The Phillies’ acquisition of Hunter Pence may be one of the greatest trades in baseball history
Posted by Andy on September 10, 2011
Back on July 30th, the Phillies acquired Hunter Pence from the Astros. It's not tough to see that he has been a huge help to his new team. In 36 games, he has a 144 OPS+ with 7 HR and 23 RBI. The team has gone a blistering 26-9 (.743) since Pence came over. The team offense averaged 4.35 runs per game before Pence and 5.34 since.
There's no doubt that he's been quite valuable to the team and has helped their offense come closer to matching the excellent performance of their pitching. Pence's contributions could be a major factor if the Phillies have post-season success this year.
They gave up a lot to acquire Pence--3 minors leaguers plus a 4th to be named. You can read about these players here, but the bottom line is that two of them were among the best players in the Phillies' minor-league system. Right away our minds go to players like Jeff Bagwell and John Smoltz, who were similarly dealt as youngsters to a team trying to make a playoff push. Complaints are lodged about a team mortgaging its future by acquiring a guy like Larry Andersen or Doyle Alexander, only to have the team fail to win the World Series and see the minor-leaguer turn into a future All-Star.
However, we need to remember a few key things:
- The examples I gave above of Bagwell and Smoltz are the exceptions. There are many more minor-leaguers dealt at the trading deadline who don't have notable major-league careers. Let's just look at some other deals around the trade deadline in 1990, the year Bagwell was dealt. The Pirates got some bullpen help in Jay Tibbs and gave up Dorn Taylor. The Padres got Tom Lampkin and gave up touted prospect Alex Cole, who ended up not having much of a major-league career. The Braves gave up a vaunted young pitcher Derek Lilliquist for Mark Grant. The Blue Jays got rotation help by acquiring John Candelaria, giving up Nelson Liriano and Pedro Munoz. The Red Sox also got offensive help in Mike Marshall and gave up Paul Williams, Ed Perozo, and Greg Hansell. The Phillies went after Dale Murphy and Tommy Greene and gave up Jim Vatcher and Jeff Parrett. All of these examples show youngsters being traded for established players, but the youngsters didn't pan out into stars. (To be fair, later that year the Pirates acquired Zane Smith from the Expos and gave up, among others, Moises Alou.) The point is, though, that even with established prospects, the odds are still fairly low that these players will be worth all that much in the future.
- Pence is arbitration eligible next year, meaning the Phillies can keep him if they want, or let him go in exchange for a draft pick.
- The Phillies are getting old. Had they not traded those young players, maybe they would come around in 2-3 years and help the big-league team. By then, Jimmy Rollins will be gone. Raul Ibanez will be gone. Chase Utley doesn't appear to be the same player anymore. Ryan Howard...well I think you know how we feel about him. This year is the time for them to try to win another World Series, not hold on to their youngsters, hope they pan out, and try to replace their star players with others. The future might be just as bright for the Phillies or it might be dismal--but clearly this year they have an excellent chance. Going for it with the Pence trade was the right move.
- What if the Red Sox had kept Bagwell? Well starting in 1992 they had Mo Vaughn at first base. They didn't really need Bagwell. If they had him, would they have won one or more championships? Probably not..they were not that close for most of the 1990s. I think it's easy to mistakenly assume that things will turn out really well--that traded minor-league prospects will become All-Stars or that the team will win the World Series if just one or two correct moves are done. The fact of the matter, though, is that few minor-league prospects turn into All-Stars and only one team wins the World Series each year.
I think the Phillies made the right decision and they are my championship favorite in 2011.
September 10th, 2011 at 11:26 am
It's a nice trade but dude, hit the breaks - it's a small sample at best. He needs to do it in the post season - so do the Phils.
The Dave Justice trade was a far superior deal; the only man to hit 20HR for 2 teams in a Season (NY & Clev ) and helped the NYY win a World Series.
The Tino Martinez - Jeff Nelson fleecing of Seattle trumps both.
Simma down a bit and lets revisit this topic IF the Phils win the WS.
September 10th, 2011 at 11:28 am
Joe Nathan, Francisco Liriano, and Boof Bonser for a year of A.J. Pierzynski
September 10th, 2011 at 11:41 am
The Phillies would not get a draft pick if Pence leaves. They either offer him arbitration and he stays or they don't and he leaves and they get nothing.
