Most Consecutive Wins with a Save
Posted by Raphy on July 22, 2009
On August 19, 1997 the Cincinnati Reds beat the Colorado Rockies 6-5 beginning a stretch in which they went 20-17. While this may seem unremarkable, the Reds managed to record a save in every single one of those wins. It was the longest streak of wins saved by any team from 1954-2009 (and presumably ever). As a quick point of reference, the longest such streak this year was 8 games by the Royals earlier this month. Here are the longest streaks 1954-2009:
Team StreakStart Streak End Games W L CG SHO SV IP H R ER BB SO HR ERA HBP WP BK Opponents
+-------+-----------+-----------+-----+------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+ CIN 1997-08-19 1997-09-25 20 20 0 0 2 20 186 164 65 64 39 134 20 3.10 7 6 0 COL,ATL,MIN,KCR,PIT,CHC,PHI,MON,HOU,STL BOS 1998-04-22 1998-05-30 17 17 0 0 1 17 153 120 45 39 45 110 5 2.29 6 3 0 DET,CLE,ANA,TEX,MIN,KCR,CHW,NYY NYY 1986-08-12 1986-09-16 17 17 0 0 2 17 153 148 60 56 40 93 17 3.29 2 8 0 CLE,KCR,SEA,OAK,CAL,TOR,BOS,BAL CIN 1970-09-10 1971-04-20 14 14 0 0 1 14 126 118 44 40 41 62 12 2.86 1 1 1 LAD,HOU,ATL,LAD,NYM NYM 2001-06-12 2001-07-14 13 13 0 0 2 13 119 82 30 25 32 103 6 1.89 2 5 2 BAL,NYY,MON,CHC,ATL,BOS PIT 1981-08-16 1981-09-13 13 13 0 0 0 13 120 104 34 32 40 63 3 2.40 2 3 0 CHC,SFG,SDP,LAD,NYM,PHI CIN 1972-09-16 1973-04-11 13 13 0 0 2 13 117 88 31 25 28 65 4 1.92 2 4 0 SDP,SFG,HOU,LAD,ATL
The record (post 1954?) for most consecutive games with a save is 7 by 4 teams. You can find that list here.
The lists in this post were generated using the "Team Pitching Streak Finder". Setting "saves" = 1 will generate the list of consecutive games with saves. Setting "saves" = 1 and changing the "Team" from "either" to "win" will generate the original list.
July 23rd, 2009 at 8:20 pm
This ties in with something I've wondered about for some time now. Every few years, someone sets a new major league record for number of saves in a season. Eventually, a realistic maximum is going to be reached. While the theoretical maximum is 162, no team has ever come close to a 1.000 winning percentage in a season. And a team that wins 100+ games in a season is going to have some victories in the following categories, in which a save will not be recorded (or likely not be recorded):
1. Walk-off victory at home. By the time the home team comes to bat in the bottom of the ninth, one thing is for certain - win or lose, nobody on their staff is going to get a save, no matter how long the game goes on.
2. Blow out, or at least a win by a margin of four or more runs. Yes, a winning team's pitcher can still get a save by pitching the last three innings in a game of any score without relinquishing the lead, but you can almost be sure that the team is not going to insert their closer in such a situation. And how many times have you seen a team warming up their closer in the bottom of the 8th at home or the top of the 9th on the road, and then tack on more runs before that turn at bat is done? The closer may still come into the game at that point, especially in the National League, where the previous pitcher may have left for a pinch hitter, but he's not in line to get a save.
3. Excellent performance by a starter. (Of course, these days, with pitch counts and setup men and lefty specialists, even starters working on shutouts may get pulled. And again, in the NL, he may get pulled for a pinch hitter.)
It may make for an interesting exercise to determine the percentage of games in which a save is recorded. This could be further broken down by how many of these saves are the type of saves that people usually think of these days - by a pitcher who has been annointed a "closer" who comes into the game in the ninth and gets the job done - and how many are of other types (like Wes Littleton earning a save in a 30-3 game).
