Bert Blyleven versus the Hall of Fame
Posted by Andy on November 29, 2007
I heard a great interview with Bert Blyleven today, and it made me think more about his Hall of Fame candidacy, what with the vote coming up again (see the end of the post for a special announcement on this.) He'll be on the ballot for the 12th time, meaning there are just 4 more chances for the writers to finally get it right and put him in. He is significantly more qualified than quite a number of pitchers already in the HOF, and there are many sites out there with more info on it (including my previous post on this blog about him.) We're not talking about someone like Jim Rice or Tony Perez here, whose numbers are fringe for the HOF.
Anyway, since this whole thing is starting to feel like Blyleven against the HOF, I thought I'd post his lifetime pitching lines against HOF batters:
**PA** AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS SH SF IBB HBP GDP G_miss YR_miss +-----------------+-------+---+---+--+--+--+---+---+---+-----+-----+-----+-----+---+---+---+---+---+------+-------+ Reggie Jackson 140 131 28 6 0 6 12 8 49 .214 .264 .397 .661 0 0 2 1 1 George Brett 128 117 27 5 1 2 10 6 15 .231 .281 .342 .623 0 2 0 3 6 Robin Yount 114 110 20 8 1 1 7 4 4 .182 .211 .300 .511 0 0 0 0 2 Paul Molitor 80 74 19 8 0 0 4 5 14 .257 .304 .365 .669 1 0 0 0 0 Cal Ripken 78 67 19 0 0 3 10 10 9 .284 .372 .418 .790 0 1 0 0 0 Carlton Fisk 70 63 17 1 0 4 10 3 9 .270 .343 .476 .819 0 0 0 4 0 Eddie Murray 67 62 26 3 0 7 13 5 10 .419 .463 .806 1.269 0 0 0 0 1 Carl Yastrzemski 65 58 19 4 0 1 7 5 6 .328 .385 .448 .833 0 1 0 1 0 Rod Carew 53 50 13 1 0 0 2 3 4 .260 .302 .280 .582 0 0 0 0 1 Dave Winfield 53 48 12 2 0 4 8 3 11 .250 .302 .542 .844 0 1 0 1 1 Brooks Robinson 51 48 12 0 0 1 3 1 1 .250 .294 .313 .607 0 0 0 2 0 Wade Boggs 46 43 11 4 0 1 3 3 2 .256 .304 .419 .723 0 0 1 0 1 Gary Carter 45 42 11 5 0 1 7 2 7 .262 .295 .452 .747 1 0 0 0 2 Kirby Puckett 41 41 17 2 1 1 6 0 4 .415 .415 .585 1.000 0 0 0 0 2 Joe Morgan 36 32 6 0 0 1 3 2 3 .188 .222 .281 .503 0 2 0 0 0 Mike Schmidt 33 23 8 1 0 2 7 7 5 .348 .485 .652 1.137 0 2 0 1 0 Tony Perez 25 23 7 1 0 1 1 1 3 .304 .360 .478 .838 0 0 0 1 0 Frank Robinson 21 20 7 1 0 2 3 1 5 .350 .381 .700 1.081 0 0 0 0 0 Ozzie Smith 21 20 4 1 0 0 0 1 8 .200 .238 .250 .488 0 0 0 0 0 Johnny Bench 19 17 4 1 0 2 3 1 2 .235 .263 .647 .910 0 1 0 0 0 +-----------------+-------+---+---+--+--+--+---+---+---+-----+-----+-----+-----+---+---+---+---+---+------+-------+ **PA** AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS SH SF IBB HBP GDP G_miss YR_miss +-----------------+-------+---+---+--+--+--+---+---+---+-----+-----+-----+-----+---+---+---+---+---+------+-------+ Willie McCovey 19 16 6 2 0 0 3 3 2 .375 .474 .500 .974 0 0 2 0 0 Steve Carlton 18 15 2 0 0 0 3 0 2 .133 .167 .133 .300 0 2 0 1 0 Luis Aparicio 17 16 3 1 0 0 1 0 2 .188 .176 .250 .426 0 1 0 0 1 Billy Williams 17 15 1 0 0 0 0 2 3 .067 .176 .067 .243 0 0 1 0 0 Al Kaline 11 10 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 .100 .182 .100 .282 0 0 0 0 2 Phil Niekro 11 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0 0 0 Lou Brock 10 10 5 0 0 0 0 0 1 .500 .500 .500 1.000 0 0 0 0 0 Orlando Cepeda 9 8 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 .125 .222 .125 .347 0 0 0 0 0 Jim Palmer 8 8 2 1 0 0 1 0 4 .250 .250 .375 .625 0 0 0 0 0 Gaylord Perry 8 5 1 0 0 1 2 1 3 .200 .333 .800 1.133 2 0 0 0 0 Hank Aaron 7 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0 0 0 Don Sutton 7 5 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 .200 .333 .200 .533 1 0 0 0 0 Tom Seaver 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 .500 .500 .500 1.000 1 0 0 0 0 Rollie Fingers 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0 0 0
Holy cow, can you believe Reggie had 140 PAs against him? And he hit terribly, as did George Brett, Robin Yount, and Paul Molitor. Cal Ripken and Carlton Fisk were so-so, but Eddie Murray had some serious PWNAGE going there.
