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Best Red Sox player during John Henry’s tenure as owner

Posted by Andy on July 19, 2010

I recently wrote an article for the NY Times about the best player during George Steinbrenner's reign. In talking to Neil, he got the idea that it would be neat to do something similar for the Red Sox under their current ownership. Click through for the details.

Just like I did with the Yankees, we'll use WAR as the indicator to find the best player. As you will see below, there are some reasons why this is probably not the best method!

John Henry lead a group of investors that bought the Red Sox in early 2002, so we'll look at the highest WAR values for the period 2002-present.

The WAR leaders among batters doesn't have any surprises:

Rk Player WAR/pos From To Age G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS Pos
1 David Ortiz 27.1 2003 2010 27-34 1073 4680 3957 721 1133 293 11 277 888 661 845 .286 .388 .576 .964 *D3
2 Manny Ramirez 26.4 2002 2008 30-36 941 4062 3424 650 1070 223 5 233 743 555 702 .313 .412 .585 .997 *7D/9
3 Kevin Youkilis 24.7 2004 2010 25-31 776 3227 2719 492 796 196 14 111 467 405 577 .293 .393 .498 .890 *35/749
4 Jason Varitek 18.8 2002 2010 30-38 1052 4062 3533 457 908 202 9 138 522 448 894 .257 .346 .436 .782 *2/D
5 Dustin Pedroia 17.6 2006 2010 22-26 554 2461 2183 376 666 169 5 54 253 214 182 .305 .370 .461 .831 *4/6
6 Nomar Garciaparra 13.7 2002 2004 28-30 350 1581 1449 245 445 100 21 57 246 88 140 .307 .351 .523 .874 *6/D
7 J.D. Drew 13.1 2007 2010 31-34 467 1860 1559 295 430 102 14 65 241 274 354 .276 .384 .484 .868 *9/8D
8 Mike Lowell 12.8 2006 2010 32-36 570 2327 2106 275 615 145 4 77 360 182 264 .292 .348 .474 .822 *5/D3
9 Johnny Damon 12.1 2002 2005 28-31 597 2782 2476 461 730 136 29 56 299 262 284 .295 .362 .441 .803 *8/D
10 Trot Nixon 11.9 2002 2006 28-32 572 2215 1911 309 532 122 11 79 323 258 344 .278 .366 .478 .844 *9/8D
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 7/18/2010.

Well, I take that back. Seeing Nomar Garciaparra so high was a bit of a surprise, not to mention the fact that Trot Nixon cracks the top 10.

One wonders how this list will look at the end of 2010 as well as the end of 2011. Youkilis accumulated over 6 WAR in both 2008 and 2009 and is on pace to do so again in 2010. If he reaches 6 again this year, he's pass Manny. In any event, it seems very likely he'll eventually pass Manny while Henry still owns the team.

The bigger question is what happens with David Ortiz. So far he has a WAR of 1.9 this season. That is likely to go up by the end of the year, but could possibly go down. Last year, he registered 0.3 WAR for the entire year. It's conceivable that Ortiz could actually fall behind Manny, but only if Ortiz's performance decreases and the Red Sox continue to play him. It's not clear if Ortiz will play for Boston next year. The team has an option, at $15 million I believe. Ortiz says he wants an extension with the Red Sox. Nobody seems to have a clue what is likely to happen. So this could be his last year with the team, or he might have 3 more. He might add more to his WAR total, or maybe not. Either way, my money is on Youkilis to take over as #1 in the not-so-distant future.