September 10th, 2011 at 11:44 am
This topic / thread is nearly as bad as asking if Mo is the Greatest Closer ever - smells of a humbled Filthy fan still in pain of their 09' beating ...
September 10th, 2011 at 11:54 am
Andy,
Hunter's definitely tearing it up, but don't you think it is because of his protection now? Not that there is anything wrong with that.
I kind of think the Phils and Astros have a Faustian pact ala KC and the Yanks of the 50's - 60's, having now taken Happ and Myers off their hands.
And speaking of bad, short sided trades, recently you gotta include CC (Brews) and Beltran (stros), maybe even the Big Unit (again Stros). Not only did the Astros trade away youngsters for half year walk aways, but they also held on to aging players for too long (although I loved both Biggio and Bagwell, I think the Yankees are in similar problems with Posada and Jeter), but they let go of the wrong slugger (Berkman, not Lee and his toxic contract), and they drank the cool aid on the Clemens 13 start, roid fueled, 16 million dollar fools gold, and took a burn on Petite returning to the Yankees.
With closers, no luck there either, they let Valarde, Lidge and Wagner go in a row, gave up on Todd Jones who still had two 40 save seasons in him. They failed to develop the very talented Octavio Dotel (but so did every other team [unteachable]). I know they don't win often, but at 22 saves, I don't think they'll reach 30. Not since the strike in 1994 (29) did they fail thirty, so really it was 1984 (29) when they failed to get to 30 saves. Just a bunch of bad decisions in a row.
They took the moody Kent in his twighlight, which I heard messed their good clubhouse chemistry up and put teamer, Biggio - in a bad CF.
They named their park (at least at first) after America's 3rd worst financial embarrassment, Enron (at least they did not name it Maddoff or TOO BIG TO FAIL!)
I think with the loss of Pence, and all the above mentioned, they are doomed for the foreseeable future.
Pence = huge mistake.
September 10th, 2011 at 12:01 pm
@ 1
Justice is not the 0nly 20/20. Off the top of my head Big Mac in 97.
Tino was not traded if I remember, he was a FA.
Winning the world series is a crap shoot at best. The best team has not won in a while. Andy said it made the team better. The WC team has one like 10 WS.
And I think Andy either states or lets the numbers show it is a small sample, but to ignore a .750 winning % over 35 games, is silly. 35 games makes or breaks a team. Heck 25 games can. If the Astros went 20-16, maybe you can say something… but .750… dude, really?
September 10th, 2011 at 12:07 pm
Sorry 1, you were right, Tino was traded.
But Seattle made the play-offs the next year, so how exactly were they burned?
They also had the best record EVER, 6 years after the Tino trade. That after loosing A-Fraud, Big Unit, and Jr.
I think they made out OK.
Oh, yeah, that best team ever in 2001, had Jeff Nelson pitch in the 2nd most games for the team, strike 12 per 9 and had a 152 ERA+.
Yeah they were robbed. Call the police.
September 10th, 2011 at 12:14 pm
It is not the acquisition of a player that makes him good or bad but rather how the player is used.
If the Yankees got Babe Ruth and then sat him on the bench while using him in PH roles every 5 games then he would not be the player we know him to be
It's the way you use the player and not the player himself that makes him good or bad.
September 10th, 2011 at 12:39 pm
> The WC team has one like 10 WS.
The WC team has *won* exactly 4 WS (1997, 2002, 2003, and 2004).
September 10th, 2011 at 12:48 pm
I think a right-handed hitting Jeff Bagwell taking aim at the "Green Monster" every summer in Boston would have far surpassed Mo Vaughn's output. Heck, Bagwell's first 9 years were played in the cavernous Astrodome!
Aside from trading away Babe Ruth, the Redsox basically giving away Bagwell to the Astros is the worst trade in MLB history.
September 10th, 2011 at 12:56 pm
@7
So much wrong with what you said. What happened in 2001 is meaningless when looking at a trade made before 1996. Few trades will still have an impact that much further in the future. Yes, Jeff Nelson returned to Seattle as a free agent.
