Today, I was wondering, from 2002 through 2008, how many big league pitchers younger than age 29 have posted four or more seasons where they made at least 32 starts, threw at least 190 innings, and won at least 10 games?

Look at the list:

                   From  To   Ages Seasons
+-----------------+----+----+-----+-------+
 Jon Garland       2002 2008 22-28       7
 Barry Zito        2002 2007 24-29       6
 Mark Buehrle      2002 2008 23-29       6
 Johan Santana     2004 2008 25-29       5
 John Lackey       2003 2007 24-28       5
 Javier Vazquez    2002 2006 25-29       5
 Roy Oswalt        2002 2007 24-29       5
 Brandon Webb      2005 2008 26-29       4
 Danny Haren       2005 2008 24-27       4
 Dontrelle Willis  2004 2007 22-25       4
 Jason Marquis     2004 2007 25-28       4
 Carlos Zambrano   2003 2007 22-26       4

We can see that Jon Garland is the only pitcher to make this cut in all seven seasons (between 2002 and 2008).  Is that young and durable, or what?

Four hundred total bases in a season is one of the truly magical numbers. It's far rarer than hitting .300 or driving in 100 runs in a season. In fact, in baseball history, it's been done just 29 times:

  Cnt Player            Year  TB Age Tm  Lg  G   PA  AB  R   H  2B 3B HR RBI  BB IBB  SO HBP  SH  SF GDP  SB CS   BA   OBP   SLG   OPS  Positions
+----+-----------------+----+---+---+---+--+---+---+---+---+---+--+--+--+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+-----+-----+-----+-----+---------+
    1 Sammy Sosa        2001 425  32 CHC NL 160 711 577 146 189 34  5 64 160 116  37 153   6   0  12   6   0  2  .328  .437  .737 1.174 *9        
    2 Todd Helton       2001 402  27 COL NL 159 696 587 132 197 54  2 49 146  98  15 104   5   1   5  14   7  5  .336  .432  .685 1.117 *3        
    3 Luis Gonzalez     2001 419  33 ARI NL 162 728 609 128 198 36  7 57 142 100  24  83  14   0   5  14   1  1  .325  .429  .688 1.117 *7        
    4 Barry Bonds       2001 411  36 SFG NL 153 664 476 129 156 32  2 73 137 177  35  93   9   0   2   5  13  3  .328  .515  .863 1.378 *7/D      
    5 Todd Helton       2000 405  26 COL NL 160 697 580 138 216 59  2 42 147 103  22  61   4   0  10  12   5  3  .372  .463  .698 1.161 *3        
    6 Sammy Sosa        1998 416  29 CHC NL 159 722 643 134 198 20  0 66 158  73  14 171   1   0   5  20  18  9  .308  .377  .647 1.024 *9/8      
    7 Larry Walker      1997 409  30 COL NL 153 664 568 143 208 46  4 49 130  78  14  90  14   0   4  15  33  8  .366  .452  .720 1.172 *9/38D    
    8 Jim Rice          1978 406  25 BOS AL 163 746 677 121 213 25 15 46 139  58   7 126   5   1   5  15   7  5  .315  .370  .600  .970 *7D9/8    
    9 Hank Aaron        1959 400  25 MLN NL 154 693 629 116 223 46  7 39 123  51  17  54   4   0   9  19   8  0  .355  .401  .636 1.037 *98/5     
   10 Stan Musial       1948 429  27 STL NL 155 694 611 135 230 46 18 39 131  79   0  34   3   1   0  18   7  0  .376  .450  .702 1.152 987/3     
   11 Joe Medwick       1937 406  25 STL NL 156 677 633 111 237 56 10 31 154  41   0  50   2   1   0  11   4  0  .374  .414  .641 1.055 *7        
   12 Joe DiMaggio      1937 418  22 NYY AL 151 692 621 151 215 35 15 46 167  64   0  37   5   2   0   0   3  0  .346  .412  .673 1.085 *8        
   13 Hal Trosky        1936 405  23 CLE AL 151 671 629 124 216 45  9 42 162  36   0  58   3   3   0   0   6  5  .343  .382  .644 1.026 *3/4      