Here are the top WAR values by individual season:

Rk Player WAR/pos Year Age G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS Pos
1 Nomar Garciaparra 6.7 2003 29 156 719 658 120 198 37 13 28 105 39 61 .301 .345 .524 .870 *6
2 Nomar Garciaparra 6.7 2002 28 156 693 635 101 197 56 5 24 120 41 63 .310 .352 .528 .880 *6
3 Kevin Youkilis 6.4 2009 30 136 588 491 99 150 36 1 27 94 77 125 .305 .413 .548 .961 *35/7
4 Kevin Youkilis 6.0 2008 29 145 621 538 91 168 43 4 29 115 62 108 .312 .390 .569 .958 *35/9
5 David Ortiz 6.0 2007 31 149 667 549 116 182 52 1 35 117 111 103 .332 .445 .621 1.066 *D/3
6 Manny Ramirez 6.0 2002 30 120 518 436 84 152 31 0 33 107 73 85 .349 .450 .647 1.097 *7D/9
7 J.D. Drew 5.6 2009 33 137 539 452 84 126 30 4 24 68 82 109 .279 .392 .522 .914 *9/D
8 David Ortiz 5.5 2006 30 151 686 558 115 160 29 2 54 137 119 117 .287 .413 .636 1.049 *D3
9 Bill Mueller 5.5 2003 32 146 600 524 85 171 45 5 19 85 59 77 .326 .398 .540 .938 *54/6
10 Jason Bay 5.2 2009 30 151 638 531 103 142 29 3 36 119 94 162 .267 .384 .537 .921 *7/D
11 Dustin Pedroia 5.2 2008 24 157 726 653 118 213 54 2 17 83 50 52 .326 .376 .493 .869 *4
12 Mike Lowell 5.1 2007 33 154 653 589 79 191 37 2 21 120 53 71 .324 .378 .501 .879 *5
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 7/18/2010.

Well, that's how Nomar makes the first list. He's had the two best single-season WAR totals (among batters) since Henry took over as principal owner.

Overall, my gut instinct is that the Red Sox have gotten good performances from more players than the Yankees have over the last several years. What I mean is that A-rod and Jeter hold a lot of the top spots for the Yankees, but on Boston's list we see quite a few different guys represented.

Now, pitchers. Here are the leaders among WAR for pitchers since 2002:

Rk Player WAR From To Age G GS W L W-L% SV IP H R ER BB SO ERA ERA+
1 Tim Wakefield 18.9 2002 2010 35-43 269 231 98 81 .547 4 1521.0 1452 806 734 504 1015 4.34 107
2 Pedro Martinez 17.9 2002 2004 30-32 92 92 50 17 .746 0 603.0 484 213 190 148 672 2.84 166
3 Jon Lester 16.8 2006 2010 22-26 110 109 53 19 .736 0 678.0 627 272 264 248 611 3.50 132
4 Jonathan Papelbon 15.5 2005 2010 24-29 304 3 17 15 .531 171 336.0 243 86 75 89 377 2.01 233
5 Curt Schilling 14.5 2004 2007 37-40 119 98 53 29 .646 9 675.0 712 301 296 108 574 3.95 121
6 Josh Beckett 13.2 2006 2010 26-30 130 130 66 35 .653 0 837.2 808 415 393 222 763 4.22 111
7 Daisuke Matsuzaka 9.3 2007 2010 26-29 85 85 43 24 .642 0 502.2 464 234 228 239 468 4.08 114
8 Derek Lowe 7.9 2002 2004 29-31 98 98 52 27 .658 0 605.2 606 316 274 191 342 4.07 115
9 Mike Timlin 6.9 2003 2008 37-42 394 0 30 22 .577 27 409.0 422 183 171 98 273 3.76 125
10 Hideki Okajima 5.8 2007 2010 31-34 233 0 14 6 .700 6 220.0 194 77 76 74 198 3.11 150
11 Bronson Arroyo 5.5 2003 2005 26-28 73 61 24 19 .558 1 401.1 394 220 187 105 256 4.19 112
12 Clay Buchholz 4.0 2007 2010 22-25 51 49 22 18 .550 0 282.2 275 144 129 125 226 4.11 112
13 Keith Foulke 3.7 2004 2006 31-33 159 0 13 9 .591 47 178.1 168 76 74 40 149 3.73 128
14 Manny Delcarmen 3.6 2005 2010 23-28 275 0 11 6 .647 3 274.2 250 125 117 123 234 3.83 122
15 David Wells 3.4 2005 2006 42-43 38 38 17 10 .630 0 231.0 284 125 117 29 131 4.56 101
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 7/18/2010.