But let's look at the guys in that trade:
1) Russ Davis hit .256/.309/.446 with a 92 OPS+ and was worth -1.3 WAR during his 4 years with the Mariners from 1996-1999.
2) Sterling Hitchcock pitched one year for the Mariners, 1996. In that year he went 13-9 with a 5.35 ERA, still only a 93 ERA+ even for the steroid era. His WHIP was 1.617 and his WAR was only 0.4. He was then traded to San Diego for a guy even worse than that whom Seattle then traded during the following season for nobody of consequence.
3) Jim Mecir pitched badly for the Yankees in 1996 and 1997, but then went on to become a fairly effective middle reliever for several years for Tampa Bay and Oakland.
4) Jeff Nelson threw 293.1 IP over 5 years with the Yankees where he had a 3.41 ERA, 139 ERA+ and 9.6 K/9. Of course he was still a little wild. But he pitched to a 5.5 WAR over those years, and he was very effective in the postseason, especially the World Series.
5) Tino Martinez hit 175 home runs over 6 years with a 114 OPS+ and a WAR of 13.1.
Was it the greatest trade ever? No, certainly not.
Did the Mariners get anywhere close to equal value? No, absolutely not.
So, in retrospect, is it fair to say that the Mariners were "robbed?" Yes.
September 10th, 2011 at 1:06 pm
Like I said Seattle were fleeced ....
YOu wanna throw in Bobby Kelly for Paul O'Neill ...
The Scott Brosius deal anyone?
Dave Cone for Marty Janzen?
How we bow down to Stick Michael...
September 10th, 2011 at 1:16 pm
@10 Bagwell was playing 3rd in the minors when he was traded. So, after Boggs leaves in 1992, the Sox could have had Vaughn and Bagwell at the corners. Instead they got Vaughn and Scott "Wait, he really made 2(!) All-Star teams?" Cooper.
September 10th, 2011 at 1:30 pm
Talking about great trades how about the Yankees trading Cedric Durst for Red Ruffing in 1930.
September 10th, 2011 at 1:34 pm
a mention of fred mcgriff is necessary here: July 18, 1993: Traded by the San Diego Padres to the Atlanta Braves for Vince Moore (minors), Donnie Elliott and Melvin Nieves. After the trade, the Braves went 53-18, and McGriff had a 164 OPS+...then he went on to three straight All-Star appearances as a Brave.
Meanwhile, Vince Moore never got out of the minors, Donnie Elliott managed one good season but was out of baseball by 25. And Nieves finished his career with a lifetime 93 OPS+.
September 10th, 2011 at 1:40 pm
One of the greatest trades in baseball history? Yeah, hit the brakes. : -) Let's check back in five years, or even ten, to first see if it's even a good deal, let alone calling it once of the greatest ever.
@7, Duke, everything @11, Pat D, said. Your strawman about how the deal didn't "burn" the Seattle organization has nothing to do with @1's comment. Based on the players, it was a great deal for the Yankees and it wasn't for the Mariners.
September 10th, 2011 at 1:41 pm
It should be pointed out that the 4th player to be named later was Domingo Santana, a top prospect in his own right[9th(Phillies) per fangraphs, 13th per phuturephillies.com going into the season] and not the organizational filler that most were expecting.
September 10th, 2011 at 1:43 pm
#1. It's 'BRAKES'.
Greatest trade ever? Hardly.
Typical bad writing. Maybe you should try writing for Bleacher Report. They have really low standards.
September 10th, 2011 at 1:59 pm
oh andy, you so crazay
September 10th, 2011 at 2:02 pm
I thought SF got the better player and that didn't work out.
September 10th, 2011 at 2:31 pm
@ 20
SF got the better player about.... if the trade was made 4 years ago
September 10th, 2011 at 2:34 pm
@ 16 and 11,
Fair enough, Seattle did not get the best out of the trade, but I think they knew Tino was gone. I think they knew where he was going. I think they got the best they could instead of a Draft pick.
And Jeff Nelson had some great seasons after that, and some terrible ones, Seattle doesn't have a crystal Ball.
