Bunting for the First Out of the Game
Posted by Raphy on August 16, 2011
Last night, with a runner on first and no outs in the top of the first inning, Derek Jeter came to the plate and promptly lay down a sacrifice bunt. Now, I can imagine that in certain environments such a play might be warranted. If Jeter was on a horrible offensive team, facing Sandy Koufax in his prime, with an equally impressive hurler going for Jeter's team and this could have been the one opportunity of the game for a run, then maybe, this play would have made sense . However, with one of baseball's most prolific line-ups facing a kid pitcher, and a starter who hadn't won in over a month going for his own team, you have to wonder what he was thinking. What's even more amazing is that Jeter is not nearly alone.
The second hitter of the game has come to the plate with a runner of first 333 times this season. In 32 of those plate appearances the batter has bunted, resulting in 9 singles, 6 pop outs, 3 force outs, and 14 sacrifices. Here are the bunts:
| Yr# | Gm# | Date | Batter | Tm | Opp | Pitcher | Score | Inn | RoB | Out | Pit(cnt) | RBI | WPA | RE24 | Play Description | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 2011-04-03 | Freddy Sanchez | SFG | @LAD | Hiroki Kuroda | tied 0-0 | Out | t1 | 1-- | 0 | 1 (0-0) | 0 | -0.02 | -0.18 | 1.51 | Bunt Groundout: P-1B (P's Left); Torres to 2B |
| 2 | 1 | 2011-04-08 | Derek Jeter | NYY | @BOS | John Lackey | tied 0-0 | Out | t1 | 1-- | 0 | 1 (0-0) | 0 | -0.03 | -0.37 | 1.43 | Bunt Popfly: C (Front of Home) |
| 3 | 1 | 2011-04-19 | Matt Tolbert | MIN | @BAL | Jake Arrieta | tied 0-0 | Out | t1 | 1-- | 0 | 1 (0-0) | 0 | -0.02 | -0.20 | 1.45 | Bunt Groundout: C-1B (Front of Home); Span to 2B |
| 4 | 1 | 2011-04-19 | Angel Sanchez | HOU | @NYM | Jonathon Niese | tied 0-0 | Out | t1 | 1-- | 0 | 2 (0-1) | 0 | -0.02 | -0.18 | 1.49 | Bunt Groundout: P-1B (Front of Home); Bourn to 2B |
| 5 | 1 | 2011-04-26 | Corey Patterson | TOR | @TEX | Matt Harrison | tied 0-0 | 1B | t1 | 1-- | 0 | 1 (0-0) | 0 | 0.05 | 0.62 | 1.41 | Single to P (Bunt to Weak 1B); Escobar to 2B |
| 6 | 1 | 2011-04-29 | Freddy Sanchez | SFG | @WSN | Jason Marquis | tied 0-0 | Out | t1 | 1-- | 0 | 1 (0-0) | 0 | -0.02 | -0.18 | 1.49 | Bunt Groundout: P-1B (Front of Home); Rowand to 2B |
| 7 | 1 | 2011-04-30 | Matt Tolbert | MIN | @KCR | Sean O'Sullivan | tied 0-0 | 1B | t1 | 1-- | 0 | 1 (0-0) | 0 | 0.09 | 0.97 | 1.47 | Single to C (Bunt to Front of Home); Span to 3B/Adv on E2 (throw) |
| 8 | 1 | 2011-05-01 | Ramon Santiago | DET | @CLE | Justin Masterson | tied 0-0 | Out | t1 | 1-- | 0 | 1 (0-0) | 0 | -0.02 | -0.19 | 1.47 | Bunt Groundout: 1B unassisted (Weak 2B-1B); Rhymes to 2B |
| 9 | 1 | 2011-05-02 | Carlos Gomez | MIL | @ATL | Jair Jurrjens | tied 0-0 | Out | t1 | 1-- | 0 | 1 (0-0) | 0 | -0.02 | -0.18 | 1.49 | Bunt Groundout: C-1B (Front of Home); Weeks to 2B |
| 10 | 1 | 2011-05-03 | Xavier Paul | PIT | @SDP | Mat Latos | tied 0-0 | 1B | t1 | 1-- | 0 | 1 (0-0) | 0 | 0.06 | 0.59 | 1.53 | Single to 3B (Bunt Popup to Short 3B Line); McCutchen to 2B |