I included the top 15 because the results are so fascinating.

If I had asked you to guess before I posted the list, I'm sure I'd had heard lots of guesses of Pedro and Schilling for first place, and maybe a bunch for Papelbon as well. But it's Tim Wakefield who takes it, thanks to two factors: being a pretty decent pitcher and being with the team for the entire period since 2002. Going all the way back to 1995, his first year with the team, Wakefield has topped 4.0 WAR only twice (1995 and 2005.) But he hasn't had a negative value until this year and has usually been good for a WAR between 1 and 3 since 2002. (Keep in mind he had a bigger lead over Pedro before this season, when so far he's earned -0.6 WAR.)

I think it's clear that Pedro, Schilling, and numerous other pitchers have made some bigger contributions to the Red Sox, particularly when factoring in post-season performance. If you asked most Red Sox fans which pitcher (Pedro, Schilling, or Wakefield) they would have kicked off the team if they had to choose one, I think Wakefield would be the runaway winner. But the WAR numbers tell us that Wakefield has been a pretty big contributor for this team as well, as far as helping them make the playoffs year after year.

Here's what I'm talking about. Here are the highest single-season WAR totals among pitchers:

Rk Player WAR Year Age G GS W L W-L% SV IP H R ER BB SO ERA ERA+
1 Pedro Martinez 7.4 2003 31 29 29 14 4 .778 0 186.2 147 52 46 47 206 2.22 211
2 Curt Schilling 6.4 2004 37 32 32 21 6 .778 0 226.2 206 84 82 35 203 3.26 150
3 Derek Lowe 6.4 2002 29 32 32 21 8 .724 0 219.2 166 65 63 48 127 2.58 177
4 Pedro Martinez 5.7 2002 30 30 30 20 4 .833 0 199.1 144 62 50 40 239 2.26 202
5 Jon Lester 5.6 2009 25 32 32 15 8 .652 0 203.1 186 80 77 64 225 3.41 138
6 Jon Lester 5.6 2008 24 33 33 16 6 .727 0 210.1 202 78 75 66 152 3.21 144
7 Daisuke Matsuzaka 5.1 2008 27 29 29 18 3 .857 0 167.2 128 58 54 94 154 2.90 160
8 Jonathan Papelbon 4.8 2006 25 59 0 4 2 .667 35 68.1 40 8 7 13 75 0.92 517
9 Pedro Martinez 4.8 2004 32 33 33 16 9 .640 0 217.0 193 99 94 61 227 3.90 125
10 Josh Beckett 4.7 2007 27 30 30 20 7 .741 0 200.2 189 76 73 40 194 3.27 145
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 7/18/2010.

Pedro's 2003 not only leads all pitchers, but all players period for single-season WAR since 2002.

Now taking a look at the same four categories I used in the Yankees article, here are the best players over the period 2002-present in different categories:

Acquired through the draft: Pedroia, Youkilis, Papelbon

Acquired through international scouting: Matsuzaka, Okajima

Acquired through free agency: Ortiz, Ramirez, Drew

Acquired through trade: P Martinez, Schilling, Lowell, Beckett

Let the debate begin...

Related posts:

    Homers during Kalas’ tenure
    See you in 2013: John Lackey to have Tommy John surgery
    Longest tenure with one team, active players
    John Danks and longest winless streaks to start a season
    Oldest player to hit a pinch HR in the post-season

This entry was posted on Monday, July 19th, 2010 at 7:00 am and is filed under Season Finders, Uncategorized. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.

8 Responses to “Best Red Sox player during John Henry’s tenure as owner”

  1. BSK Says:
    July 19th, 2010 at 9:19 am

    I'm kinda, sorta surprised no Varitek on the list. Where would he rank?