   14 Lou Gehrig        1936 403  33 NYY AL 155 719 579 167 205 37  7 49 152 130   0  46   7   3   0   0   3  4  .354  .478  .696 1.174 *3        
   15 Lou Gehrig        1934 409  31 NYY AL 154 690 579 128 210 40  6 49 165 109   0  31   2   0   0   0   9  5  .363  .465  .706 1.171 *3/6      
   16 Jimmie Foxx       1933 403  25 PHA AL 149 670 573 125 204 37  9 48 163  96   0  93   1   0   0   0   2  2  .356  .449  .703 1.152 *3/6      
   17 Chuck Klein       1932 420  27 PHI NL 154 711 650 152 226 50 15 38 137  60   0  49   1   0   0   0  20  0  .348  .404  .646 1.050 *9        
   18 Jimmie Foxx       1932 438  24 PHA AL 154 701 585 151 213 33  9 58 169 116   0  96   0   0   0   0   3  7  .364  .469  .749 1.218 *35       
   19 Lou Gehrig        1931 410  28 NYY AL 155 738 619 163 211 31 15 46 184 117   0  56   0   2   0   0  17 12  .341  .446  .662 1.108 *3/9      
   20 Lou Gehrig        1930 419  27 NYY AL 154 703 581 143 220 42 17 41 174 101   0  63   3  18   0   0  12 14  .379  .473  .721 1.194 *3/7      
   21 Babe Herman       1930 416  27 BRO NL 153 699 614 143 241 48 11 35 130  66   0  56   4  15   0   0  18  0  .393  .455  .678 1.133 *9        
   22 Chuck Klein       1930 445  25 PHI NL 156 719 648 158 250 59  8 40 170  54   0  50   4  13   0   0   4  0  .386  .436  .687 1.123 *9        
   23 Hack Wilson       1930 423  30 CHC NL 155 709 585 146 208 35  6 56 191 105   0  84   1  18   0   0   3  0  .356  .454  .723 1.177 *8        
   24 Chuck Klein       1929 405  24 PHI NL 149 679 616 126 219 45  6 43 145  54   0  61   0   9   0   0   5  0  .356  .407  .657 1.064 *98       
   25 Rogers Hornsby    1929 409  33 CHC NL 156 712 602 156 229 47  8 39 149  87   0  65   1  22   0   0   2  0  .380  .459  .679 1.138 *4        
+----+-----------------+----+---+---+---+--+---+---+---+---+---+--+--+--+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+-----+-----+-----+-----+---------+
  Cnt Player            Year  TB Age Tm  Lg  G   PA  AB  R   H  2B 3B HR RBI  BB IBB  SO HBP  SH  SF GDP  SB CS   BA   OBP   SLG   OPS  Positions
+----+-----------------+----+---+---+---+--+---+---+---+---+---+--+--+--+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+-----+-----+-----+-----+---------+
   26 Babe Ruth         1927 417  32 NYY AL 151 691 540 158 192 29  8 60 164 137   0  89   0  14   0   0   7  6  .356  .486  .772 1.258 *97       
   27 Lou Gehrig        1927 447  24 NYY AL 155 717 584 149 218 52 18 47 175 109   0  84   3  21   0   0  10  8  .373  .474  .765 1.239 *3        
   28 Rogers Hornsby    1922 450  26 STL NL 154 704 623 141 250 46 14 42 152  65   0  50   1  15   0   0  17 12  .401  .459  .722 1.181 *4        
   29 Babe Ruth         1921 457  26 NYY AL 152 693 540 177 204 44 16 59 171 145   0  81   4   4   0   0  17 13  .378  .512  .846 1.358 *78/13   

A few things to notice about this list:

• So much for the claim that the current is era is the greatest offensive era in history. 19 of the 29 seasons came before 1940. Keep in mind that there were fewer games in a season back then, too, making it so much more difficult.
• 2001 was a flukey year, with 4 different guys doing it. But it's not so flukey, with 6 other years with multiple guys doing it, including another quartet in 1930.
• Most of these seasons are also among the highest single-season RBI totals.

There have been some near misses recently, although it's surprising that this list is actually shorter than the guys to break 400.

