One-Run Games Records since 1901

The Atlanta Braves currently have the worst one-run game records of the last 108 years, 4-21.

Melky Cabrera's OPS+ on this season, to date, is 78. Seeing this, I wondered how many other 23-year old switch-hitting outfielders have posted a season with at least 300 PA where they had an OPS+ of 80 or less. Thanks to Baseball-Reference.com's Play Index Batting Season Finder, here's the answer:

  Cnt                       OPS+  PA Year Age
+----+-----------------+---+----+---+----+---+
    1 Jerry White             76 309 1976  23
    2 Joe Lovitto             70 313 1974  23
    3 Paul Householder        64 455 1982  23
    4 Milt Cuyler             65 313 1992  23
    5 Coco Crisp              76 447 2003  23
    6 John Cangelosi          76 525 1986  23
    7 Melky Cabrera           78 328 2008  23
    8 Carlos Beltran          69 413 2000  23

Seasons/Careers found: 8.

Obviously, Carlos Beltran went on to bigger and better seasons. But, on the whole, this is not a very impressive group of offensive players. Seeing Coco Crisp there is interesting - as I thought, seven months ago, that he and Melky were close...in terms of their career offensive achievements.

Seeing the way that Coco Crisp went on to hit, from ages 24 to 28, maybe it's time for the Yankees to reconsider the somewhat long-term value of playing Melky Cabrera everyday?

Last night, the Rockies became the third team since 1956 to win a game in which they allowed 17 or more runs:

  Cnt Date          Tm   Opp GmReslt  IP   H  R ER BB SO HR Pit Str IR IS  BF  AB 2B 3B IBB HBP SH SF GDP SB CS Pk Ptchrs   ERA
+----+-------------+---+----+-------+----+--+--+--+--+--+--+---+---+--+--+---+---+--+--+---+---+--+--+---+--+--+--+------+------+
    1 2008-07-04    COL  FLA W 18-17  9   22 17 17  6  4  2 189 117  5  3  56  47  7  0   1   2  1  0   1  0  0  1      6  17.00 

    2 1979-05-17    PHI  CHC W 23-22 10   26 22 19  3  4  6          2  1  59  56  3  1   0   0  0  0   2  0  0  0      5  17.10 

    3 1969-08-03    CIN  PHI W 19-17  9   21 17 17  4  6  3  97  65  6  5  51  47  4  1   1   0  0  0   2  1  0  0      5  17.00 

It's the first such game (since 1956) not involving the Phillies.

Last night John Lester threw a gem against the Yankees. His 5 hit shutout was all the more significant given his age, the opponent, and the location of the game. Since 1956 there have been 73 games started by young (24 or younger) Red Sox pitchers against the Yankees in NY. Lester's game score of 83 ranks second only to a 3 hitter thrown by Dave Morehead in 1965.

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THT Live has a link this Baseball Toaster post.

"I noticed where Mo lost his third game of the year despite putting together an ERA less than 1.00. How unusual is that combination? Well, here is a list of all the pitchers who have lost more than one game while posting an ERA under 1.00."

LOSSES                        YEAR      L       ERA    
1    Tim Keefe                1880        6     0.86   
2    Ferdie Schupp            1916        3     0.90   
T3   Chris Hammond            2002        2     0.95   
T3   Jonathan Papelbon        2006        2     0.92   
T3   Dennis Eckersley         1990        2     0.61

I was curious about this data so I ran it through PI and came up with the following list.