  2. Andy Says:
    July 19th, 2010 at 9:20 am

    Varitek is #4 on the first list...

  3. Andy Says:
    July 19th, 2010 at 9:21 am

    Oh you mean acquired by trade? Yeah I suppose Varitek could go ahead of Beckett and Lowell...that's totally subjective

  4. Michael E Sullivan Says:
    July 19th, 2010 at 11:05 am

    I'm not that surprised to see Nomar. I was just looking at his stats the other day when you did the yankees and talking about Jeter, because they came in around the same time and were compared so often in their early years. Nomar is a classic example of injuries or something killing what looked like a HOF career. Before the trade, his bat was about as good as Jeter's, *and* he was a very good fielding SS. Look at his career stats from 1996 (rookie) to 2003. That's 8 seasons and he breaks 40 WAR (5.1 WAR/season, even though it includes 1996+2001 with <100 PAs each.). As of 2003, He's got an OPS+ of 134. He doesn't take many walks but when you bat .323 with a fair bit of power, you don't have to. Fielding, he's a top shortstop. 48 fielding runs above average. That's not on pace to crack Ozzie Smith, or even Ripken, but if had a normal career projectory from there, he'd be starting to 1B or DH within the last couple years, and could easily have made the top 10 list for defensive shortstops, in the 70-80 range.

    Before his injuries he looked like a surefire hall of famer, now, he's just another guy with a great peak that wasn't quite big enough to get serious consideration.

  5. Djibouti Says:
    July 19th, 2010 at 11:18 am

    Is there something in the WAR formula that accounts for the DH? If not, I imagine there's a natural bias against DHs in that it's hard to be a well above average DH using the metrics of every other position. Since there's no fielding involved, DHs only have batting to analyze. Given that most DHs are good hitters to begin with, the range of the data is probably more limited than with any other position, which would mean that you'd have to be an especially spectacular DH to record a high WAR value. So if you have a DH with a WAR of 3.0 and a 2B with a WAR of 3.0, wouldn't the DH's season be more impressive?

    Basically what I'm getting at is that Ortiz's 6.0 WAR in '07 while less valuable to the team than Nomar's 6.7 WAR years, was probably a bigger accomplishment given that the average DH is better at his position than the average SS.

  6. John Q Says:
    July 19th, 2010 at 11:36 am

    It's interesting I was just looking at Nomar's career and it just hit me how similar it is to Dale Murphy's career. They both had 6 great seasons (5-7 WAR), one average season (2-2.9 WAR), and then 5-8 seasons when they were basically at replacement level. Murphy made 7 all star games, Nomar made 6 and they were both considered during their primes to be future HOF.

    Here's the comparison:

    Murphy:

    Best 6 WAR seasons-38.7
    Best 7 WAR seasons-41.6
    Career WAR-44.2
    If you took the (7 seasons + Career)/2= 42.9

    Nomar:

    Best 6 WAR seasons-40.4
    Best 7 WAR seasons-42.5
    Career WAR-42.6
    If you took the (7 best seasons + Career)/2=42.55

  7. smh Says:
    July 19th, 2010 at 12:22 pm

    So if you have a DH with a WAR of 3.0 and a 2B with a WAR of 3.0, wouldn't the DH's season be more impressive?

    Depends whether by 'impressive' you're talking about just hitting or about overall value. The DH's hitting line would be better in this case, but according to WAR, the 2B's defensive value was enough to make up the offensive gap.

  8. Johnny Twisto Says:
    July 19th, 2010 at 12:32 pm

    average DH is better at his position than the average SS

    This doesn't make any sense.

    Yes, WAR accounts for position. The whole point of it is that it accounts for position, and the quality of player who can be found to fill that position. It estimates the difference between SS and DH to be worth over 20 runs. If it were true that every team had a good hitting DH, then being a good hitting DH would not be that valuable. That's not a flaw of WAR, that's a feature.

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