July 26th, 2009 at 4:17 pm
The save record was just broken for the first time in 18 years, despite the extreme decrease in complete games and increase in one-inning closers over that period. I think it's apparent it has reached a realistic maximum.
July 27th, 2009 at 8:52 am
I disagree. Eighteen years is not a long time in baseball terms (look how long some other records – like Ruth's single-season home run record, Sisler's single-season hits record, Rube Waddell’s modern-era single-season strikeout record, etc. – held until broken), especially when dealing with an aspect game that is evolving or has recently evolved. The leader boards are littered with records that held up for more than 18 years but were eventually broken – often multiple times. We may have found the range of typical seasonal league leaders, but eventually a Maris, Ichiro, or Koufax comes along; an extraordinary player, in an extraordinary circumstance; and sets the new mark.
My gut feeling is that eventually someone will get into the upper 70’s or low 80’s in saves. Some team will win 110+ games (and many close games) and have a top-notch closer that will not only get a large number of save situations, but will have a career season in terms of save percentage; the “perfect storm” scenario for breaking the record.
July 27th, 2009 at 11:32 am
Tommepp- Unless a manager decides to use his closer for 1 batter at a time, I don't think "the upper 70’s or low 80’s in saves" is realistic. Since 1954 a pitcher has made more than 76 appearances of an inning or more in 1 season only 3 times. Two of them were by Mike Marshall. Given the recent emphasis on pitch counts, innings and rest, I find it highly unlikely that any manager would risk pitching his closer that much. This would be especially unlikely with a team like the one you described. Such a team would most likely be running away with their division and resting up for the playoffs.
July 27th, 2009 at 1:34 pm
We're talking about the maximum here, not a "typical" season. Marshall had 97 appearances in 1974, and Koch had 80 appearances as recently as 2002. It is not unusual for a closer to appear in back-to-back games if a save situation exists, especially if he gets "quick" saves (low pitch counts). Theoretically, a two games in, one game rest pattern could produce 108 appearances. Even I’m willing to admit that that would not occur for an entire season, but 80+ appearances is not out of the realm of possibility. A top-shelf closer can convert 90+% of save opportunities in a career season. 80 opportunities x 90% conversion rate = 72 saves; and I think that each of those values can be topped, thus mid-to-upper 70’s (or even low 80’s) as a maximum. Again, I’m not saying that this figure could be achieved in just any season, or that it will be achieved in the near future – but it is possible that it could happen someday.
If such blogs existed in the past, I’m sure you’d find people arguing that 70 home runs, 192 runs scored, 36 triples, 191 RBIs, 130 stolen bases (in the modern era), 120(!) bases on balls, and 383 strikeouts (in the modern era) were impossible, too, based on typical plate appearances and batters faced data.
July 27th, 2009 at 2:18 pm
My main point was that the save record is absolutely not being broken every few years, as DoubleDiamond claimed. That was the case in the 1980s, not now. I am also not saying that no one will ever top 62 saves (or whatever K-Rod had). But we have reached a "realistic" maximum, as I understand the term to mean. If you chart the number of saves achieved by the top guys in the league each year, I believe you'll find those numbers have leveled off. Closers are being used in a way to maximize their save totals; there is no realistic way to get them more save opportunities than they already do.
I don't consider any of the records Tomepp listed in his last paragraph to be similar, because one can conceive of them being broken if various elements of the game evolve in a particular direction. To get a save requires a particular combination of circumstances, many of which have nothing to do with the player's own performance, which limit the opportunity.
