In one of Steve's posts, a short discussion started on whether power-hitters are getting fewer doubles these days than they used to.

I just put together a few bits of data to look at that. Read the rest of this entry »

Now we've got ourselves a real game here, even if the World Series itself looks pretty lopsided.

Jumping in:

• Josh Fogg's awful game score of 14 wasn't predicted by anybody. The average guess was a much healthier 50. Closest was Dre17 with 32, which helped him a lot in the standings.
• Colorado actually scored 5 runs, and the average guess was 4.8: not too shabby. Three players, wellspr, doug730, and ToddCoffeysUsernameIsTooLong got it right.
• Colorado LOB was actually 11, with the average guess at 8. kingturtle got it exactly right. If memory serves, I think Oliver has exactly nailed at least one prediction in every game so far.
• Colorado Home Run Guess: hey we finally have a winner. Several people guessed Holliday.
• Matsuzaka's game score was 56, and the average guess was 51 Nobody got it exactly right, but ImAShark guessed 57 and several others were very close.
• Boston scored 10 runs, far eclipsing the average guess of 4.9. Closest, with 8, was Dre17, which also contributed significantly to his score.
• Boston LOB = 7, average guess = 8.7. Three players, Dre17, truman, and doug730 got it exactly right. (Are you starting to see a trend with Dre17 yet?)
• Boston Home Run Guess: once again no homers for Boston. It's amazing that they've scored, what, 25 runs and hit only 1 homer?

So, for this game, the average score was 110.

The top 5 finishers for Game 3 were:

1. Dre17 - 28 points
2. doug730 - 31
3. spartanbill - 56
4. zimcity - 61
5. budcrew08 - 92
That's 2 wins for Dre17 in 3 games--very impressive. So, Doug, you should have done a slightly better job in copying Dre17...heh. Both the top 2 finishers got the smallest scores we've seen so far, edging out wellspr's 38 from Game 2.

Without further delay, here are the overall leaders for Games 1, 2, and 3 of the 2007 World Series Challenge:

1. Dre17 - 210
2. doug730 - 240
3. zimcity - 257
4. larryhisle - 278
5. spartanbill - 311

As it turns out, the 6th place person has 360 points, so anybody not in the top 5 has a fairly poor shot at winning the whole enchilada.

Winning this thing is going to come down to picking the winning pitchers correctly, and in tomorrow's matchup of Aaron Cook and Jon Lester, that's a very tough thing to do.

By the way, looking at what my own ballots would have been had I entered, I would (really) have been in last place at this point!

Thanks everybody for participating. Perhaps there is just one game to go! The Game 4 post is already up, so just make your way back there to post your guesses for tonight's game.

Earlier tonight, Dice-K got his first MLB hit - an RBI single against the Rockies.  We shoulda seen it coming.  History has shown that Asian imports and highly touted pitchers get the most RBIs against the Rockies, and the Red Sox rookie is both.

Please note Josh Beckett is on that list as well.

Kingturtle posted a suggestion about quantifying whether players truly hit better when playing the field instead of DHing. See his comment here.

I looked into this a little. Click through for the details.

Read the rest of this entry »

Hey--here's a post that has nothing to do with the post-season. I just wanted to see how many pitchers in history have at least 100 wins and 100 saves in their career. It's a Who's Who of pitchers that spent time as both a starter and a closer:

  Cnt Player            Year  W   SV From  To   Ages   G   GS  CG SHO  GF  L   W-L%   IP     H    R   ER   BB   SO    ERA  ERA+  HR   BF  IBB HBP  BK  WP Teams
+----+-----------------+----+---+---+----+----+-----+----+---+---+---+---+---+-----+------+----+----+----+----+----+------+----+---+-----+---+---+---+---+-----------+
    1 Tom Gordon        2007 133 156 1988 2007 20-39  853 203  18   4 339 121  .524 2076.2 1855  993  906  957 1902   3.93  114 173  8909  56  38   5 106 KCR-BOS-CHC-TOT-CHW-NYY-PHI 
    2 John Smoltz       2007 207 154 1988 2007 21-40  702 461  53  16 204 145  .588 3367   2954 1328 1221  984 2975   3.26  127 275 13810  81  54  16 143 ATL         
    3 Dennis Eckersley  1998 197 390 1975 1998 20-43 1071 361 100  20 577 171  .535 3285.2 3076 1382 1278  738 2401   3.50  116 347 13534  91  75  16  28 CLE-BOS-TOT-CHC-OAK-STL 
    4 Rich Gossage      1994 124 310 1972 1994 20-42 1002  37  16   0 681 107  .537 1809.1 1497  670  605  732 1502   3.01  126 119  7506  90  47   5  63 CHW-PIT-NYY-SDP-CHC-TOT-TEX-OAK-SEA 
    5 Bob Stanley       1989 115 132 1977 1989 22-34  637  85  21   7 376  97  .542 1707   1858  797  690  471  693   3.64  118 113  7238  87  41   2  22 BOS         
    6 Rollie Fingers    1985 114 341 1968 1985 21-38  944  37   4   2 709 118  .491 1701.1 1474  615  549  492 1299   2.90  119 123  6942 109  39   7  40 OAK-SDP-MIL 
    7 Ron Reed          1984 146 103 1966 1984 23-41  751 236  55   8 300 140  .510 2477.2 2374 1084  953  633 1481   3.46  108 182 10305 124  50   1  72 ATL-TOT-PHI-CHW 
    8 Dave Giusti       1977 100 145 1962 1977 22-37  668 133  35   9 380  93  .518 1716.2 1654  764  687  570 1103   3.60   95 126  7251 109  15   7  87 HOU-STL-PIT-TOT 
    9 Lindy McDaniel    1975 141 172 1955 1975 19-39  987  74  18   2 577 119  .542 2139.1 2099  934  821  623 1361   3.45  109 172  8971 136  15   5 112 STL-CHC-SFG-TOT-NYY-KCR 
   10 Hoyt Wilhelm      1972 143 227 1952 1972 29-49 1070  52  20   5 651 122  .540 2254.1 1757  773  632  778 1610   2.52  146 150  9164  61  62   4  90 NYG-TOT-BAL-CHW-LAD 
   11 Ron Kline         1970 114 108 1952 1970 20-38  736 203  44   8 338 144  .442 2078   2113  991  866  731  989   3.75  101 218  8868 118  33   7  59 PIT-STL-TOT-DET-WSA-MIN-PIT-TOT-ATL 
   12 Roy Face          1969 104 193 1953 1969 25-41  848  27   6   0 574  95  .523 1375   1347  591  531  362  877   3.48  109 141  5691 106  14   2  32 PIT-TOT-MON 
   13 Stu Miller        1968 105 154 1952 1968 24-40  704  93  24   5 405 103  .505 1694   1522  697  610  600 1164   3.24  115 140  7083 114  39   3  25 STL-TOT-NYG-SFG-BAL-ATL 
   14 Ellis Kinder      1957 102 102 1946 1957 31-42  484 122  56  10 255  71  .590 1479.2 1421  627  564  539  749   3.43  124 118  6306   8   9   2  11 SLB-BOS-TOT-CHW 
   15 Firpo Marberry    1936 148 101 1923 1936 24-37  551 187  86   7 271  88  .627 2067.1 2049  971  834  686  822   3.63  116  96  8769      38   4  14 WSH-DET-TOT 

A few of these names surprised me, but most make sense.

Does anybody know how Saves are recorded for the old-time pitchers? Since it didn't exist as a stat, did folks go back and simply apply the Save rules to old boxscores and award Saves wherever they qualified?