  Cnt Player            Year  TB Age Tm  Lg  G   PA  AB  R   H  2B 3B HR RBI  BB IBB  SO HBP  SH  SF GDP  SB CS   BA   OBP   SLG   OPS  Positions
+----+-----------------+----+---+---+---+--+---+---+---+---+---+--+--+--+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+-----+-----+-----+-----+---------+
    1 Derrek Lee        2005 393  29 CHC NL 158 691 594 120 199 50  3 46 107  85  23 109   5   0   7  12  15  3  .335  .418  .662 1.080 *3        
    2 Albert Pujols     2003 394  23 STL NL 157 685 591 137 212 51  1 43 124  79  12  65  10   0   5  13   5  1  .359  .439  .667 1.106 *73/D     
    3 Alex Rodriguez    2001 393  25 TEX AL 162 732 632 133 201 34  1 52 135  75   6 131  16   0   9  17  18  3  .318  .399  .622 1.021 *6/D      
    4 Sammy Sosa        1999 397  30 CHC NL 162 712 625 114 180 24  2 63 141  78   8 171   3   0   6  17   7  8  .288  .367  .635 1.002 *98       
    5 Albert Belle      1998 399  31 CHW AL 163 706 609 113 200 48  2 49 152  81  10  84   1   0  15  17   6  4  .328  .399  .655 1.054 *7/D      
    6 Ken Griffey       1997 393  27 SEA AL 157 704 608 125 185 34  3 56 147  76  23 121   8   0  12  12  15  4  .304  .382  .646 1.028 *8/D7     
    7 Ellis Burks       1996 392  31 COL NL 156 685 613 142 211 45  8 40 128  61   2 114   6   3   2  19  32  6  .344  .408  .639 1.047 *78       
    8 Jimmie Foxx       1938 398  30 BOS AL 149 685 565 139 197 33  9 50 175 119   0  76   0   1   0   0   5  4  .349  .462  .704 1.166 *3        
    9 Hank Greenberg    1937 397  26 DET AL 154 701 594 137 200 49 14 40 183 102   0 101   3   2   0   0   8  3  .337  .436  .668 1.104 *3        
   10 Bill Terry        1930 392  31 NYG NL 154 710 633 139 254 39 15 23 129  57   0  33   1  19   0   0   8  0  .401  .452  .619 1.071 *3        
   11 Al Simmons        1930 392  28 PHA AL 138 611 554 152 211 41 16 36 165  39   0  34   1  17   0   0   9  2  .381  .423  .708 1.131 *7/8      
   12 Lefty O'Doul      1929 397  32 PHI NL 154 731 638 152 254 35  6 32 122  76   0  19   4  13   0   0   2  0  .398  .465  .622 1.087 *79       
   13 Al Simmons        1925 392  23 PHA AL 153 696 654 122 253 43 12 24 129  35   0  41   1   6   0   0   7 14  .387  .419  .599 1.018 *8        
   14 Babe Ruth         1924 391  29 NYY AL 153 681 529 143 200 39  7 46 121 142   0  81   4   6   0   0   9 13  .378  .513  .739 1.252 *97/8     
   15 Babe Ruth         1923 399  28 NYY AL 152 699 522 151 205 45 13 41 131 170   0  93   4   3   0   0  17 21  .393  .545  .764 1.309 97/83     
   16 George Sisler     1920 399  27 SLB AL 154 692 631 137 257 49 18 19 122  46   0  19   2  13   0   0  42 17  .407  .449  .632 1.081 *3/1      

You think you know the answer, right? Mark McGwire in 1987, with 49 HR, right?

Not so fast. McGwire has the record for a rookie, but 1987 wasn't McGwire's first year. He had 53 at-bats in 1986.

