Carlos Beltran ends MLB’s 3-HR game drought
Posted by Andy on May 13, 2011
Yesterday, Carlos Beltran had the first 3-HR game of the 2011 season. It took a long time to get there. Check out total such games from each year since the beginning of The Steroids Era:
| Year ▾ | #Matching | |
|---|---|---|
| 2011 | 1 | Ind. Games |
| 2010 | 13 | Ind. Games |
| 2009 | 8 | Ind. Games |
| 2008 | 5 | Ind. Games |
| 2007 | 5 | Ind. Games |
| 2006 | 11 | Ind. Games |
| 2005 | 6 | Ind. Games |
| 2004 | 13 | Ind. Games |
| 2003 | 12 | Ind. Games |
| 2002 | 14 | Ind. Games |
| 2001 | 22 | Ind. Games |
| 2000 | 9 | Ind. Games |
| 1999 | 16 | Ind. Games |
| 1998 | 11 | Ind. Games |
| 1997 | 11 | Ind. Games |
| 1996 | 15 | Ind. Games |
| 1995 | 7 | Ind. Games |
| 1994 | 8 | Ind. Games |
| 1993 | 4 | Ind. Games |
(Aside: is there any doubt that 2001 was the peak offensive year? Runs/game was quite as high as some other nearby years, but it seems like just about every individual offensive stat was at a high in 2001.)
It took until the Mets' 37th game for any player in MLB to hit 3 HRs in a game.
In 2010, there has been 2 such games by the time each team played 37 games.
In 2009, though, there were no 3 HR games within each team's first 37 games, and yet there were 8 in the remainder of the season.
So, we'll see what happens this year. As with all rare events (like triples, which we recently talked about) they can sometimes come in bunches, or sometimes go long stretches with none.
May 13th, 2011 at 11:01 am
It was the 8th 3-HR game in Mets history -- all on the road. Twice, a Met has had a 3-HR game in Dodger Stadium, and once in the Astrodome,* for cryin' out loud!
Beltran was the 2nd Met to hit 3 HRs with at least 1 from each side of the plate. Jose Reyes did it in 2006 -- in an 11-4 blowout <emloss to Philly.
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* The Astrodome mauler was Edgardo Alfonzo, in his famous 6-for-6, 6 runs, 5 RBI, 3 HRs and a double game, tying the modern record for runs scored in a game -- and it was a 9-inning game.
May 13th, 2011 at 11:03 am
This is good for the Mets if they are looking to unload Beltran or Reyes. Let's see how desperate clubs are in July...they will come calling on these 2 guys if they keep it up. Little doubt that the Mets will look to build around Wright and look to dump anyone else with a big long term contract.
May 13th, 2011 at 11:07 am
@1 John A,
I was at that Mets-Phillies game when Reyes hit the 3 HR. That was a strange game because Reyes hit 3 HR yet the Mets were blown out 11-4.
May 13th, 2011 at 11:25 am
Just curious...why was 1993 chosen as the "beginning" of the steriod era?
May 13th, 2011 at 11:54 am
@3, John Q -- It's odd that the Mets have lost 4 of Reyes's 6 multi-HR games, as well as the game in which he hit for the cycle (2006-6-28).
May 13th, 2011 at 12:01 pm
@4, Chuck -- In 1993, the MLB scoring average increased 11% from the year before, from 4.12 to 4.60. That's a big spike. (By comparison, when HRs soared in 1987, the scoring average went up only 7%.)
No doubt, some of the '93 increase was due to two expansion teams, especially the one in Denver that allowed (gulp) 5.97 R/G. But given the spike, and the fact that scoring stayed very high for the next 15 years or so, that's probably why '93 is generally considered the start of the period.
Whether '93 actually was a significant moment in terms of PED use, I have no idea.