They were also, IMO, screwed by Griffey Jr. Instead of Griffey letting their be a fair market with lots of bidders, he screws his old team by saying he is only going to Cincy. I forget Cincy's GM at the time but he was ruthless with the trade. Thank god Mike Cameron and Griffey getting hurt saved some face in Seattle (not that I wanted Griffey hurt), but Cameron had 2-3 very good years with Seattle, great defense, great bat.
The problem is Seattle does not invest big money into scouting. If they did, they could or should of got tons of 1st round pics for A-rod, Grff, Unit, Tino, etc, then robbed the farm systems and highschools of other teams and have a solid core ala Billy Beane, instead of Smoak and Figgins and Cust.
I also think Seattle isn't terribly concerned with winning. I heard they make payroll and then some just with merchandising Ichiro abroad.
September 10th, 2011 at 2:47 pm
So, they gave up the #70 prospect, #39 prospect, a pitcher with a high strikeout rate that has had some success in the minor leagues, and a 19 year-old with rising prospect status for a guy that was a borderline top-tier outfielder and he's hit for more power and walked a bit more than expected so far. There was really little question the Phillies would make the playoffs, and likely win the division, when he was acquired. Since then, they have put a ton of distance from themselves and everyone else in the National League, and Pence has provided 1.3 WAR in the effort. Pence has provided the Phillies value, but this trade can hardly be evaluated until at least after the postseason, and then after the Phillies decide what to do with Pence for 2012 and we see how the prospects turn out. Seems like a decent trade, but calling it one of the greatest trades ever at this point is absurd.
September 10th, 2011 at 3:04 pm
Pedro Martinez for Delino Deshields, anyone?
September 10th, 2011 at 3:05 pm
Bad trades:
NY Mets.
A 24 year old Ken Singelton for Rusty Staub.
Lenny Dykstra and Roger McDowel for Juan Samuel.
Kevin Mitchell for Kevin McReynolds.
Mike Scott for Danny Heep.
Kevin Appier for Mo Vaugn.
Nolan Ryan for Jim Fregosi.
Tom Seaver for Doug Flynn.
Rick Aguilera for Frank Viola.
Melvin Mora for Mike Bordick.
September 10th, 2011 at 3:16 pm
I think this is a good trade. As Andy notes, the Phillies are old. They have two many guys on the downslope, and won't be able to replace them fast enough, even if they keep all their prospects. So, the future is now, and why not get some insurance? Even better that the insurance has longer-term upside and can be retained.
The trades that are really questionable are the rentals. I think of Randy Johnson - he was the prospect sent (with others) by Montreal to Seattle for Mark Langston in '89, who turned out to be a rental for a Montreal team that only managed a 4th place finish. Nine years later, Johnson was the rental player, as Houston packaged up Freddy Garcia, Carlos Gullen and John Halams to get him. The Astros made the post-season in '98 and (thanks to the trade), Seattle did the same three years later. Ironically, without Johnson, the Astros still made the post-season again the following year.
September 10th, 2011 at 3:22 pm
In 100 games in Houston this year, Pence accumulated 2.8 WAR. In his first 36 games in Philadelphia, he's accumulated about half that (1.3). I think that' another awesome detail supporting this trade as good for Philly.
September 10th, 2011 at 3:47 pm
For the last 5 minutes since I read the Yankees and the Mariners brought up in the comments I've had Jerry Stiller's voice screaming "How could you trade Jay Buhner?" This has been alternating with Larry David's voice answering "My people said 'Ken Phelps.'"
September 10th, 2011 at 4:27 pm
Shouldn't an historically great trade involve a really good player? Hunter Pence is good, but ... his next 5-WAR season will be his 1st.
And if a 28-year-old is a key to making your team younger, you're probably looking at a really old team.
Good, solid, smart trade by Philly, who are committed to going for championships right now.
BTW, I never let a mention of Smoltz-for-Alexander pass without noting what a longshot it was for Smoltz to pan out as he did. He was a 22nd-round pick in 1985; at the time of the trade, he was 20 years old and getting his butt kicked in AA; he wound up that year with a 5.73 ERA and more walks than Ks. Meanwhile, Alexander absolutely won the division title for Detroit.
You roll the dice and take your chances. Smoltz became a great pitcher, but the odds against that happening were like 100-1 at the time. It wasn't a bad trade by Detroit by any stretch of the imagination -- nothing like Bagwell for Andersen.