| 11 | 1 | 2011-05-04 | Matt Tolbert | MIN | @CHW | John Danks | tied 0-0 | Out | t1 | 1-- | 0 | 1 (0-0) | 0 | -0.02 | -0.21 | 1.43 | Bunt Groundout: P-1B (Short 3B Line); Span to 2B |
| 12 | 1 | 2011-05-14 | Corey Patterson | TOR | @MIN | Nick Blackburn | tied 0-0 | Out | t1 | 1-- | 0 | 1 (0-0) | 0 | -0.02 | -0.20 | 1.46 | Bunt Groundout: C-2B (Front of Home); Escobar to 2B |
| 13 | 1 | 2011-05-19 | Jonathan Herrera | COL | @PHI | Kyle Kendrick | tied 0-0 | Out | t1 | 1-- | 0 | 2 (1-0) | 0 | -0.03 | -0.35 | 1.47 | Bunt Popfly: C (Front of Home) |
| 14 | 1 | 2011-05-26 | Alexei Ramirez | CHW | @TOR | Brandon Morrow | tied 0-0 | Out | t1 | 1-- | 0 | 3 (1-1) | 0 | -0.03 | -0.36 | 1.43 | Bunt Groundout: P-SS/Forceout at 2B (Front of Home) |
| 15 | 1 | 2011-05-30 | Erick Aybar | LAA | @KCR | Luke Hochevar | tied 0-0 | Out | t1 | 1-- | 0 | 2 (0-1) | 0 | -0.02 | -0.19 | 1.47 | Bunt Groundout: P-1B (Front of Home); Izturis to 2B |
| 16 | 1 | 2011-06-14 | Dustin Pedroia | BOS | @TBR | James Shields | tied 0-0 | Out | t1 | 1-- | 0 | 2 (0-1) | 0 | -0.03 | -0.34 | 1.49 | Bunt Popfly: P |
| 17 | 1 | 2011-06-19 | Erick Aybar | LAA | @NYM | Jonathon Niese | tied 0-0 | Out | t1 | 1-- | 0 | 2 (0-1) | 0 | -0.03 | -0.34 | 1.49 | Bunt Popfly: 3B |
| 18 | 1 | 2011-06-20 | Ben Zobrist | TBR | @MIL | Chris Narveson | tied 0-0 | 1B | t1 | 1-- | 0 | 1 (0-0) | 0 | 0.06 | 0.60 | 1.47 | Single to P (Bunt to Short 3B Line); Damon to 2B |
| 19 | 1 | 2011-07-16 | Alexei Ramirez | CHW | @DET | Max Scherzer | tied 0-0 | Out | t1 | 1-- | 0 | 1 (0-0) | 0 | -0.02 | -0.19 | 1.46 | Bunt Groundout: P-1B (Weak 2B-1B); Pierre to 2B |
| 20 | 1 | 2011-07-30 | Darwin Barney | CHC | @STL | Kyle Lohse | tied 0-0 | Out | t1 | 1-- | 0 | 1 (0-0) | 0 | -0.02 | -0.18 | 1.51 | Bunt Groundout: P unassisted (Short 1B Line); Castro to 2B |
| 21 | 1 | 2011-08-01 | Miguel Cairo | CIN | @HOU | Bud Norris | tied 0-0 | Out | t1 | 1-- | 0 | 2 (0-1) | 0 | -0.02 | -0.18 | 1.51 | Bunt Groundout: P-1B (Front of Home); Stubbs to 2B |
| 22 | 1 | 2011-08-03 | Derek Jeter | NYY | @CHW | Gavin Floyd | tied 0-0 | 1B | t1 | 1-- | 0 | 1 (0-0) | 0 | 0.05 | 0.61 | 1.43 | Single to 3B (Bunt to Short 3B Line); Gardner to 2B |
| 23 | 1 | 2011-08-06 | Nyjer Morgan | MIL | @HOU | Brett Myers | tied 0-0 | 1B | t1 | 1-- | 0 | 1 (0-0) | 0 | 0.06 | 0.60 | 1.51 | Single to P (Bunt to Short 1B Line); Hart to 2B |
| 24 | 1 | 2011-08-07 | Felipe Lopez | MIL | @HOU | Bud Norris | tied 0-0 | Out | t1 | 1-- | 0 | 3 (2-0) | 0 | -0.02 | -0.18 | 1.51 | Bunt Groundout: 1B unassisted (Short 1B Line); Morgan to 2B |
| 25 | 1 | 2011-08-07 | Eric Sogard | OAK | @TBR | David Price | tied 0-0 | Out | t1 | 1-- | 0 | 1 (0-0) | 0 | -0.03 | -0.34 | 1.49 | Bunt Groundout: 3B-SS/Forceout at 2B (Weak 3B) |
| 26 | 1 | 2011-08-09 | Jason Bartlett | SDP | @NYM | Chris Capuano | tied 0-0 | Out | t1 | 1-- | 0 | 2 (0-1) | 0 | -0.03 | -0.34 | 1.49 | Bunt Popfly: C-SS/Forceout at 2B (Front of Home) |
| 27 | 1 | 2011-08-10 | Nyjer Morgan | MIL | @STL | Jake Westbrook | tied 0-0 | 1B | t1 | 1-- | 0 | 1 (0-0) | 0 | 0.06 | 0.60 | 1.51 | Single to 1B (Bunt to Short 1B Line); Hart to 2B |
