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Charlie Manual has already announced that Pedro Martinez is going to start Game 2 of the World Series against the Yankees. That's pretty fascinating to me as Pedro was a big part of the Red Sox-Yankees rivalry from 1998-2004, including 5 ALCS starts against the Bombers during that span.
Below, I talk a little about what we might expect from Pedro in this start. First, however, I want to get a poll out of the way. Is Pedro's start the most compelling storyline in this World Series? Let's hear what you think, then please read on below.
Firstly, let's look at Pedro's career post-season appearances against the Yankees:
His first ever game against them in the playoffs was a gem, a start in the 1999 ALCS. This was the only game the Red Sox won in that series. Pedro was the Game 3 starter--can you name the starters in Games 1 and 2? I bet not. The answers are Kent Mercker in Game 1 and Pedro's brother Ramon in Game 2.
Anyway, after that first game in 1999, Pedro's performances against the Yankees in the playoffs have been pretty dismal, totaling 30 hits and 18 earned runs in 27.1 IP. The gopher ball has been his biggest problem, having given up 5 homers (although 4 were solo shots) over those 27.1 innings. Only 3 pitchers have given up more playoff homers to the Yankees. If you can guess those 3, you are amazing. (Click here for the answers.)
11-11 record, 3.20 ERA over 216.2 IP (32 games and starts, more than against any other team.) His K/BB ratio is 4.14 and OPS against is .603.
Compare those to his overall career numbers:
219-100, 2.93 ERA, K/BB ratio of 4.15 and OPS against .613.
Other than a slight edge in OPS, his numbers are all below his own averages against the Yankees. HOWEVER, keep in mind that he's played against the Yankees primarily when they have been a powerhouse team. They have hit very well against most of the league and Pedro's numbers against them are much better than nearly all other pitchers over the same span.
The real question, of course, is: does any of this history actually matter? We're talking about a player who turned 38 a few days ago and who was already on the down side of his career when he faced the Yankees in the playoffs 5 years ago. Pedro usually tops out at 91-92 MPH now and is not the same type of pitcher he was before.
However, in the regular season with the Phillies this year, Pedro struck out 37 and walked just 8 in 44.2 innings. Those numbers sure sound like the old Pedro even if he's not throwing nearly as hard as he used to. (But, just to remember how good Pedro was in 1999 and 2000---his K/BB ratio this season is an excellent 4.63 which is just over half of what it was those seasons--8.46 and 8.88!!!)
A better question might be: how have guys this old fared in the post-season before? When Pedro takes the mound in Game 2, it will rank 128th on the list of oldest starters in a post-season game, right ahead of himself against the Dodgers last week and behind Orel Hershiser's start in the 1996 ALDS for the Indians. He'll be the 42nd-oldest World Series starter. By my count, the 41 starts ahead of him have seen the starters go 14-16 with 11 no-decisions. Teams were 17-24 overall in these 41 games.
I did a little math and in the 41 games, the total stats are a 3.84 ERA over 248.1 IP with 92 BB, 170 K, and 20 HR allowed. These numbers are drawn over such a long period of time that off the top of my head I don't know how they compare to younger (average) pitchers over the same span, but my gut instinct is that they are not likely to be all that different. In summary, while it's fairly rare for such an old pitcher to start a World Series game, the ones who do it are usually among the few older pitchers who are still pitching effectively.
Anyway, what do I expect in the game started by Pedro? If I had to guess, we won't see a dominant performance but we also won't see him get hammered. He's already pitched pretty well in many important games this year and there's no reason o think he won't do so again in Game 2. Also, since he's facing the inconsistent A. J. Burnett, anything can happen. I wouldn't be surprised to see Pedro come away with the win.
Home players have been much more successful with a total of 12 1st inning game 1 home runs. However, this is a somewhat "recent" development. When the Robinsons hit their home runs in '66, visiting players had a 4 to 1 edge in this category.
Teams that hit game 1 first inning home-runs were 12-4 in those games also won the whole series 12 times. In fact, the last 8 teams to hit a game 1 1st inning home run have gone on to win the World Series.
