00
    3     1 Brandon Webb      2007-10-03 NLDS   1 ARI  CHC W  3-1  GS-7  ,W   7    4  1  1  3  9  0  89  58   71       30 26  1  0   0   1  0  0   0  0  0  0  0  1   1.29
    4     1 Chris Young       2006-10-07 NLDS   3 SDP @STL W  3-1  GS-7  ,W   6.2  4  0  0  2  9  0 102  63   73       25 23  1  0   1   0  0  0   1  1  0  0  0  0   0.00
    5     1 Jon Garland       2005-10-14 ALCS   3 CHW @LAA W  5-2  CG 9  ,W   9    4  2  2  1  7  1 118  83   77       30 29  1  0   0   0  0  0   1  0  0  0  0  0   2.00
    6     1 Mark Prior        2003-10-03 NLDS   3 CHC  ATL W  3-1  CG 9  ,W   9    2  1  1  4  7  0 133  89   82       34 28  1  0   0   1  0  1   1  0  0  0  0  1   1.00
    7     1 Josh Beckett      2003-09-30 NLDS   1 FLA @SFG L  0-2  GS-7  ,L   7    2  1  1  5  9  0 112  63   73       28 23  0  0   1   0  0  0   0  0  0  0  0  1   1.29
    8     1 Woody Williams    2001-10-10 NLDS   2 STL @ARI W  4-1  GS-8  ,W   7    4  1  1  1  9  0 133  88   73       26 25  0  0   0   0  0  0   0  0  0  0  0  0   1.29
    9     1 Bobby Jones       2000-10-08 NLDS   4 NYM  SFG W  4-0  SHO9  ,W   9    1  0  0  2  5  0 116  73   88       30 28  1  0   0   0  0  0   0  0  0  0  0  0   0.00
   10     1 Kevin Millwood    1999-10-06 NLDS   2 ATL  HOU W  5-1  CG 9  ,W   9    1  1  1  0  8  1           89       29 29  0  0   0   0  0  0   0  0  0  0  0  0   1.00
   11     1 Orlando Hernandez 1998-10-10 ALCS   4 NYY @CLE W  4-0  GS-8  ,W   7    3  0  0  2  6  0 115  69   75       27 24  1  0   0   1  0  0   0  2  0  0  0  0   0.00
   12     1 Jeff Fassero      1997-10-04 ALDS   3 SEA @BAL W  4-2  GS-9  ,W   8    3  1  1  4  3  0 136  82   71       30 25  1  0   0   0  1  0   0  0  1  1  0  0   1.12
   13     1 Kevin Brown       1997-09-30 NLDS   1 FLA  SFG W  2-1  GS-7       7    4  1  1  0  5  1  97  60   70       24 24  1  0   0   0  0  0   0  0  1  0  0  0   1.29
   14     1 Ismael Valdez     1995-10-04 NLDS   2 LAD  CIN L  4-5  GS-7       7    3  2  0  1  6  1  99  61   72       25 24  0  0   0   0  0  0   1  0  0  0  0  0   0.00
   
Games found: 14.

That's it - just 14 games. I would have expected more.  That's 14 times out of 134 chances.    Needless to say, it doesn't happen very often.

The possibility exists that the Phillies and Dodgers will meet in the NLCS for the second straight year. That got me wondering about the last time the same two teams met up in consecutive years in either championship series. Think about it for a minute and then click through for the answer.

Read the rest of this entry »

I got curious about how big the edge is for post-season teams playing at home. This is actually pretty easy to research with the PI.

In post-season history through 2008, home teams have won 668 playoff games. I found that by doing a Pitching Game Finder search, limiting to playoff games, limiting to home team, and limiting to wins. At the bottom of the results page is the total number of such games. Doing the same for losses shows 560 such games. So there you have it--home teams in the playoffs are 668-560, which is a winning percentage of .548.

Let's compare that to the regular season. The PI covers only 1954 to present, and through 2008 the home team has won 58,958 games. Meanwhile they have lost 50,335. (I got these numbers also with Pitching Game Finders, just going on regular season games instead of post-season.) That's a winning percentage of .539.

So in the playoffs, historically, the home team has had a slightly bigger edge than they have during the regular season.

In the wild card era (1995 up to games through 2008) home teams in the playoffs are 243-207, a .540 winning percentage. In the regular season over that same span, home teams are 17,918-15,343, a .539 winning percentage.

It seems that the extra edge home teams once enjoyed in the post-season has been eradicated in the wild card era. It's interesting to wonder why this is the case.

Historically, the schedule was more balanced meaning that all teams played a similar schedule. That's different today, where teams play many more games within their own division, meaning that more balanced divisions tend to see more even records (think about the NL Central in recent years) whereas divisions with a couple of crummy teams tend to produce teams with lots of wins (think about the AL East, where bad Baltimore and, until recently, Tampa Bay teams allowed the Yankees and Red Sox to rack up great records.) This means that in the past, teams with a better record probably really were better, whereas these days the unbalanced scheule means a 95-win team may not be as good as an 85-win team.

So historically in the playoffs the teams with home-field advantage tended to be truly better teams whereas these days it's a little more random.