| 28 | 1 | 2011-08-11 | Nyjer Morgan | MIL | @STL | Chris Carpenter | tied 0-0 | Out | t1 | 1-- | 0 | 1 (0-0) | 0 | -0.03 | -0.33 | 1.51 | Foul Bunt Popfly: C (Behind Home) |
| 29 | 1 | 2011-08-11 | Melky Cabrera | KCR | @TBR | Jeff Niemann | tied 0-0 | 1B | t1 | 1-- | 0 | 1 (0-0) | 0 | 0.06 | 0.60 | 1.49 | Single to C (Bunt to Front of Home); Gordon to 2B |
| 30 | 1 | 2011-08-12 | Melky Cabrera | KCR | @CHW | Zach Stewart | tied 0-0 | 1B | t1 | 1-- | 0 | 1 (0-0) | 0 | 0.05 | 0.61 | 1.43 | Single to C (Bunt to Short 3B Line); Gordon to 2B |
| 31 | 1 | 2011-08-14 | Andy Dirks | DET | @BAL | Jo-Jo Reyes | tied 0-0 | Out | t1 | 1-- | 0 | 1 (0-0) | 0 | -0.03 | -0.36 | 1.45 | Bunt Groundout: P-SS/Forceout at 2B |
| 32 | 1 | 2011-08-15 | Derek Jeter | NYY | @KCR | Felipe Paulino | tied 0-0 | Out | t1 | 1-- | 0 | 1 (0-0) | 0 | -0.02 | -0.19 | 1.47 | Bunt Groundout: P-1B (Weak 3B); Gardner to 2B |
EDIT: The post above was found using all PA's and searching for bunt in the play description. A search for sacrfice bunts, reveals an additional play:
| Yr# | Gm# | Date | Batter | Tm | Opp | Pitcher | Score | StSc | InnSc | BOP | Pos | Inn | RoB | Out | Pit(cnt) | RBI | WPA | RE24 | Play Description | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 1 | 2011-06-05 | Alexi Casilla | MIN | @KCR | Jeff Francis | tied 0-0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 6 | FC | t1 | 1-- | 0 | 4 (2-1) | 0 | 0.10 | 1.10 | 1.47 | Fielder's Choice 1B; Revere to 3B/Adv on E3 (throw); Casilla to 2B |
August 16th, 2011 at 1:37 pm
That's an awful lot of bunts for hits...I wonder how many the bunts were intended to go as hits instead of sacrifices.
What was the historical rate during the steroids era? Probably a lot closer to the 4% I guessed when you posed this question to me before posting.
August 16th, 2011 at 1:51 pm
How about Felipe Lopez bunting on a 2-0 pitch from Bud Norris? He must have been going for a hit since it was a 3UA groundout, but why don't you swing away there?
August 16th, 2011 at 2:15 pm
@Genis26: Because you're Felipe Lopez?
August 16th, 2011 at 2:33 pm
What about bunting for the last out of a game?
I know Otis Nixon did that in the WS, which was not just the last out of the game, but of the season as well.
How would one run a search to check for bunting for the 27th out?
I'm good with the PI finder for seasons and careers, but just cutting my teeth when it comes to Game searches.
Any help there?
August 16th, 2011 at 2:34 pm
Here in Metsville, we call this bunt "the Castillo." With a man on first or second, nobody out, first inning, Castillo sacrificed 17 times, including nine in 2009 alone. He once did it in three consecutive games (July 18-20).
Ten of those times, the Mets got zero runs.
I cannot tell you what kind of a relief it is to look at the above list and see not a single New York Met hitter upon it...
August 16th, 2011 at 2:35 pm
@1 I don't have time for all of the steroid era. Here are the numbers back to 2005.