Multiple Home Runs
In World Series history, 8 players have hit 2 home runs in a game 1. Their teams have combined for a 5-3 record. In all other WS games, there have been 38 multiple home run games. Those teams went 35-3. (34-3 if you don't double count the game in which Ruth and Gehrig both did it.) Here are the players who went yard twice in a game 1:
The first game of the World Series has been won 1-0 of five occasions. Three of them occurred in consecutive years (1948-1950).:
Cnt Date Series G Tm Opp GmReslt PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB IBB SO HBP SH SF ROE GDP SB CS LOB Batrs
+----+-------------+------+-+---+----+-------+---+---+--+--+--+--+--+---+--+---+--+---+--+--+---+---+--+--+---+-----+
1 1986-10-18WS 1 BOS @NYM W 1-0 36 31 1 5 0 0 0 0 5 2 8 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 8 12
2 1950-10-04WS 1 NYY @PHI W 1-0 37 31 1 5 1 0 0 1 4 1 0 0 2 0 1 0 0 0 9 11
3 1949-10-05WS 1 NYYBRO W 1-0 29 29 1 5 2 0 1 1 0 0 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 9
4 1948-10-06WS 1 BSNCLE W 1-0 29 24 1 2 0 0 0 1 3 1 2 0 2 0 0 0 1 0 4 11
5 1918-09-05WS 1 BOS @CHC W 1-0 33 28 1 5 0 0 0 1 3 1 6 0 2 0 0 0 0 1 5 9
Trivia: Winning Game 1 More Than Once
12 pitchers have won game 1 of the World Series more than once. If you would like to test yourself, I have created this Sporcle quiz. Otherwise, you can click here for the information.
Here are a few random World Series thoughts as well as two polls at the bottom for you to vote in.
Has there ever before been a Game 1 of the World Series where the two starting pitchers were teammates the previous season, but not on either World Series team? I'm referring of course to Cliff Lee and C. C. Sabathia, who were teammates on the Indians last season. Seeing them face each other in the World Series has got to be extremely bitter for the Indians franchise and their fans.
The Phillies are looking to become the first team to win back-to-back World Series championships since the Yankees in 1998-2000. Prior to that it was the Blue Jays in 1992-1993 and the Pirates in 1979-1980. It feels weird to mention the Pirates and the World Series in the same paragraph.
These two teams played earlier this season in a wild 3-game series in May starting with this game. Brad Lidge blew two saves in the series, Brett Myers started one game, Chien-Ming Wang pitched in relief, A-rod had been playing for just a couple of weeks, and Bret Tomko was pitching for the Yankees. Seems like a million years ago.
Anyway, here are two polls. First is what you think will happen and second is what you'd like to happen.
I noticed that in 2009, Elijah Dukes managed to steal just 3 bases to go along with 10 times caught stealing. I thought for sure that would be way up on the leaderboard, but I was wrong.
Now, all the guys on this list below B.J. Upton shouldn't have been trying to steal bases this season. A guy's success rate should be at least 75% or the outcomes aren't worth it for the team. But at least guys like Podsednik and Span managed to be successful more times than not. I don't understand how someone can get thrown out 10 times while stealing so few times. I mean--a few pickoffs I can understand. But ten? Geez...
Throughout the history of baseball, there have been post season stars. Usually these players grabbed hold of the spotlight with a single huge play, a historically big game, or a series of really good games. However, it occurred to me that there could be another type of star, a player who consistently produces when his team wins. How many World Series winning players have scored a run, had a hit or drove in a run in all of their team's postseason wins? Obviously, the more postseason wins needed, the more difficult this becomes, so we will have to look at this data in stages.
Mike Scioscia's decision to intentionally walk Alex Rodriguez with the bases empty has worked out well so far. However, it is interesting to note that historically this has been a pretty risky proposition. Prior to this year, a post-season bases-empty intentional-walk was successful in preventing a run in only four of the seven times it was tried. Including Arod's walks, there have now been 9 bases empty post-season IBB. Here they are with their results:
Mangers Who Looked Like Geniuses
Car# G# Date Series G Batter Tm Opp Pitcher Score Inn RoB Out Cnt Pit RBI Play Desc.