  Cnt Player             **L**   ERA  Year Age Tm  Lg  G  GS CG SHO GF  W  W-L% SV   IP   H   R   ER  BB  SO ERA  HR  BF   AB  2B 3B IBB HBP  SH  SF GDP  SB CS Pk BK WP   BA   OBP   SLG   OPS  OPS   Pit  Str
 ----+-----------------+------+------+----+---+---+--+---+--+--+---+--+--+-----+--+-----+---+---+---+---+---+----+--+----+----+--+--+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+--+--+--+-----+-----+-----+-----+----+----+---- 
    1 Tim Keefe            6     0.86 1880  23 TRO NL  12 12 12   0  0  6  .500  0 105    71  27  10  17  43  294  0  397                                           0  1                            0           
    2 Dutch Leonard        5     0.96 1914  22 BOS AL  36 25 17   7  9 19  .792  3 224.2 139  34  24  60 176  279  3  846                  8                        0  2                            0           
    3 Mariano Rivera       3     0.96 2008  38 NYY AL  35  0  0   0 34  2  .400 22  37.1  20   4   4   3  42  417  2  133  129  4  0   0   0   0   1   1   3  0  0  0  0  .155  .173  .233  .406    9  520  362 
    4 Ferdie Schupp        3     0.90 1916  25 NYG NL  30 11  8   4 17  9  .750  1 140.1  79  22  14  37  86  271  1  525                  5                        0  2                            0           
    5 Jonathan Papelbon    2     0.92 2006  25 BOS AL  59  0  0   0 49  4  .667 35  68.1  40   8   7  13  75  515  3  257  240 10  1   2   1   1   2   1   4  1  0  0  2  .167  .211  .254  .465   18 1023  709 
    6 Chris Hammond        2     0.95 2002  36 ATL NL  63  0  0   0  6  7  .778  0  76    53  15   8  31  63  439  1  311  272 11  2   9   1   5   2   7   2  1  0  0  1  .195  .278  .261  .539   45 1125  701 
    7 Dennis Eckersley     2     0.61 1990  35 OAK AL  63  0  0   0 61  4  .667 48  73.1  41   9   5   4  73  606  2  262  257  9  1   1   0   0   1   3   1  2  0  0  0  .160  .172  .226  .398   13           
    8 Rich Gossage         2     0.77 1981  29 NYY AL  32  0  0   0 30  3  .600 20  46.2  22   6   4  14  48  461  2  173  156  1  1   1   1   1   1   5   5  1  1  0  1  .141  .215  .199  .414   21           
    9 Hank Aguirre         2     0.69 1968  37 LAD NL  25  0  0   0 16  1  .333  3  39.1  32   8   3  13  25  400  0  167  141  1  0   3   3   6   4   2   1  1  0  0  4  .227  .298  .234  .532   68           
   10 Bill Henry           2     0.87 1964  36 CIN NL  37  0  0   0 20  2  .500  6  52    31   9   5  12  28  417  2  202  182  6  0   4   3   3   2   3   3  0  0  0  1  .170  .231  .236  .467   35           
   11 Bill Harris          2     0.87 1931  31 PIT NL   4  4  3   1  0  2  .500  0  31    21   6   3   9  10  444  0  121                  0                        0  0                            0           
   12 Jack Bentley         2     0.79 1915  20 WSH AL   4  2  0   0  2  0  .000  0  11.1   8   4   1   3   0  373  0   43                  0                        0  0                            0           
   13 Martin Glendon       2     0.98 1903  26 CLE AL   3  3  3   0  0  1  .333  0  27.2  20   9   3   7   9  291  0  112                  0                        0  0                            0           

Rivera is certainly working his way toward a unique season, but not as unique as the post suggests.

Last night, Dustin Pedroia smacked 2 doubles, a triple, and a homer but missed hitting for the cycle by a single. How rare is it? Well believe it or not, Pedroia is already the 3rd guy to do it this year:

  Cnt Player            Date          Tm   Opp GmReslt PA AB  R  H 2B 3B HR RBI BB IBB SO HBP SH SF ROE GDP SB CS BOr Positions
+----+-----------------+-------------+---+----+-------+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+---+--+---+--+---+--+--+---+---+--+--+---+---------+
    1 Dustin Pedroia    2008-07-02    BOS @TBR L  6-7   5  5  3  4  2  1  1   2  0   0  0   0  0  0   0   0  0  0 2nd 2B        
    2 Adrian Gonzalez   2008-04-22    SDP @HOU L  7-11  4  4  2  3  1  1  1   3  0   0  0   0  0  0   0   0  0  0 3rd 1B        
    3 Eric Hinske       2008-04-22    TBR  TOR W  6-4   4  4  3  3  1  1  1   2  0   0  1   0  0  0   0   0  0  0 6th 1B        

It happened 11 times in 2007 and 10 times in 2006. Prior to the offensive explosion in 1993, it happened roughly 5 times a year on average. See here for the full list.

Since 1956, the most times any one player has done it is 3:

                   Games Link to Individual Games
 -----------------+-----+------------------------- 
 Manny Trillo          3 Ind. Games                
 Frank Robinson        3 Ind. Games                
 Gregg Jefferies       3 Ind. Games                
 Brian Giles           3 Ind. Games                
 Ellis Burks           3 Ind. Games                
 Hank Aaron            3 Ind. Games                    

Actually that's a pretty good collection of players. Two HOFers and every other guy with at least two All-Star appearances.

On Monday night the Marlins used a late inning comeback to beat the Nationals, ending a trivial but remarkable run for Tim Redding.  While Redding did take his 8th consecutive no-decision in the game (the 6th longest such streak since 1956 -see the list for a possible explanation of a recent bizzare story), it was the first time in those 8 games that his team lost.  This streak of 7 consecutive starts easily broke the previous (post '56) record of 5 held by many other pitchers.

In fact Redding's run has put him into a very interesting position. Despite having only 6 wins, he is the current leader among pitchers for starting games in which his team has won in 2008.

Here are the leaders through July 1.

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They said it couldn't be done, but he's doing it. He's repeating the season he had last year, with a ridiculously low hit rate, a ridiculously high walk rate, but an excellent ERA.