August 16th, 2011 at 2:38 pm
Jeter was trying to help Felipe Paulino record at least one out and keep Paulino off the "Worst Starting Pitcher Performances since xxxx" lists. Classy move by a classy veteran.
(-;þ
August 16th, 2011 at 2:39 pm
Also, I remember a game, during the outrageously horrendous 91 or 92 Mets, when the # 3 hitter (I think it was Butch Huskey) sacrifice bunted in the first inning. (Is 'bunted' the correct past tense? Sounds funny).
Well, I remember, even at a young age thinking how strange it was to not only see a #3 hitter sacrificing, but to see it in the first inning of a scoreless game.
Does anyone recall this play, or one like it?
And how infrequent, percentage wise, is a first inning no out, no score bunt?
August 16th, 2011 at 2:48 pm
@4 The only way I could think of is to search for all game ending play appearances and then search each web page of results for the word "bunt". For 2011 we have these:
Winners:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/MIL/MIL201105280.shtml
Losers:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/ANA/ANA201105110.shtml
August 16th, 2011 at 2:52 pm
@8 I am absolutely stunned.
From just 2005-2011 there were 34 sac bunts by the #3 hitter in the first inning.
http://bbref.com/pi/shareit/RRn0Y
August 16th, 2011 at 2:56 pm
How can you be sure a bunt is a sacrifice bunt?
If the guy tries for a sac bunt and get on base, will he turn down the hit and say "Oh I wasn't trying to do that"
August 16th, 2011 at 2:58 pm
@11 Dave
Can you please explain your question?
I don't know what you're getting at.
August 16th, 2011 at 3:02 pm
This happened in the Twins/Tigers game as well last night. Plouffe made the first out bunting Revere over to third.
August 16th, 2011 at 3:07 pm
@ 13
You are correct. My original post was going to include that game, but then I changed the topic slightly. I should have fixed the title.
August 16th, 2011 at 3:14 pm
@10
I am not sure which is more surprising... the fact that the Dodgers hit Julio Lugo third that game, or the fact that the line up hit three home runs that day, despite being a line up that features the likes of Julio Lugo in the three hole.
August 16th, 2011 at 3:16 pm
From just 2005-2011 there were 34 sac bunts by the #3 hitter in the first inning.
Three times by one player: Carlos Beltrán, Mets.
[*boggle*]
August 16th, 2011 at 3:24 pm
KT - here I am still in therapy about Castillo's sac hits... and you bring up Beltrán's!
This is like that gif of Tobey McGuire dancing from Spider-Man 3, only if he were Shane Victorino, and throwing out a bunting Met.
August 16th, 2011 at 3:29 pm
I didn't see the exact bunt last night, so i can't make an educated guess of the apparent intention...
But watching Jeter over the years, he has many times tried to bunt for a hit with a man on first (early in the game) hoping for, at worst, a sac bunt. Kind of like hedging his bet. I believe there is a rule that states the scorer could give the batter an out (instead of sac bunt) if the intention for a hit is obvious. That is another one of those scoring rules that is usually ignored.
Just last week Gardener and Jeter both got bunt hits as the first 2 hitters of the game (08/03/2011 game shown above).
Jeter doesn't usually "give himself up" with a straight sacrifice until later in the games (when more appropriate).
August 16th, 2011 at 3:45 pm
Crazy at it sounds, don't many managers construct their lineups specifically for this purpose? The leadoff guy is usually a speed guy, hopefully with high-OBP, but not always. The #3 guy is the best overall hitter and the #4 guy is the best raw-power guy.
But very often, the #2 hitter is just a waste. Its often some middle-infielder with bat control whose sole purpose is to "move the runner over" for the big bats. Not every team does this but half the teams are getting .315 OBP or less from the #2 slot.
Personally, I don't agree with this, this scrappy hitter would be better off batting 8th or 9th with everyone else moving up one, but the effect of that fix isn't "huge" and many still like to play by the old book.
August 16th, 2011 at 4:08 pm
@11, If someone lays down an obvious sacrifice bunt, he can still be given a hit. It doesn't really matter what he intended to do.
August 16th, 2011 at 7:08 pm
Milwaukee batters have done this five times so far this year--four times in a five day stretch between August 7 and 11, three times by Nyjer Morgan. They won three of those four games. SSS. Also, given the Phillies' rotation who would have guessed that the only time this has been done against them was with Kyle Kendrick on the mound.
August 16th, 2011 at 7:55 pm
23 of 32 times the strategy succeeded: bunter got a hit or advanced the runner. Derek Jeter is a team player. Get the team started early on knocking this kid pitcher out.
