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Just how bad is Albert Pujols’ season?

Posted by Andy on June 6, 2011

Albert Pujols is having a subpar season by his own amazing standards. (OK, I wrote this post minutes before Pujols' second straight walkoff HR. Give me a break!)

Through Saturday, he had a 127 OPS+ in this, his age 31 season. Since 1901, a total of 107 players have qualified for the batting title in their Age 31 season with an OPS+ between 122 and 132.

That group of players includes names such as Hi Myers, Heinie Peitz, Moose Solters, David Dellucci, Randy Winn, Nixey Callahan, Johnny Kling, Jeff Blauser, and Al Zarilla. That's not exactly fantastic company.

Of course, the group also includes Tris Speaker, Frank Thomas, Chuck Klein, Arky Vaughn, Larry Doby, Chick Hafey, Al Simmons, Zack Wheat, and Johnny Bench.

It's all the more striking given similar comparisons to other years from Pujols' career. For example, here are all the players to have an OPS+ between 185 and 195 in their year 28 season:

Rk Player Year OPS+ Age Tm Lg G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB IBB SO HBP SH SF GDP SB CS BA OBP SLG OPS Pos
1 Albert Pujols 2008 190 28 STL NL 148 641 524 100 187 44 0 37 116 104 34 54 5 0 8 16 7 3 .357 .462 .653 1.114 *3/D4
2 Manny Ramirez 2000 186 28 CLE AL 118 532 439 92 154 34 2 38 122 86 9 117 3 0 4 9 1 1 .351 .457 .697 1.154 *9D
3 Lou Gehrig 1931 194 28 NYY AL 155 738 619 163 211 31 15 46 184 117 0 56 0 2 0 0 17 12 .341 .446 .662 1.108 *3/9
4 Harry Heilmann 1923 194 28 DET AL 144 626 524 121 211 44 11 18 115 74 0 40 5 23 0 0 9 7 .403 .481 .632 1.113 *93
5 Ty Cobb 1915 185 28 DET AL 156 700 563 144 208 31 13 3 99 118 0 43 10 9 0 0 96 38 .369 .486 .487 .973 *8
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 6/5/2011.

That's been done by many fewer players and, on average, a much higher class.

Here's another one for Pujols' last season: Age 30, OPS+ between 169 and 179:

Rk Player Year OPS+ Age Tm Lg G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB IBB SO HBP SH SF GDP SB CS BA OBP SLG OPS Pos
1 Albert Pujols 2010 173 30 STL NL 159 700 587 115 183 39 1 42 118 103 38 76 4 0 6 23 14 4 .312 .414 .596 1.011 *3
2 Jim Thome 2001 170 30 CLE AL 156 644 526 101 153 26 1 49 124 111 14 185 4 0 3 9 0 1 .291 .416 .624 1.040 *3/D
3 Larry Walker 1997 178 30 COL NL 153 664 568 143 208 46 4 49 130 78 14 90 14 0 4 15 33 8 .366 .452 .720 1.172 *9/38D
4 Mike Schmidt 1980 171 30 PHI NL 150 652 548 104 157 25 8 48 121 89 10 119 2 0 13 6 12 5 .286 .380 .624 1.004 *5
5 Joe Torre 1971 171 30 STL NL 161 707 634 97 230 34 8 24 137 63 20 70 4 1 5 18 4 1 .363 .421 .555 .976 *5
6 Rico Carty 1970 170 30 ATL NL 136 560 478 84 175 23 3 25 101 77 6 46 2 0 3 19 1 2 .366 .454 .584 1.037 *7
7 Carl Yastrzemski 1970 177 30 BOS AL 161 697 566 125 186 29 0 40 102 128 12 66 1 0 2 12 23 13 .329 .452 .592 1.044 *37/8
8 Willie McCovey 1968 174 30 SFG NL 148 608 523 81 153 16 4 36 105 72 20 71 5 0 8 10 4 2 .293 .378 .545 .923 *3
9 Mel Ott 1939 174 30 NYG NL 125 508 396 85 122 23 2 27 80 100 0 50 1 11 0 5 2 0 .308 .449 .581 1.030 *95
10 Lou Gehrig 1933 176 30 NYY AL 152 687 593 138 198 41 12 32 139 92 0 42 1 1 0 0 9 13 .334 .424 .605 1.030 *3
11 Hack Wilson 1930 177 30 CHC NL 155 709 585 146 208 35 6 56 191 105 0 84 1 18 0 0 3 0 .356 .454 .723 1.177 *8
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 6/5/2011.

It's the same story.

It's true for all players (and in fact all people) that they won't stay at their peaks forever. Pujols has to decline sometime. Thankfully, at just age 31, it seems a lot more likely that he's either distracted by his contract status or has some injury than he's just lost it.