September 10th, 2011 at 4:28 pm
Don't know what the "best" or "worse" trade ever was, but everytime I watch the Colorado Rockies this process of trades makes me mad as an A's fan (all this dealing by the master Billy Beane.)
Carlos Gonzalez, Huston Street, Greg Smith for 4 months of Matt Holliday
Matt Holliday for Brett Wallace, Clayton Mortensen, Shane Peterson
Clayton Mortensen for Ethan Hollingsworth (P, age 24, AA-AAA (3.76 ERA, 6 K/9)
Shane Peterson (OF, age 23, AA-AAA (.274-9-59-13)
Brett Wallace for Michael Taylor (2/10 MLB) (OF, age 25, AAA .272-16-64-14)
So in essence over these few years, the A's have traded a currently 25 year old outfielder with a batting title, silver slugger and gold glove award for a 25 year old outfielder with 10 major league at bats. MONEYBALL IN ACTION!
September 10th, 2011 at 4:51 pm
What a weirdly stupid post.
September 10th, 2011 at 4:51 pm
Amos Rusie for Christy Mathewson.
September 10th, 2011 at 5:00 pm
@25 Duke (Boys of Summer) of Flatbush...
June 15, 1977 the trade deadline massacre.
Tom Seaver for Dan Norman, Doug Flynn, Pat Zachary and Steve Henderson.
M. Donald Grant didn't want to pay Seaver. I was ten when this
trade was made and can remember everyone spilling into the streets
to discuss almost immediately after it was announced.
The Mets reacquired Seaver in 1983 and he went 9-14 . Thinking he wouldn't be selected in the compensation draft, they left him unprotected.
The Chisox selected him and he won 31 games the next two seasons
including and ERA+ of 136 in 85.
The Mets therefore have the distinction of losing Seaver twice through
bad management.
The only satisfaction is that the original ownership group that still owned the team in 1977 sold it three years later to Fred Wilpon for $12,000,000.
They were cheap with Seaver and missed out on paying the big salaries,
and also missed out on the huge increases in team values.
Karma.
September 10th, 2011 at 5:05 pm
Ernie Broglio, Doug Clemens and Bobby Shantz for
Jack Spring, Paul Toth and an underachieving OF named Lou Brock.
September 10th, 2011 at 6:21 pm
John Autin @ 29
As a Tigers fan I still suffer a few pangs of remorse over his trade but the reality is that: a) Detroit could not gotten a better performance out of who they traded for even if it had been Roger Clemens or Frank Viola or Teddy Higuera or Dave Stieb or any other of the pitchers who had good numbers that season and b) even if Detroit had kept Smoltz it's highly unlikely he would have brought them any division titles. It might have been closer in '91 & '93 and maybe they might have been motivated to make a trade that might have put them over the top for one of those seasons but from '94 until 2005 it would have been like a diamond on top of a manure pile: when you get right down to it they would have still been mostly crap.
And as much as it pains me to say this, the trade still didn't put them over the top in '88 either. Even with Alexander going 9 and 0 they still finished 1 game behind Boston.
September 10th, 2011 at 6:25 pm
About the whole "what-if" thing surrounding the Bagwell trade, the Sox could've just used Vaughn as a DH. Bagwell & Vaughn would've been a nasty 1-2 punch.
September 10th, 2011 at 6:25 pm
The Pence trade is a very good trade in a sense that it certainly fulfilled a need that the Phillies have (right handed hitting outfielder with some power) and that Pence's personality and style of play fit well in the city of Philadelphia and in the Phillies' clubhouse. With Raul Ibanez's contract coming off of the books next season it would have left the Phillies with potentially two outfield slots that need to be filled (the jury is still out on Dominic Brown and while Mayberry has played really well is his role this year it would still be fair to question whether he can repeat the performance or expand upon it ala what Jason Werth did), so this was a move not just for this season but also for the next few years beyond. After a history of extremely poor trades (Ferguson Jenkins, John Herrnstein, and Adolpho Phillips for Bob Buhl and Larry Jackson & Larry Bowa and that throw in Ryne Sandberg for Ivan DeJesus being the worst two), the Phillies seem to have turned around their "luck" with trades in recent years.
