Starters Who Starred In Post-Season Debut (Since ’95)
Posted by Steve Lombardi on October 9, 2009
A.J. Burnett makes his first ever post-season career start this evening - when the Yankees host the Twins in Game 2 of the ALDS. This got me wondering: How do starting pitchers perform in their first ever start in the post-season? More so, which pitchers, since the Wildcard has come into play, have been excellent in their first career post-season start?
To address this, I used Baseball-Reference.com's Play Index Post-Season Pitching Game Finder and set it to show "In the Postseason, From 1995 to 2009, as Starter, In first 1 games, (requiring game_score>=70), sorted by most recent date in a game." And, this is what it found:
Cnt CarGm Player Date Series G Tm Opp GmReslt App,Dec IP H R ER BB SO HR Pit Str GmSc IR IS BF AB 2B 3B IBB HBP SH SF GDP SB CS Pk BK WP ERA +----+-----+-----------------+-------------+------+-+---+----+-------+---------+----+--+--+--+--+--+--+---+---+----+--+--+--+--+--+--+---+---+--+--+---+--+--+--+--+--+------+ 1 1 Cliff Lee 2009-10-07 NLDS 1 PHI COL W 5-1 CG 9 ,W 9 6 1 1 0 5 0 113 79 76 32 32 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1.00 2 1 Fausto Carmona 2007-10-05 ALDS 2 CLE NYY W 2-1 GS-9 9 3 1 1 2 5 1 113 77 80 31 29 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 0 0 0 0 1.00 3 1 Brandon Webb 2007-10-03 NLDS 1 ARI CHC W 3-1 GS-7 ,W 7 4 1 1 3 9 0 89 58 71 30 26 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1.29 4 1 Chris Young 2006-10-07 NLDS 3 SDP @STL W 3-1 GS-7 ,W 6.2 4 0 0 2 9 0 102 63 73 25 23 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 5 1 Jon Garland 2005-10-14 ALCS 3 CHW @LAA W 5-2 CG 9 ,W 9 4 2 2 1 7 1 118 83 77 30 29 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 2.00 6 1 Mark Prior 2003-10-03 NLDS 3 CHC ATL W 3-1 CG 9 ,W 9 2 1 1 4 7 0 133 89 82 34 28 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1.00 7 1 Josh Beckett 2003-09-30 NLDS 1 FLA @SFG L 0-2 GS-7 ,L 7 2 1 1 5 9 0 112 63 73 28 23 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1.29 8 1 Woody Williams 2001-10-10 NLDS 2 STL @ARI W 4-1 GS-8 ,W 7 4 1 1 1 9 0 133 88 73 26 25 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1.29 9 1 Bobby Jones 2000-10-08 NLDS 4 NYM SFG W 4-0 SHO9 ,W 9 1 0 0 2 5 0 116 73 88 30 28 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00 10 1 Kevin Millwood 1999-10-06 NLDS 2 ATL HOU W 5-1 CG 9 ,W 9 1 1 1 0 8 1 89 29 29 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1.00 11 1 Orlando Hernandez 1998-10-10 ALCS 4 NYY @CLE W 4-0 GS-8 ,W 7 3 0 0 2 6 0 115 69 75 27 24 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0.00 12 1 Jeff Fassero 1997-10-04 ALDS 3 SEA @BAL W 4-2 GS-9 ,W 8 3 1 1 4 3 0 136 82 71 30 25 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1.12 13 1 Kevin Brown 1997-09-30 NLDS 1 FLA SFG W 2-1 GS-7 7 4 1 1 0 5 1 97 60 70 24 24 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1.29 14 1 Ismael Valdez 1995-10-04 NLDS 2 LAD CIN L 4-5 GS-7 7 3 2 0 1 6 1 99 61 72 25 24 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0.00 Games found: 14.
That's it - just 14 games. I would have expected more. That's 14 times out of 134 chances. Needless to say, it doesn't happen very often.
October 9th, 2009 at 1:28 pm
[...] The odds are really against it happening. [...]
October 9th, 2009 at 2:17 pm
11.1% of all regular season starts since 1995 are at least a 70 Game Score, compared to the 10.4% you found above. Of course, the postseason pitchers should be a better group overall, but they are also facing better offenses. 14.1% of all postseason starts since 1995 have been at least a 70. So the average pitcher making his first postseason start appears to perform slightly worse than those who have started before. First-timers are probably lesser pitchers overall, and it is possible that nerves have some effect as well.
Anyway, one can have a very good start while coming up short of 70. Lincecum's average Game Score this season was 64; I'd certainly take an average Lincecum start.
October 9th, 2009 at 2:30 pm
Johnny - True, but, it could be suggested that there's more pressure in making your first ever career start in the post-season than making career start # 67 in a game against the Royals, in July, when your team is 15 games out of first...
So, does it make sense to use "all regular season starts GS 70+ ratio" as the yardstick for first ever career start in the post-season? Just a thought...
October 10th, 2009 at 12:09 am
Well I mainly wanted to provide some context to the numbers. I wasn't really sure until I looked further whether 10% of starts at that threshold was poor, typical, or what. A .300 BA in the postseason isn't the same as a .300 BA against the Royals either, but at least we have an idea what it means.
Anyway, a nice average Greinke start of 63 for Burnett tonight (if I remember how to calculate GS correctly...)