May 13th, 2011 at 12:09 pm
I assume 1993 was chosen as the start of the "steriod era" because run scoring in MLB jumped almost half a run a game that season above the 1992 level (and then went up another third of a run in 1994). It is only now that run scoring seems to be returning to pre-1993 levels. To be more neutral, you could call it the "modern high-run-scoring era" but that's not as catchy.
May 13th, 2011 at 12:37 pm
I cannot accept that the PED era started in 1993. Those A's teams of the late 1980's and early 90's were up to something. If I had to put brackets on it, I would say the era was 1987 through 2003.
Heck maybe even that 2003 should be further out...until they have a test for HGH.
May 13th, 2011 at 1:07 pm
@8, Steve -- It might be reasonable to say "the PED era" began in 1987, but I think if you use the phrase that way, you will confuse your readers.
The name "the PED era" (or "the steroids era") has already been attached to the recent high-scoring era. You may be entirely right that PED use was already becoming widespread by 1987, but I think the ship has sailed; for better or for worse, the era that is essentially defined by high scoring (which began in '93) has already been named for the widespread PED use -- even though no one really has a clue what percentage of the scoring increase came from the PEDs. (After all, many pitchers PEDs, too; and there was mile-high baseball, and two rounds of expansion, and some hitter-friendly parks came on the scene, and hitters were trying for more HRs....)
May 13th, 2011 at 1:32 pm
I use "The Steroids Era" as shorthand for the recent high-scoring era we've been in, so JA's explanation in #6 is the most accurate for my use of the term. I agree with Steve and others that for sure, some players were using before 1993.
May 13th, 2011 at 2:08 pm
@5 John A, That is kind of strange, I forgot about the Cycle game. You would think you would win most of the multiple HR games your leadoff hitter has. Those are like bonus HRs.
I remember thinking at the time (8/15/06) that Reyes had a really good chance to get 20+ HR, 3b, 2b, Sb in a season. I think Willie Mays and George Brett were the only players to do that before 2006. I think both Jimmy Rollins and Curtis Granderson did it in 2007.
May 13th, 2011 at 2:15 pm
John Q -- FWIW, Reyes is one of 11 players with at least 2 seasons of 15+ HR, 3B and 2B; Lou Gehrig (4) is the only one with more than 2. (And I didn't quite cherry-pick the cutoff, as Reyes had at least 17 of each in one season and 16+ in the other.)
Carl Crawford is the only other active player with 2 "15-15-15" seasons; Rollins and Granderson are the other actives with 1.
May 13th, 2011 at 2:24 pm
Random Reyes split notes:
(1) His career rate of triples is much higher from the left side, as you would expect, given the edge out of the batter's box. But his combined rate of (doubles + triples) is identical from both sides, 7.2% of ABs.
(2) His career HR rate is almost the same from each side: 1.8% of AB hitting left, 1.9% hitting right.
(3) However, for 2010-11 combined, his power has been way better from the left side. Last year his ISO was .171 left, .079 right; this year it's .187 left, .103 right.
May 13th, 2011 at 2:58 pm
Kingman (6-4-76 in LA) is only other Met to hit 3 HRs with a man on (3 HR, 8 RBI); Carter (9-3-85 vs SD) also had a 3 HR, 6 RBI game but hit a 3 run, 2 run and solo HR.
May 13th, 2011 at 3:03 pm
JA @1
We should expect 3-HR games to be more prevalent on the road than at home because of the correlation between players hitting 2 home runs at home and the team not batting in the bottom of the ninth. E.g Beltran's 3rd came in the 9th inning last night with the lead so he presumably wouldn't have hit if the Mets had been the home team (all other things being the same). I don't think this is enough to explain every single occurrence (there are other factors such as park factors, luck of the draw, etc.).
I don't think there is any easy way to figure out how often the 3rd HR occurs in the top of the 9th with a lead, but I would expect it is a non-neglible percentage.