I believe it is the greatest trade THIS YEAR, but far from the greatest trade ever, and I doubt that this is one that will wind up cracking anyone's top 20 list (other than maybe a few Phillies' fans) of the best trades ever when it gets looked back upon in the future.
September 10th, 2011 at 6:50 pm
The measure of a great trade needn't be how one sided the exchanged players were. It should be more about how much the trading teams helped their interests e.g. short-term vs. long-term, pitching vs. hitting, etc., which I think is part of what Andy was getting at in the article. This is the 3rd trade that the Astros and Phillies made in a year (starting with the Oswalt/Happ deal). The way both teams felt about the results of that trade has likely developed a level of comfort between the two teams that contributed to the subsequent trades.
There are only 29 other MLB teams a GM can trade with, he can't afford to burn too many of these bridges if he hopes to be able to improve his team in the future.
September 10th, 2011 at 7:33 pm
What about Bartolo Colon to Montreal for Phillips, Sizemore, Cliff Lee, et al... Not bad.
September 10th, 2011 at 10:16 pm
Yeah, it's good and all, but...one of the greatest ever? Woody Williams gave the Cardinals two great months in 2001. He provided 2.1 WAR over those two months. Hunter Pence won't really come terribly close to that (he's at 1.3 with the Phils now). Lankford provided very little value after he left. The Cardinals were 53-51 at the time of the trade went 40-18 after the trade staging an enormous comeback to tie for the best record in the NL
I use this example to claim that Lankford for Williams was one of the greatest trade in baseball history. It was great...but one of the greatest? Yet, it was still clearly better and a much larger impact than this Hunter Pence trade. We also as of yet don't know the talent that the Phillies gave up.
September 11th, 2011 at 12:35 am
"Trading" Babe Ruth for money is hands-down dumbest for one team, greatest for the other.
Brock to Cardinals meant three World Series appearances and two World Championships in four years. Maybe they win in either '67 or '68 without (which is doubtful) but certainly he was the difference between the Cardinals finishing behind Phils, Giants and Reds and instead winning it all. Three WS and two WC.
Frank Robinson for Milt Pappas, Jack Baldschun and Dick Simpson? The Reds had won in 1961, just missed repeating in '62 and finished one game back in '64. After F Robby left they didn't sniff postseason again until 1970. Baldschun was already a washed-up reliever who'd lost his pop, Simpson was an athlete attempting to play baseball and Pappas was a mediocre pitcher whose 12-11 record in 1966 with a 4.29 ERA was the insult added to injury.
Meanwhile Robinson won the 1966 Triple Crown and the O's won. He was beaned in the face in '67 when he was the only guy who might have stopped Yaz from taking that Triple Crown and in '68 was not quite right. But then a healthy Frank led to three consecutive World Series appearances and another World Championship. Four WS and two WC.
The Reds didn't win a World Championship until Pappas, Baldschun and Simpson were all long gone from baseball and F Robby had become (playing) manager of the Cleveland Indians.
The Cubs didn't win a World Championship until...oh, yeah.
September 11th, 2011 at 12:38 am
Oh, and if you check the records you will find that both Brock and Robinson are among the most productive World Series performers ever as well. Brock stole bases like mad and Robinson was one of the most prolific home run hitters.
September 11th, 2011 at 1:34 am
@2, in SF, we do not discuss that trade, or use the P-word in polite company.
September 11th, 2011 at 1:53 am
[...] lived up to recent praise, reaching in all 5 trips, including his 19th [...]
September 11th, 2011 at 2:50 am
@25 Doug Flynn wasnt all they got for Seaver. They also got Steve Henderson an OF that had a few decent years. Pat Zachry a pitcher. And another guy who was so unimportant I cant remember him.
No disagreement that it was a bad trade, though. Since I believe Henderson was the only one that amounted to anything, and that for only a handful of years.
September 11th, 2011 at 2:56 am
Well for my Royals, I remember the 3 trade deal with Col/Oak. That essentially in their bright wisdom gave up Jermaine Dye for Neifi Perez. But, Herk Robinson and his successor (Allard Baird? I've tried to put it out of my mind) werent known for their brilliance.