How many pitchers, in baseball history, have thrown 10 or more games in the post-season where they've gone 6+ innings and allowed 1 earned run or less in each game?  Thanks to Baseball-Reference.com's Play Index Pitching Game Finder for the post-season, we know the answer: 

                   Games Link to Individual Games 
 +-----------------+-----+-------------------------+   

  Tom Glavine          16 Ind. Games 
  Andy Pettitte        12 Ind. Games 
  John Smoltz          11 Ind. Games     
  Curt Schilling       11 Ind. Games 
  Roger Clemens        10 Ind. Games

That's it - just these 5 hurlers.  With another good post-season or two, Andy Pettitte might pass Tom Glavine on this list for the top spot.  Would that give Pettitte a claim towards the title of "Greatest Post-Season Pitching Career"?  It's an interesting debate.

Then again, how many people would be willing to say that about Tom Glavine now?

Game 4 is Sunday night at 8pm ET so be sure to place your ballots by then.

For the full explanation on how this challenge is scored, see the Game 1 post.

GAME 4: SUNDAY

Well, well, well. As of now, the matchup for Sunday's game is Aaron Cook, who hasn't appeared in game since August, versus Jon Lester, who made only 15 starts this year himself. Keep in mind that if the starters are changed, your guesses still apply to whomever starts.

C(game score): Aaron Cook Game Score
C(runs scored): Colorado Runs Scored
C(batting LOB): Colorado Batting Team Runners Left on Base
C(HR guess): Colorado Home Run Guess (one batter)

B(game score): Jon Lester Game Score
B(runs scored): Boston Runs Scored
B(batting LOB): Boston Batting Team Runners Left on Base
B(HR guess): Boston Home Run Guess (one batter)

Game WP: Winning Pitcher
Game LP: Losing Pitcher

Here is your ballot. Cut and paste it below with your answers.

C(game score): ?
C(runs scored): ?
C(batting LOB): ?
C(HR guess): ?
B(game score): ?
B(runs scored): ?
B(batting LOB): ?
B(HR guess): ?

Game WP: ?
Game LP: ?

You must have a comment in this post timestamped before the first pitch on Sunday night in order to have your ballot count. Please note that I am not going to allow changes, so once you post your ballot, that’s it.

During Game 1 of the World Series, FOX showed a piece of trivia during one of Todd Helton's at-bats: He's one of only three players to have two seasons with at least 100 extra base hits. Those seasons were in 2000 and 2001.

Of course, when I see a fact like that, I have to know who the other two guys are. My buddy Brian and I came up with a list of candidates: Lou Gehrig, Babe Ruth, Albert Belle, Barry Bonds, ARod, Stan Musial, Hack Wilson, and Albert Pujols. Turns out we nailed one name and also came up with two that just missed by a single extra base hit. Yep, both Albert Belle and Babe Ruth had one season with at least 100 XBH and one with exactly 99. (Actually, Ruth had two seasons with 99 XBH and one with 97. Yikes.)

Think about 100 XBH for a minute. Even if you hit 50 homeruns, you also have to tack on 50 doubles. There have been fluke seasons like that, but to do it twice? Crazy. Mark McGwire "only" had 91 XBHs in his 70-homerun 1998.

Here are the players with 100 XBHs in one season:

Player    **XB**
Babe Ruth     119
Lou Gehrig    117
Barry Bonds   107
Chuck Klein   107
Todd Helton   105
Sammy Sosa    103
Todd Helton   103
Albert Belle  103
Stan Musial   103
Hank Greenbe  103
Chuck Klein   103
Rogers Horns  102
Luis Gonzalez 100
Jimmie Foxx   100
Lou Gehrig    100

So, yes, Lou Gehrig and Chuck Klein are the other two players with multi 100 XBH seasons in addition to Todd Helton. Look how far ahead of the pack the top two guys on the list are. Wow.

Here's every player with multi 90+ XBH seasons:

Player	       Num
Babe Ruth	6
Lou Gehrig	5
Hank Greenberg	4
Stan Musial	3
Rogers Hornsby	3
Jimmie Foxx	3
Chuck Klein	3
Todd Helton	2
Albert Belle	2
Ken Griffey	2
Joe Medwick	2
Albert Pujols	2

Keep in mind that many of the players at the top of the list didn't have 162-game seasons.