+-----+---+-------------+------+-+-----------------+---+----+-----------------+-----------+---+---+---+---+---+---+-------------------------+
1 1 1978-10-07NLCS 4 Greg LuzinskiPHI @LADRick Rhoden tied 3-3 t 8 --- 2 3-0 4 0 Intentional Walk
Luzinski was singled to second, but stranded there. The Dodgers won in 10.4 1 2003-10-03NLDS 3 Barry BondsSFG @FLAUgueth Urbina tied 2-2 t 9 --- 2 3-0 4 0 Intentional Walk
Bonds was singled to third, but stranded there. The Marlins won in 11.
5 1 2003-10-04NLDS 4 Barry BondsSFG @FLACarl Pavano tied 5-5 t 8 --- 2 3-0 4 0 Intentional Walk
Bonds was forced at second to end the inning. The Marlins scored 2 runs in their half of the 8th and won the game 7-6. 7 1 2006-10-19NLCS 7 Albert PujolsSTL @NYMAaron Heilman tied 1-1 t 8 --- 2 3-0 4 0 Intentional Walk
Pujols was stranded at first. However,the Cardinals scored 2 in the 9th and won 3-1.
8 1 2009-10-19ALCS 3 Alex RodriguezNYY @LAABrian Fuentes tied 4-4 t 9 --- 2 3-0 4 0 Intentional Walk
A-rod was stranded at first. The Angels won in 11.
9 1 2009-10-22ALCS 5 Alex RodriguezNYY @LAABrian Fuentes down 6-7 t 9 --- 2 3-0 4 0 Intentional Walk
A-rod's IBB was followed by a BB and HBP. However, Nick Swisher popped up and the Angels won. Managers Who Looked Foolish
Car# G# Date Series G Batter Tm Opp Pitcher Score Inn RoB Out Cnt Pit RBI Play Desc.
+-----+---+-------------+------+-+-----------------+---+----+-----------------+-----------+---+---+---+---+---+---+-------------------------+
2 1 2002-10-13NLCS 4 Barry BondsSFGSTLRick White tied 2-2 b 8 --- 2 3-0 4 0 Intentional WalkBenito Santiago drove in Bonds with a 2 run homer. The Giants won 4-3.
3 1 2003-09-30NLDS 1 Barry BondsSFGFLAChad Fox ahead 1-0 b 8 --- 2 3-0 4 0 Intentional Walk
Bonds stole second and scored on an Edgardo Alfonzo double. The Giants won 2-0
6 1 2006-10-06ALDS 3 Frank ThomasOAKMINDennys Reyes ahead 4-2 b 7 --- 2 3-0 4 0 Intentional Walk
Thomas's IBB was followed by a BB,E3,BB,2B. The A's scored 4 runs in the inning and won 8-3.
Just nine times...but, oh, what a feeling it must have been for these nine men!
Edit/Add-On, 10/25/09, 11:37 am ET: alkeiper has a good point. Here are some more heroes to end a post-season "Sudden Death" game where their team was losing and the batter won the game...
Car# G# Date Series G Batter Tm Opp Pitcher Score Result Inn RoB Out Cnt Pit RBI Play Desc.
+-----+---+-------------+------+-+-----------------+---+----+-----------------+-----------+------+---+---+---+---+---+---+-------------------------+
1 1 1992-10-14NLCS 7 Francisco CabreraATLPITStan Belinda down 1-2 1B b 9 123 2 2-1 4 2 *ENDED GAME*:Single to LF (LD to Short LF); Justice & Bream Score
2 1 1995-10-08ALDS 5 Edgar MartinezSEANYYJack McDowell down 4-5 2B b11 1-3 0 0-1 2 2 *ENDED GAME*:Double to LF (Line Drive); Cora Scores; Griffey Scores