July 27th, 2009 at 5:33 pm
That is part of my point; the use of closers is evolving, and I’m not so sure that we’ve reached the end of the evolution. The five year rolling average for saves by the Major League leader rose steadily from 33.6 in 1980 to 50.4 in 1994, then dipped steadily to 44.2 in 1997 and 1998 (due in part to the players strike of 1994-95). It has since risen again reaching a peak of 52 in 2005, and has hovered just above the 50 mark since then (technically, it was 49.8 in 2007). While it seems to have leveled off, four years is hardly a reliable sample.
This is exactly the kind of evolution that the home run record went through in the 1920’s. The five year rolling average for home runs by the Major League leader rose steadily from 15.6 in 1918 to 48.4 in 1924, then dipped to 43.0 in 1926 before rising again reaching a peak of 52.6 in 1930, then hovered in the low 50’s for awhile before dropping back to the mid- to upper-40’s. During that time, Ruth set the “maximum” single season record of 59 in 1921, but then broke his own record with 60 in 1927. Even that record eventually fell 34 years later (in 1961) when Maris hit 61 homers, and that, too, fell in 1998 (when Mac hit 70) and again in 2001 (Bonds 73).
So my point is that K-Rod’s 62 saves last year may be the local peak, but it is far from assured that it will remain unbroken in the future. Like Ruth, Rodriguez may break his own record the way the Mets are using him (if they can manage to get enough runs to give him save situations). Or perhaps in the future some one-year-wonder will eclipse K-Rod’s mark a-la Roger Maris. Or perhaps the role and use of the closer will again evolve and a new era will emerge a-la Mac and Bonds (though hopefully without the use of illegal performance enhancement techniques).
This is why I consider all the records I mentioned in my previous post to be similar and relevant. To get more saves, one must have an extraordinary pitcher in an extraordinary situation (always a possibility – K-Rod blew 7 of 69 opportunities last year; next year he might only blow 5 of 72…), or the way closers are being used could change (13 of K-Rod’s GF were less than 1 IP; who knows, maybe in the future closers will only pitch to 1 batter on average), or the rules could change (perhaps the 3-run limit is lifted or modified, or the season is expanded to 175 games, or…).
As a footnote, I recall having a conversation with a colleague in 1991 after Cecil Fielder hit 51 homers the previous year. He was saying that it would be impossible for anyone to again hit 61 homers in a season, since Fielder became only the second player to even eclipse 50 over the past 25 years. I argued that not only would 60 be reached, but I boldly (if brashly) predicted that someone – probably one of the Bash Brothers, Canseco or McGwire – would hit 65 within our lifetime. I based that not on a statistical analysis, but on the fact that the game was changing. Players were bulking up, and power was becoming a commercial commodity. A few years earlier, Big Mac had set the rookie record for homers (49), and had missed an opportunity to get 50 to witness the birth of his son.
Now I will boldly (if brashly) again make a prediction – someone will get 65 saves in our lifetime. It may not come as quickly as the home run mark (just 7 years after my prediction), but it will happen.
July 27th, 2009 at 9:45 pm
But see, based on your numbers, it appears the rolling average has remained just about at 50 for 15 years or so. Closers are not getting any more saves. Like I said, yes K-Rod's record could be broken by some individual under a "perfect storm" scenario, but in general we have reached a limit. (Obviously if the season is lengthened, or the criteria for getting a save are changed, that changes everything.)
Reliever usage will probably continue to change, as it has throughout history, but there simply doesn't seem to be a way those changes can get closers any more save opportunities. I can't imagine a notable increase in 1-batter saves. Managers are going to wait to use their closers until there are men on base with 2 outs? Or regularly let one reliever get the first two outs with a 1-run lead, and then bring in another guy for the last out? There won't be enough chances like that, and it doesn't make strategic sense either.
Another difference between saves and other stats is there is an absolute limit to saves which does not exist for other stats. Obviously we are not near the absolute limit, but we are definitely bumping up against the realistic limit. I just don't think it can be compared to HR at all.
Anyway, we may be arguing past each other in a way, since I'm not saying the record is unbreakable. I just don't think it can go too much higher.