That's why when you search for most HR in a player's first season, he doesn't appear on thist list:

  Cnt Player            **HR** Year Age Tm  Lg  G   PA  AB  R   H  2B 3B RBI  BB IBB  SO HBP  SH  SF GDP  SB CS   BA   OBP   SLG   OPS  Positions
+----+-----------------+------+----+---+---+--+---+---+---+---+---+--+--+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+-----+-----+-----+-----+---------+
    1 Frank Robinson      38   1956  20 CIN NL 152 668 572 122 166 27  6  83  64   7  95  20   8   4  14   8  4  .290  .379  .558  .937 *78       
    2 Wally Berger        38   1930  24 BSN NL 151 625 555  98 172 27 14 119  54   0  69   4  12   0   0   3  0  .310  .375  .614  .989 *7        
    3 Albert Pujols       37   2001  21 STL NL 161 676 590 112 194 47  4 130  69   6  93   9   1   7  21   1  3  .329  .403  .610 1.013 5379/D    
    4 Ryan Braun          34   2007  23 MIL NL 113 492 451  91 146 26  6  97  29   1 112   7   0   5  13  15  5  .324  .370  .634 1.004 *5        
    5 Jimmie Hall         33   1963  25 MIN AL 156 571 497  88 129 21  5  80  63   4 101   0   9   2   8   3  3  .260  .342  .521  .863 *8*79     
    6 Ted Williams        31   1939  20 BOS AL 149 677 565 131 185 44 11 145 107   0  64   2   3   0  10   2  1  .327  .436  .609 1.045 *9        
    7 Pete Incaviglia     30   1986  22 TEX AL 153 606 540  82 135 21  2  88  55   2 185   4   0   7   9   3  2  .250  .320  .463  .783 *9D/7     
    8 Joe DiMaggio        29   1936  21 NYY AL 138 668 637 132 206 44 15 125  24   0  39   4   3   0   0   4  0  .323  .352  .576  .928 789       
    9 Evan Longoria       27   2008  22 TBR AL 122 508 448  67 122 31  2  85  46   4 122   6   0   8   8   7  0  .272  .343  .531  .874 *5/6D     
   10 Dan Uggla           27   2006  26 FLA NL 154 683 611 105 172 26  7  90  48   1 123   9   7   8   5   6  6  .282  .339  .480  .819 *4/D      

That's sort of a good news / bad news thing about the way the PI is set up. Sometimes, you'd like to be able to ignore cups of coffee that don't constitute full rookie seasons, and sometimes you don't care.

Since 1901, only 8 pitchers have started 200 games and finished 200 games. Before anybody writes it in the comments, look up what the Games Finished stat means. It does not includes complete games, but only relief appearances where the pitcher records the last out for his team in the game.

Anyway, give yourself some time to think about it, then click here for the answer. Read the rest of this entry »

Ron Gant is one of just 6 guys to have multiple seasons with 30 HR but no more than 85 RBI:

                   From  To   Ages Seasons Link to Individual Seasons
+-----------------+----+----+-----+-------+------------------------------+
 Frank Robinson    1956 1960 20-24       3 Ind. Seasons
 Barry Bonds       1994 1999 29-34       2 Ind. Seasons
 Mickey Tettleton  1992 1995 31-34       2 Ind. Seasons
 Ron Gant          1990 1996 25-31       2 Ind. Seasons
 Tom Brunansky     1984 1987 23-26       2 Ind. Seasons
 Willie Stargell   1970 1979 30-39       2 Ind. Seasons

I don't know what to make of this. I always felt that Gant was not a very productive player and that his HR totals made him seem more valuable than he actually was. I sort of always wondered if he produced fewer non-HR RBI than other guys with similar HR totals.

Here's what I'm talking about.

First let's start with a snippet of the career HR list:

I'm going to ignore Albert Pujols since he's still active (and so his HR total doesn't reflect a career effort.) I'm also going to ignore Hank Greenberg and Roy Sievers because they played some before 1956 and I can't get their entire career breakdowns.

So that leaves us with this comparison group: Green, Vaughn, Horton, Carter, Parrish, Gant, Castilla, and Fielder.

These 8 guys all had basically the same number of career homers.

Careeer RBI: Carter 1225, Horton 1163, Castilla 1105, Parrish 1070, Green 1070, Vaughn 1064, Fielder 1008, Gant 1008

Career strikeouts: Parrish 1527, Vaugh 1429, Gant 1411, Fielder 1316, Green 1315, Horton 1313, Castilla 1069, Carter 997

A few notes: clearly Gary Carter is the best player in this group, with the most homers and fewest strikeouts. Gant ties with Fielder for fewest RBI despite the fact that Gant played in 362 more games than Fielder (remember that Fielder played in Japan for a stretch.) Gant is towards the front of the pack in strikeouts

But these totals are a tough gauge since we care more about rate statistics and RBI totals have a lot to do with the strength of the teams that these guys played on.