September 11th, 2011 at 7:40 am
I'd say 3 of McGriff's 4 trades were lopsided.
September 11th, 2011 at 9:08 am
Mandy&Andy: We don't listen to what MikeyG.
He is obviously a NY Skanyees fan with tunnel vision. AS most of them are...
September 11th, 2011 at 9:50 am
You lost credibility when you said the Phillies went for it by trading for Dale Murphy and Tommy Greene by giving up Jeff Parett and Jim Vatcher...The Phillies were in dead-last back then...and they didn't go after Tommy Greene...he was an unknown youngster who was a throw in...And Jeff Parrett was a veteran, not a prospect...
September 11th, 2011 at 10:19 am
Here's a series of transactions that backfired.
On August 5, 1973 the Cardinals were leading the division by 5 games at 61-50.
From Aug. 7 to Sept. 26, they sold 3 players and traded 2, they bought 5 and received two by trade.
They went 20-31 in their last 51 games to lose the division by 1.5 games
Only 1 player of the 7 that they received played for the Cards in 1974.
September 11th, 2011 at 10:31 am
Of the top 2 teams in each division in 1973, here are the number of transactions in August and September.
Cards 8
Athletics 5
Dodgers 2
Mets, Reds, Royals 1
Orioles, Red Sox 0
September 11th, 2011 at 11:46 am
It's always easier to state nonsense AFTER the facts. Brock for Brogglio. Brock had the hands of stone. Atrocious fielder. Didn't have the arm for rightfield, wasn't smart enough to play center, not to mention he couldn't field. That leaves leftfield ONLY. Who did the Cubs have playing left? Now you know the rest of the story.
September 11th, 2011 at 11:56 am
Another AFTER the fact trade. Jenkins , Phillips,Hernstein for Jackson and Buhl. Both Buhl and Jackson were proven vets. In fact, Jackson was essentially an ace of every team he played for including the Phillies after the trade. Jenkins was an unknown quanity. In other words, it's not like the Phillies got nothing for a future HOF'r.
September 11th, 2011 at 12:02 pm
Same could be said about the Pappas for Robinson trade. It's often stated the Reds got nothing in the trade. Pappas was a solid starter for almost his entire career. Although the trade now seems unfair, actually it wasn't AS bad as it seems now
September 11th, 2011 at 12:12 pm
The Phillies were heading to the post-season with the number 1 seed with or without Pence.
He has been outstanding for the Phillies. With him, they are going to win 108 games or so. Without him, they would be looking at 105 wins or so.
Now, they get him for two more years, and that's where the real value of the trade will be assessed.
But when you're so firmly entrenched in the driver's seat as the Phillies have been all year long, you don't go out and trade two top-100 prospects, along with other prospects for a guy like Hunter Pence.
September 11th, 2011 at 12:28 pm
Hartvig is absolutely right with his assessment of the Smoltz for Alexander trade.
You have to take your shots when you can. Alexander carried that team to the post-season on his back.
At no point from 1988 through 2005 were the Tigers "one John Smoltz" away from making the playoffs.
September 11th, 2011 at 11:20 pm
Catching up, a few things:
I agree that Smoltz-Alexander should not be considered a bad trade. To me, that's always been the classic now-for-later trade. The Tigers were looking to win now, and Alexander gave them even more than they could have expected. Smoltz was a prospect, and obviously he panned out and then some. But generally, a "sure" thing now is worth more than a possibility later (Wimpy economics). And there's no guarantee Smoltz would have become "Smoltz" in Detroit -- I think Cox and Mazzone probably had a positive impact on him.
***
I knew this had to be an Andy post, based on the headline. 🙂
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Generally, I'd say the worst (or best) trades (or signings) are those which looked bad at the time, *and* turned out badly. As MLS notes, the Brock-Broglio trade was certainly defensible at the time. It turned out bad but it's hard to blame a GM for not being prescient. (Hopefully he's smart enough to come out ahead most of the time, but no one can foresee everything.)
September 22nd, 2011 at 7:24 am
Has everyone forgotten the Orioles trading Steve Finley,Pete Harnisch and Curt Schilling for Glenn Davis