Roy Halladay
Posted by Andy on May 11, 2009
Roy Halladay doesn't get half the credit he deserves as one of the best active pitchers.
Among active pitchers, he's got the 3rd-best career winning percentage, behind just Johan Santana and the (sort of still active) Pedro Martinez.
He's one of just 8 active pitchers with multiple 20-win seasons, or 6 such pitchers if you dont' count Tom Glavine or Pedro.
And get this: he ranks only 28th among active pitchers in games started, and yet ranks 6th in shutouts, 6th in complete games, and 15th in wins.
What hurts Halladay (no pun intended) are his injuries and playing for a lower-profile Canadian team. The Blue Jays haven't made the post-season since 1993, well before Halladay's time, and he's made more than 21 starts in a season only 6 times in 12 seasons, although he's made more than 30 each of the last 3 full years.
Check out the most similar pitchers to Halladay through age 31:
Compare Stats to Similars
- Tim Hudson (970)
- Don Newcombe (945)
- Mike Mussina (942)
- Dennis Leonard (940)
- John Candelaria (929)
- Ramon Martinez (929)
- Jack McDowell (928)
- Kevin Millwood (918)
- Scott McGregor (918)
- Andy Pettitte (917)
Not a Hall of Famer among them although Mussina will get some consideration, Pettitte a sniff, and Hudson still has a small chance if he can get healthy and return to form.
I think Halladay's a better pitcher than each of the 10 guys on that list, and yet he compares to them statistically because he hasn't logged as many innings as he should have by now. Halladay's 162-game average is a record of 17-8 and 230 IP. If he had actually pitched that much, by now he'd have about 2300 IP (instead of 1859) and about 167 wins instead of 137. That means he might have had a shot at 250 career wins but he has almost no shot.
In terms of Halladay's reputation, the best thing that could happen for him would be to sign with a bigger-market team and avearge 16 or so wins for the next 8 seasons. He's have a higher profile and finish with about 260 wins. But don't hold your breath on either of those things happening.
May 11th, 2009 at 11:02 am
From my perspective, Halladay is widely regarded as one of the best pitchers around. He's won a CYA, made several All-Star teams, gets press for being one of the few guys still capable of completing his starts. I don't see him as underrated at all.
The comp lists don't work that well for modern-day SP, because they pitch many fewer IP than top SP of the past.
I think Halladay has a decent shot at 250 wins. I've realized when looking at careers of guys with lots of wins that they make their numbers in their 30s, not their 20s. Meaning that pitchers who pile up lots of wins when young tend to burn out. The guys who get to 300 make it not because they got off to a blazing start, but because they stayed healthy and pitched a long time. Therefore it's nearly impossible to predict which 30-year-old pitchers will make it. But Halladay appears to have two key components -- he's extremely talented and he wasn't overworked in his youth.
May 11th, 2009 at 11:53 am
I see your pun and raise you irony: 'Doc' Halladay.
May 11th, 2009 at 12:32 pm
Johnny--good arguments and I agree, except that I don't think you're a good judge of Halladay's general reputation because you're too smart and probably ready too many good sources.
May 11th, 2009 at 12:52 pm
Heh -- I appreciate that, I think.
Small sample size, but my boss seems to be an average, casual baseball fan, and he thinks Halladay is awesome. Of course, he roots for Boston and so his team has a lot of interaction with Toronto. A west coast National League fan may indeed be somewhat oblivious to Halladay's talent.
Anyway, he's one of my favorite pitchers. I'm trying to remember why I traded him off my fantasy team a couple years ago....