Posted in Uncategorized | 24 Comments »

Random Recap for Sunday, June 5

Posted by John Autin on June 6, 2011

Washington 9, Arizona 4 (11 innings): In a game that featured 5 hit batsmen and a pair of manager/pitcher ejections, 4 things stand out:

  • Mike Morse broke the game open with a grand slam in the 11th, his 8th HR and 2nd salami of the year. At the end of April, Morse had a .211 BA and .268 SLG. Since May 1, he has hit .378 and slugged .707, with 7 HRs in 82 AB.
  • Aaron Heilman served up a 3-run HR in the 8th. Besides his 8.84 ERA and 6 HRs in 19.1 IP, Heilman has allowed all 5 inherited runners to score this year.
  • Another strong start by Ian Kennedy: 7 IP, 1 R, lowering his ERA to 3.01. If not for one disastrous game back in April (9 R in 3 IP), Kennedy would have a 2.15 ERA.
  • Tyler Clippard fanned 6 of the 8 batters he faced. He came on with a 1-run lead in the 6th after Jason Marquis was ejected with 1 out and 2 aboard, and struck out Stephen Drew and Justin Upton. Clippard has 42 Ks in 34.2 IP, a 2.08 ERA and 0.92 WHIP; his 13 holds are tied for the MLB lead.

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Posted in Uncategorized | 21 Comments »

Batting Around Before Getting Out

Posted by Raphy on June 5, 2011

The PI event database, which includes all games since 1974 and most games (1043 are still missing) from 1950-1973, has 10 instances of a team batting around before making their first out of the game.  Here they are in reverse chronological order. You can find the play-by-play description by clicking on the title for each game. Read the rest of this entry »

Posted in Event Finders | 29 Comments »

Random Recap for Saturday, June 4: Albert Phattens Up; Padres Streaking at Home?

Posted by John Autin on June 5, 2011

Cardinals 5, Cubs 4 (12 innings): The 2nd HR of the game by Albert Pujols won it in bottom of the 12th -- his first walk-off hit since August 28, 2009. Something tells me Albert doesn't often get much to hit in potential game-winning moments: In high-leverage situations, his career BA is .347, with .654 slugging, and he has a .451 OBP in late-and-close situations. Tonight was also his first 4-RBI game of the season, and his first game with 3 extra-base hits in almost a year.

  • Of the 6 pitchers who appeared for the Cards, the highest ERA after the game was 2.41, by SP Kyle Lohse.

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Posted in Uncategorized | 24 Comments »

Only career stolen base coming in first game

Posted by Andy on June 4, 2011

Here are the 21 players since 1919 to have a stolen base in their first career game and to never steal another base in their careers:

Rk Player From To G PA CS Pos
1 Greg Golson 2008 2010 31 30 2 /*987
2 Dennys Reyes 1997 2010 670 60 0 *1
3 Matt Macri 2008 2008 18 36 1 /*543D
4 Jaime Bubela 2005 2005 11 20 0 /*8D7
5 Michael Coleman 1997 2001 22 70 1 /*8D97
6 Terry Bradshaw 1995 1996 34 71 3 /789
7 Wayne Housie 1991 1993 29 27 0 /8D9
8 Trench Davis 1985 1987 23 34 0 /8
9 Gene Verble 1951 1953 81 219 1 /645
10 Ernie White 1940 1948 121 181 0 *1
11 Hersh Lyons 1941 1941 1 1 0 /*1
12 Red Tramback 1940 1940 2 5 0 /*9
13 Hugh Alexander 1937 1937 7 11 0 /97
14 Johnny Berger 1922 1927 11 18 0 /*2
15 Ed Cotter 1926 1926 17 27 0 /56
16 Camp Skinner 1922 1923 34 47 0 /87
17 Jake Miller 1922 1922 3 13 0 /*9
18 Paul Johnson 1920 1921 69 216 3 /879
19 Roy Grimes 1920 1920 26 60 1 /*4
20 Bill Hollahan 1920 1920 3 6 0 /*54
21 Earl Pruess 1920 1920 1 1 0 /*9
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 6/4/2011.

Greg Golson will probably get off this list one day. He's injured right now but will probably play in the majors again at some point. Notice that there are a few pitchers on here--that's not terribly surprising. Pitchers don't get stolen bases too often, so a guy getting one in his first game has a better chance than a position player for that to be his only one.

Posted in Uncategorized | 18 Comments »

Name that Hitter

Posted by John Autin on June 4, 2011

[Note: The answer has been guessed, and is confirmed in comment #27.]

I've played in the majors for multiple years with multiple teams.

I have good batting numbers. Pro-rated to 650 PAs (which is less than my total), I've averaged 93 RBI, 91 Runs, 29 HRs, 7 triples, 39 doubles, 78 walks, and over 6 WAR (including a strong defensive WAR rating).

To put that 6 WAR rating into perspective, the 2010 NL MVP had 5.9 WAR; just 9 MLB position players had 6+ WAR last year.

I currently play for my home-town team, but while growing up, I just couldn't root for them.

I have played in the postseason.