And, finally, players with five or more 80+ XBH seasons:

Player	       Num
Lou Gehrig     10
Babe Ruth	9
Stan Musial	6
Hank Greenberg	6
Alex Rodriguez	6
Willie Mays	5
Albert Pujols	5
Vladimir Guerre	5
Ted Williams	5
Rogers Hornsby	5
Jimmie Foxx	5

Three of today's stars are featured prominently on this list: Albert Pujols, Alex Rodriguez, and Vlad Guerrero. Remember that Pujols has only been in the league for seven seasons (and he also had a 79 XBH year in 2005.)

Game 3 is Saturday night at 8pm ET so be sure to place your ballots by then. I'll be putting up the Game 4 ballot as well, later today, since it's on Sunday.

For the full explanation on how this challenge is scored, see the Game 1 post.

GAME 3: SATURDAY

Well, Game 3 represents a good chance for the Rockies to get back in it. Which Matsuzaka will show up? For that matter, which Josh Fogg will show up? Will the altitude hurt Boston?

C(game score): Josh Fogg Game Score
C(runs scored): Colorado Runs Scored
C(batting LOB): Colorado Batting Team Runners Left on Base
C(HR guess): Colorado Home Run Guess (one batter)

B(game score): Daisuke Matsuzaka Game Score
B(runs scored): Boston Runs Scored
B(batting LOB): Boston Batting Team Runners Left on Base
B(HR guess): Boston Home Run Guess (one batter)

Game WP: Winning Pitcher
Game LP: Losing Pitcher

Here is your ballot. Cut and paste it below with your answers.

C(game score): ?
C(runs scored): ?
C(batting LOB): ?
C(HR guess): ?
B(game score): ?
B(runs scored): ?
B(batting LOB): ?
B(HR guess): ?

Game WP: ?
Game LP: ?

You must have a comment in this post timestamped before the first pitch on Saturday night in order to have your ballot count. Please note that I am not going to allow changes, so once you post your ballot, that’s it.

Well, that game was just a bit more competitive and interesting...

Let's jump right in:

• The average score dropped from 139 for Game 1 to 104 for Game 2. As with Game 1, nobody got the Home Run Guess for either team correct, given that no homers were hit in Game 2!
• Jiminez got a game score of 47, and several people got very close, including kingturtle and doug730 who got it exactly. The average guess for all of you was 45--kudos!
• Schilling got a game score of 58, with truman coming closest at 56. In fact, truman missed both game scores (Schilling and Jiminez) by just 2 each, which is very impressive. The average Schilling game score guess was 53, also quite close.
• Colorado scored 1 run. Nobody got it exactly but larryhisle and budcrew08 were closest with 2. Average was 4.8.
• Boston scored 2 runs. Newcomer Yuri nailed it with nobody else closer than 2 runs off. Average guess was 6.1
• Colorado left 5 men on base (for the second game in a row) and wellspr got that right, with a few others very close. Average guess was 7.3.
• Boston left 12 men on base (also for the second game in a row) and RonBermuda was closest with 11. Average guess was 8.4.
• For the winning and losing pitchers, many folks got Schilling as the winner and Jiminez as the loser. Again, those who did worst for Game 2 missed the pitchers of record. (In retrospect, I made this worth too many points.)

So here are the top 5 finishers for Game 2:

1. wellspr- 38
2. budcrew08 - 69
3. larryhisle - 74
4. Yuri - 82
5. truman - 85

A couple of new folks, Yuri and budcrew08, made the Game 2 leaderboard but they are not eligible for the overall championship since they didn't participate in Game 1.

With that in mind, here is the overall leaderboard for Games 1 and 2:

1. larryhisle - 167
2. Dre17 - 182
3. zimcity- 196
4. doug730- 209
5. truman - 218

Those of you not appearing on this leaderboard should not be discouraged. The person in 10th place right now is only about 100 points behind first place, which is by no means insurmountable. I'm not listing it just because I don't want to embarrass anybody, but basically everybody still has a chance. (By the way, had I filled out ballots myself, I would be close to last place...)

Thanks for playing, and please look for the Game 3 entry form later today. I've got to go do some real work for a bit.