Hey, Dave & Raphy, Re: posts 11 & 12 and "how do you know the batter was trying to sacrifice instead of getting a hit?" That's what official scorers are for. Highly empathic individuals are hired for those jobs, in order to make use of their ESP talents and read the batter's minds. On bad days, they check the rule book where it says "the batter shall be awarded a sacrifice, unless the play results in his reaching first base, in which case he shall be awarded a hit."
Or words to that effect. My ESP is a little off these days, I still don't understand why the Cubs didn't trade Zambrano long ago.
August 16th, 2011 at 9:05 pm
@22, Phil -- That's one view of "success" in that situation. Another view is, 72% of those plays resulted in an out.
As for the value of trading an out for a base in the first inning, you can look up Tangotiger's "Run Expectancy By Run Environment" table. Let's give the sacrifice the fairest shake possible by assuming a fairly low offensive context of 3.5 R/G -- facing a tough pitcher, say, or playing in Petco:
-- The average runs scored following a situation of man on 1st with 0 outs is 0.731 runs.
-- The average runs scored following a situation of man on 2nd with 1 out is 0.578.
The "successful" sacrifice reduces the total run expectancy by 0.153 runs, roughly 1/6 of a run. It substantially reduces the chance of a crooked number.
And for what gain? It does increase the chance of scoring exactly 1 run, but only from 0.176 to 0.225, or roughly 5 percentage points. That's not enough to make me want to play for 1 run in the 1st inning.
BTW, the scoring average this year is 4.15 R/G in the NL, 4.37 in the AL, 4.25 combined.
The table:
https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pkimQBCeCjbjIgxJ9vKvJSQ
August 16th, 2011 at 9:51 pm
Hmmm. The 2002 version of the Runs Created formula rates this particular sample at 5.62 RC/game--making it look effective. However, the bunt single rate seems rather high in this sample, and the sample only seems to include bunt attempts that go into play, which doesn't reflect the effects of unsuccessful bunts on the rest of the plate appearances (with the more likely than not 0-1 count following said unsuccessful bunt attempts tending to drag BA, OBP, and SA down for said plate appearances).
August 16th, 2011 at 9:53 pm
In Jeter's slight defense, Paulino is a hard-throwing righty, the type of pitcher he's had little success against over the past two seasons.
Of course, he subsequently went on to get a couple hits against him.
***
If someone lays down an obvious sacrifice bunt, he can still be given a hit. It doesn't really matter what he intended to do.
I think the issue is about the converse (inverse? obverse?): If the batter is "obviously" bunting for a hit, but gets thrown out, can he be given a sacrifice? I've heard that he should not be, but I don't know if that's actually the rule.
August 16th, 2011 at 10:19 pm
I am old enough to remember Vince Coleman trying to bunt his way on for the first out of what seemed to be every game!
August 16th, 2011 at 11:07 pm
I am old enough to remember Vince Coleman trying to bunt his way on for the first out of what seemed to be every game!
James, if you're a Mets fan, and if the box-score accounts are correct, you remember these five games:
5/17/91; 6/4/92; 6/14/92; 4/22/93; and 7/24/93
(I'm old enough to associate pure fan disgruntlement with Vince Coleman's time in New York. (-;þ )
August 16th, 2011 at 11:29 pm
I think for most players the purpose of the strategy is to try to reach first base by either hit or error, with the compromise of a sacrifice as the most likely alternative outcome, and very little chance of a double play. It may sound ridiculous to have had Carlos Beltran give himself up as the #3 hitter with two men on, but he had good speed, and it does put a lot of pressure on the defense to make a play. I think a lot of teams feel players put more pressure on themselves when they're playing from behind - hence the advantage of getting on board in the first inning. Certainly, there's a psychological disadvantage to letting a rally start in the first inning by throwing a bunt attempt into the outfield grass.
August 17th, 2011 at 1:25 am
Now we're talking about Vince Coleman?
This whole thread just won't stop stabbing me in my soul.
August 17th, 2011 at 11:46 am
#19 is correct. Many managers do this; I remember Adam Everett bunting Biggio every time he got on in the first inning. I think Bill James once noted that the biggest divergence in performance from team to team was in the second spot in the lineup.
August 19th, 2011 at 8:01 pm
To be fair to Jeter usually when he does something like bunt early in the game he is expecting to catch the defense sleeping. I don't think anyone has ever accused him of hedging his bets so that he either gets a hit or no lump on his stats for the sacrifice out.
August 26th, 2011 at 4:46 pm
atlas travel insurance...
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