Posted in Uncategorized | 41 Comments »

Random Recap for Friday, June 3

Posted by John Autin on June 4, 2011

Arizona 4, Washington 0: It's Joshua Collmenter's world; we just get to read his box scores. Collmenter stymied the Nats on 3 hits over 7 IP tonight, his 3rd scoreless start of 6+ IP in 5 games since joining Arizona's rotation May 14. All other D-backs pitchers combined have 4 such starts all year. The native of Homer, MI has a 1.23 ERA as a SP, 1.25 overall.

  • Collmenter wasn't perfect, though; he issued a walk, raising his season rate to 0.83 BB/9 (4 walks in 43.1 IP).

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Posted in Uncategorized | 29 Comments »

12+ Games @ 1B, 2B, 3B & SS In The Same Season

Posted by Steve Lombardi on June 3, 2011

How many players have played at least 12 games at 1B, 2B, 3B and SS in the same season?

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Posted in Season Finders | 13 Comments »

Traffic Jam on the Interstate: 13 Batters Hitting Below .200

Posted by John Autin on June 3, 2011

Through games of June 2, thirteen batters are still hitting under .200 with at least 100 ABs, shown here in ascending order of BA (bold) along with their BAbip (unintentionally highlighted):

Rk Player BAbip BA AB Tm G PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO HBP SH SF GDP SB CS OBP SLG OPS Pos
1 Michael Saunders .231 .168 137 SEA 45 152 14 23 5 0 2 7 10 45 0 4 1 1 4 2 .223 .248 .471 *87
2 Jorge Posada .181 .169 136 NYY 42 158 13 23 5 0 6 16 21 36 1 0 0 4 0 1 .285 .338 .623 *D/3
3 Adam LaRoche .205 .172 151 WSN 43 177 15 26 4 0 3 15 25 37 0 0 1 2 1 0 .288 .258 .546 *3
4 Reid Brignac .235 .173 110 TBR 39 116 10 19 1 0 0 6 4 29 1 1 0 1 0 0 .209 .182 .391 *6
5 Dan Uggla .186 .175 212 ATL 57 232 20 37 7 1 7 16 18 45 1 0 1 3 1 2 .241 .316 .557 *4
6 Adam Dunn .265 .180 172 CHW 50 213 17 31 10 0 5 23 36 71 3 0 2 3 0 1 .329 .326 .654 *D/3
7 Vernon Wells .200 .183 142 LAA 35 152 18 26 3 1 4 13 7 30 1 0 2 1 1 1 .224 .303 .527 *7/89
8 Mark Reynolds .229 .190 179 BAL 53 211 24 34 11 0 7 24 28 56 2 0 2 5 3 0 .303 .369 .672 *5/3
9 John McDonald .202 .190 105 TOR 36 118 13 20 3 1 2 11 8 15 1 3 1 1 1 2 .252 .295 .547 45/6
10 Jonny Gomes .222 .191 141 CIN 46 172 23 27 7 0 7 20 25 47 3 0 3 0 5 2 .320 .390 .710 *7/D
11 Chone Figgins .215 .191 199 SEA 49 213 18 38 8 1 1 13 11 27 0 2 1 3 7 5 .232 .256 .489 *5
12 Jorge Cantu .210 .195 123 SDP 49 133 8 24 3 0 3 16 6 23 1 0 3 4 0 0 .233 .293 .526 3/54
13 Ryan Raburn .276 .197 157 DET 45 170 18 31 8 0 4 15 8 57 1 2 2 0 1 0 .238 .325 .563 *7/49D3
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 6/3/2011.

(All records mentioned below are since 1901, unless stated otherwise.)

  • There are currently 5 qualifying batters hitting under .200 (LaRoche, Uggla, Dunn, Reynolds and Figgins). That would equal the season record, last done in 1917. The live-ball record is 2, in 2010 and 1940.
  • Mark Reynolds is on track to become the first hitter since 1909 with more than 1 sub-.200 qualifying season.
  • The lowest BA by a qualifying 1B is .196 by Carlos Pena in 2010. Adam LaRoche is hitting .172 this year.
  • The lowest BA by a qualifying 2B is .179 by Mickey Doolan in 1918. Dan Uggla is hitting .175.
  • The lowest BA by a qualifying DH is .205 by Darrell Evans in 1988. Adam Dunn is hitting .180.
  • The lowest BA by a qualifying 3B in the live-ball era is .185 by Eddie Joost in 1943. Mark Reynolds is at .190 and Chone Figgins .191, I guess that record is safe unless one of them hits a real skid.
  • The lowest BA by a qualifying OF is .179 by Rob Deer in 1991. The current .192 mark of Jonny Gomes (despite a 4-hit game last week) would be the 2nd worst, but he's fallen just off the qualifying pace.
  • The lowest BA by a qualifying C is ... oh, never mind; Bill Bergen will never be equaled!

Posted in Uncategorized | 23 Comments »

Bloops: The Shortest Possible Baseball Road Trip

Posted by Neil Paine on June 3, 2011

Ben Blatt of the Harvard College Sports Analysis Collective used linear programming to plan the optimal road trip to all 30 MLB stadiums.

Posted in Bloops | 5 Comments »