Here's what I really want to know, though.

Check out Ron Gant's HR log. Right under the main box, you can see that he had 489 RBI on his 321 career HR. That means he had 519 RBI during plate appearances that results in something other than HR. So, 48.5% of his career RBI came on homers.

Let's see what the percentages are for the other 7 players (I checked each of their career HR logs and made the above calculation.)

Carter 42.5%, Castilla 44.9%, Horton 47.4%, Parrish 47.8%, Green 47.9%, Gant 48.5%, Vaughn 50.5%, Fielder 53.8%

So remember, these numbers mean the percentage of that player's career RBI that came on homers. The implication is that the higher the number, the fewer other run-scoring hits or sacrifice flies the player had. I think that Gant and Fielder are pretty similar here--not terribly great hitters who swung for the fences a lot. They struck out a lot, hit a lot of homers, and got fewer RBIs in their non-HR plate appearances. Mo Vaughn is kind of a weird case, I think because his career ended early when he was forced to retire early due to injury. Vaughn missed his age 33 season and had only 79 AB after his age 34 season. Had he been able to play until age 38 or so, he would have finished with something more like 400 career HR and wouldn't be in this comparison group.

I'm not sure what this all means. I would really like to see a full list of career "RBI by homer" numbers for all players. I think it would reveal that Gant had a tendency toward more one-dimensionality of HR hitting. (NOTE I am not calling Gant one-dimensional...)

So, now, let the debates for Bernie Williams and John Olerud begin...

Looks like it's going to be Henderson only going in, with Rice and Blyleven missing narrowly. That's bad news for Rice, with this being his last year of eligibility, and good news for Blyleven, who I think has 3 years of eligibility left after this one.

Who are the only 3 players in major league history with 400 career HR and 300 career stolen bases?

I'll spot you Barry Bonds and Willie Mays. Read the rest of this entry »

For all players from their age 31 season through their age 35 season, Jay Bell ranks 92nd in homers with 110. That might not sound very unimpressive until year hear that for players up through their age 30 seasons, Jay Bell ranks 595th in homers with 83.

Check out the list of fewest 38 HR, 112 RBI seasons (discounting all the guys with zero such seasons.) Jay Bell is one of 51 guys with just 1 such season. But so many of the other names on that list are power hitters who consistently hit 20-30 HRs, which Bell didn't do. (Just to name a few: Reggie Jackson, Carl Yastrzemski, Tino Martinez, Greg Luzinski, Fred Lynn...many others.)

Mark Grace will not get into the Hall of Fame, not this year or ever. His career batting totals, even when measured objectively, fall a bit short, but he is also subjectively marked down because he was a first baseman without all that much power (having "only" 173 career HR.)

But there's a lot to like about Grace and his career. He was remarkably consistent, hitting at least .307 every year from 1989 to 1999 except for 1991 and 1994. You probably already know that he is the hits leader for the 1990s. That's kind of a dumb stat, since it favors players who had their primes starting right in 1990. Notice that guys finishing second and third (Palmeiro and Biggio) also both had their first full prime seasons in 1990. But Grace also had the 18th-most hits of all modern players in the first 12 years of their careers (regardless of when they played), trailing only George Sisler among first basemen.

Among all first baseman playing in at least 1000 games in the expansion era (post-1961) Grace has the following career ranks: 5th in batting average, 3rd in doubles, 7th in hits, 8th in triples, 10th in runs scored, 14th in runs created, 19th in RBI, and all this despite being just 45th in home runs. Also, he's 11th in walks but is only 55th in strikeouts.

Also he hit lots of pitchers well, but none better than John Smoltz. In 67 career AB against Smoltz (a pretty big sample), Grace hit 7 2B, 1 3B, 6 HR, with 11 RBI, and a .358/.456/.761 line of averages. Grace averaged 582 AB over 162 games, so projecting out a full season against Smoltz gives him 60 doubles, 8 triples, 52 HR, 95 RBI. I realize that 67 AB is just 67 AB, but they came against Smoltz and it's a little bit of impressive data.