Here are all the guys from the last 20 years with at least 30 IP in a season, including more than 6 walks per 9 innings and fewer than 7 hits per 9 innings:

                   From  To   Ages Seasons Link to Individual Seasons
+-----------------+----+----+-----+-------+------------------------------+
 J.C. Romero       2007 2008 31-32       2 Ind. Seasons                   
 Matt Mantei       1999 2000 25-26       2 Ind. Seasons                   
 Randy Johnson     1991 1992 27-28       2 Ind. Seasons                   
 Dennis Sarfate    2008 2008 27-27       1 Ind. Seasons                   
 Derrick Turnbow   2007 2007 29-29       1 Ind. Seasons                   
 George Sherrill   2006 2006 29-29       1 Ind. Seasons                   
 Brian Bruney      2004 2004 22-22       1 Ind. Seasons                   
 Kelly Wunsch      2003 2003 30-30       1 Ind. Seasons                   
 Luis Pineda       2002 2002 27-27       1 Ind. Seasons                   
 Jeff Nelson       2001 2001 34-34       1 Ind. Seasons                   
 Juan Moreno       2001 2001 26-26       1 Ind. Seasons                   
 Jeff Wallace      1999 1999 23-23       1 Ind. Seasons                   
 Armando Benitez   1995 1995 22-22       1 Ind. Seasons                   
 Pedro Martinez    1994 1994 25-25       1 Ind. Seasons                   
 Storm Davis       1994 1994 32-32       1 Ind. Seasons                   
 John Briscoe      1994 1994 26-26       1 Ind. Seasons                   
 Mark Acre         1994 1994 25-25       1 Ind. Seasons                   
 Jeff Schwarz      1993 1993 29-29       1 Ind. Seasons                   
 Mitch Williams    1991 1991 26-26       1 Ind. Seasons                   
 Bryan Harvey      1989 1989 26-26       1 Ind. Seasons     

The only guys to do it twice are Romero this year (so far) and last, Matt Mantei, and Randy Johnson before he became so nasty. Check out the ERA+ though. In Johnson's two years it was 103 and 105. In Mantei's it was 162 and 105. In Romero's, it's been 243 and (so far this year) 265. That kind of an ERA+ for a guy with such a high walk rate is ridiculous.

You asked for it and here it is.

So let me explain what this is. I did a Batting Game Finder search for all games with HR=1 as well as all games HR=2. That refers to individual player performances, not team totals. So, any one game could register 5, 6, 7 or more times if that many players hit 1 or 2 HR in the game. Total team performances, as well as any games where an individual hit 3 or more HR, are ignored. (Of course, 3+ HR games are extremely rare by comparison to 1 and 2 HR games.)

Then, for each year, I divided 1 HR games by 2 HR games. As you can see, in 1956 there were approximately 15 times as many 1 HR games as 2 HR games. Through about 1985, the ratio generally increased. It's very difficult to tell whether that was due to generally more 1 HR games, or generally fewer 2 HR games, since the HR totals overall vary from year to year.

I note that 1987 shows a local valley for ratio. In this year, balls were flying out and a lot of players who didn't often hit homers hit them out this year. Lots of guys had seasons with 10 or 20 homers who rarely hit more than 5 in a year. At those total rates, it's likely that most of the HR came one game at a time, and therefore the number of 1 HR games was likely up significantly while the number of 2 HR games was probably up just a bit.

And then what do we see in 1993? This is undoubtedly the beginning of The Steroid Era, as much data and analysis has shown. We see not only did the ratio drop off, but the noise from year to year has been much smaller than for the 40 or so years prior. I think this is easily explainable: many more HRs have been hit, with lots of guys amassing 40+ in a year. With these totals, the likelihood of 2 HR games is much higher than with just 10 or 20 HRs in a season, and therefore more 2 HR games are happening, dropping the ratio a bit. (Mind you, 1 HR games are still about 15 times more common.) The other reason for the drop in year-to-year noise is because more HRs are being hit. We have more events spread over the same 162-game schedule, so things tend to even out. For those not statistically inclined, just think of the opposite--counting a really rare event, such as a no-hitter. Some years there are none, and some years there are 5. The year-to-year noise is huge. But for much more common events, the rates tend to even out and be more regular from year to year.

So there you have it.

Tonight, Brett Gardner made his major league debut leading off for the Yankees.  I was a bit surprised because I thought that leadoff type players  usually start off their careers in the "double leadoff" spot. I did a PI search for all players making their debut batting leadoff in games with a DH. Here are the results. (There is one player (not in the link) who made his debut hitting leadoff in an interleague game with a DH. Bonus points if you knew that it was Mike Colangelo. )

60 previous times since 1973, including 5 in 2002. (Some teams, such as the '95 Royals and the '94 Mariners tried it twice.) However, Gardner is the first since 2002.