May 13th, 2011 at 4:44 pm
@15, Evan -- Great point. Wish I'd thought of it. Still, I don't think it will fully explain the 8-0 split for the Mets, or even close to it.
Over the past 50 full seasons, there have been 363 3-HR games:
-- 162 at home (44.4%)
-- 201 away (55.6%)
So road batters definitely have an advantage, but not a huge one.
May 13th, 2011 at 6:40 pm
@15 Evan, Excellent point.
I was at a pretty wild Red Sox game back in 1996 where Frank Thomas hit 3 HR, Tartabull hit 1Hr, and Robin Ventura hit 1HR.
Then Mo Vaughn hit 2HR and John Valentin hit 2HR.
It was basically a Home Run derby game back and forth until Troy O'leary hit a single to win it in the bottom of the 9th.
I remember everybody was cheering for Thomas in the top of the 7th because he already had 3HR and then suddenly everybody started booing because Thomas was intentionally walked.
That had to be one of the few times in Fenway Park history that the crowd was booing a Red Sox pitcher/player and rooting for the opponent.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/BOS/BOS199609150.shtml
May 14th, 2011 at 4:04 am
Eric @ #14
I was at the 6/4/76 game in which Dave Kingman hit three home runs at Dodger Stadium. Two were off of Burt Hooton and one off of Al Downing. In Kingman's final at bat Downing struck him out on six balls. The 3-2 pitch Kingman struck out on bounced four feet in front of the plate. Downing took his pitching coach's "don't give him anything good enough to hit" advice to heart. Tom Seaver pitched a 3-hit shutout in that 11-0 Met win.
May 14th, 2011 at 4:57 pm
Three visiting players homered 3x in a single game at Shea including, the first, Dick Allen on the final day of the 1968 season........
I guess the PED era started when we began to routinely see 215 lb second baseman batting clean-up.
Hey, did Kevin Elster really hit 24 HR's in 1996?
May 14th, 2011 at 6:15 pm
@ 19 Paul E,
Yeah Elster barely played from 1992-1995 (123 Plate Appearances) and then he came back with a 24 HR season in 1996 at age 31. Before 1996, 24 HR by a short-stop would rank 25th all time from 1876-1995.
What made it even more odd is that Elster was never really a full-time player. I think 1989 was the only season he had over 500 plate appearances. his previous high was 10 HR in a season.
1996 was strange. I remember being in a fantasy baseball team for the first time and players like Elster weren't even drafted after 20 rounds and Elster finishes fourth among ss in HR. Todd Hundley broke the single season hr recored for catchers. Brady Anderson was picked somewhere in the 14th round and he ends up hitting 50 HR. Ken Caminiti was probably picked around the 10th round and he won the MVP. There was something like 17 players hitting over 40HR that season.
Mark Mcgwire wasn't even drafted. He was hurt starting the '96 season and would miss the first month of the season and he had missed most of the past 3 seasons because of injury.
So as a result the guy who won had a very strange team that no one could have predicted would have won.
There were 43 players with 30+ HR that season which was shocking. And then you had guys like Ed Sprague, Jeff King, Steve Finley, and Geronimo Berroa with 30+.
The comparisons are kind of shocking:
10 players hit 30+ HR in 1992.
22 players hit 30+ HR in 1993.
43 players hit 30+ HR in 1996.
From 1982-1992 it stays pretty consistent to about (12) 30 hr+ players each season with '87 (28) (30+ HR Players) and '88 (5) (30+ HR Players) as the anomalies.
There were (10) 30+ HR players in the strike year of 1994.
May 14th, 2011 at 7:09 pm
Elster did hit 24 HRs in '96 with Texas, and surprisingly, he hit 15 of them on the road.
He still had just a 90 OPS+, though, thanks to a .317 OBP that was 33 points below the AL average.
May 16th, 2011 at 10:43 pm
I definitely remember that Elster season. Me and my boy were trying to decide whether he or Brady Anderson was the bigger cheater.