I calculated an approximate average for all this data (should be within 2 or 3 points) and Blyleven's complete line against all HOF batters is .255/.306/.409. Remember that a lot of Bert's pitching came when offense was much less than today (for example in 1973, one of his best years, the AL hit.259/.328/.381) but that his career was through 1990 and that these numbers are against all HOFers. Pretty impressive stuff.
Now, for the special announcement, as per a great reader suggestion:
In the coming weeks, I am going to post another poll here, this time giving you a chance to vote on the Hall of Fame class of 2008. The real voting will be announced on January 8th, so I'll probably post it just before the end of the year. This is announcement is just to get you thinking seriously about who you'd vote in to the HOF, given the chance. So check out the names on this year's ballot, and get ready for my upcoming post!
November 29th, 2007 at 9:48 am
I just noticed from above that Gaylord Perry homered off Blyleven. I looked it up, and Perry hit 6 career homers: 1 each off of Bert, Nino Espinoza, Bill Hands, Claude Osteen, Dick Ruthven, and Mike Wegener.
November 29th, 2007 at 8:27 pm
The following is based on Bill James's Win Shares (Stats, 2002).
I take the following win shares totals to be Hall of Fame career-total presumption-carriers, by position. After each number, I name someone who is just over the bar, and someone else who is just under it. 1b, 365 (Willie Stargell, 370 or Harmon Killebrew, 371; Tony Perez, 349). 2b, 335 (Ryne Sandberg, 349 or Robby Alomar, 345; Bobby Grich, 329). 3b, 350 (Brooks Robinson, 356; Ron Santo, 324). SS, 320 (Ozzie Smith, 325 or Barry Larkin, 320; Alan Trammell, 318). LF, 380 (Tim Raines, 390; Billy Williams, 374). CF, 350 (Duke Snider, 352 or Max Carey, 351; Richie Ashburn, 329). RF, 365 (Roberto Clemente, 377; Rusty Staub, 358 or Dwight Evans, 347). C, 300 (Bill Dickey, 314 or Ivan Rodriguez, 312; Mickey Cochrane, 275 or Bill Freehan, 267). DH, 400 (Frank Thomas, 401; Edgar Martinez, c. 295). SP, 300 (Bert Blyleven, 339 or Tom Glavine, 314; Tommy John, 289 or John Smoltz, 285). Relief pitchers, consideration postponed.
Are my cutoffs arbitrary? Yes. Do they comport with common sense? You decide. Note that I defined them as "presumption-carriers." That is, if a player is over the bar, he deserves admission unless a good argument can be made against him. If a player is under the bar, he shouldn't get in unless a good case can be made for him.
For example, Ron Santo. Brooks Robinson played in 2900 games, including a full season at age 38 (batting .201). Santo played in only 2243 games, did not play after age 34, and the 15 years he played were with early-onset diabetes. Given a few more years, Santo would have easily reached 350 win shares.
Whatever you think of this starting place for argument, I figure the idea has some pertinence to Hall of Fame voting.
March 30th, 2008 at 10:20 am
[...] I’ve written tons about Blyleven over at the Stat of the Day blog. Check it out here, here, here, here, and [...]