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Bloops: The Uncertainty of Run Estimators

Posted by Neil Paine on September 4, 2009

From Hardball Times, it's the always-informative Colin Wyers with a couple of articles presenting a method of putting error bars on a player's "runs created"-type metric. One major complaint about sabermetrics has been the almost false sense of accuracy it projects in estimators of player value -- some people calculate Runs Created out to a tenth of a run, for instance, as though there's some sort of scientific significance there -- so it's always interesting to look at just how much noise there really is in these player value metrics.

Posted in Bloops | Comments Off on Bloops: The Uncertainty of Run Estimators

Shutouts in 2009

Posted by Andy on September 4, 2009

Wow, am I the last person to realize that the Giants have already thrown 18 (EIGHTEEN!!!) shutouts this year?

 Tm  Year Games Link to Individual Games
+---+----+-----+-------------------------+
 SFG 2009    18 Ind. Games                
 ARI 2009    12 Ind. Games                
 CIN 2009    11 Ind. Games                
 TEX 2009    10 Ind. Games                
 NYM 2009    10 Ind. Games                
 STL 2009     9 Ind. Games                
 LAA 2009     9 Ind. Games                
 DET 2009     9 Ind. Games                
 SEA 2009     8 Ind. Games                
 LAD 2009     8 Ind. Games                
 HOU 2009     8 Ind. Games                
 CHW 2009     8 Ind. Games                
 BOS 2009     8 Ind. Games                

Just to give you an idea of how impressive this is, here are the single-season team leaders in shutouts over the last 10 full seasons (1999-2008) plus 2009 so far:

 Tm  Year Games Link to Individual Games
+---+----+-----+-------------------------+
 SDP 2007    20 Ind. Games                
 OAK 2002    19 Ind. Games                
 SFG 2009    18 Ind. Games                
 LAD 2003    17 Ind. Games                
 BOS 2002    17 Ind. Games                
 DET 2006    16 Ind. Games                
 BOS 2008    16 Ind. Games                
 SFG 2000    15 Ind. Games                
 SEA 2003    15 Ind. Games                
 LAD 2002    15 Ind. Games                
 FLA 2005    15 Ind. Games                
 ATL 2002    15 Ind. Games                

This year's Giants already have the 3rd-most shutouts on this list and have a decent shot to break the record just by keeping pace.

Posted in Game Finders | 4 Comments »

Up Three Rivers Without A Paddle?

Posted by Steve Lombardi on September 4, 2009

To date, 19 times this season a Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher has gone 6+ IP, allowing 3 ER or less, and was charged with a loss this season. Via Baseball-Reference.com Play Index Pitching Game Finder, here's how all big league teams have done in this slice, so far, this year:

 Tm  Year Games Link to Individual Games
+---+----+-----+-------------------------+
 PIT 2009    19 Ind. Games
 ARI 2009    17 Ind. Games
 KCR 2009    15 Ind. Games
 CHC 2009    15 Ind. Games
 ATL 2009    15 Ind. Games
 SDP 2009    14 Ind. Games
 CLE 2009    14 Ind. Games
 STL 2009    13 Ind. Games
 BAL 2009    13 Ind. Games
 OAK 2009    12 Ind. Games
 NYM 2009    12 Ind. Games
 COL 2009    12 Ind. Games
 TOR 2009    11 Ind. Games
 CIN 2009    11 Ind. Games
 WSN 2009    10 Ind. Games
 PHI 2009    10 Ind. Games
 FLA 2009    10 Ind. Games
 TBR 2009     9 Ind. Games
 MIL 2009     9 Ind. Games
 LAD 2009     9 Ind. Games
 TEX 2009     8 Ind. Games
 MIN 2009     8 Ind. Games
 DET 2009     8 Ind. Games
 CHW 2009     8 Ind. Games
 SFG 2009     7 Ind. Games
 SEA 2009     7 Ind. Games
 LAA 2009     7 Ind. Games
 HOU 2009     7 Ind. Games
 BOS 2009     6 Ind. Games
 NYY 2009     5 Ind. Games

Posted in Game Finders | 3 Comments »

Most plate appearances in a season with 200 OPS+

Posted by Andy on September 4, 2009

It's very rare that a player achieves a 200 OPS+ in a season, at least among full-time players.

Here are the most plate appearances in a season when a player achieved at least a 200 OPS+:

  Cnt Player             **PA** OPS+ Year Age Tm  Lg  G   AB  R   H  2B 3B HR RBI  BB IBB  SO HBP  SH  SF GDP  SB CS   BA   OBP   SLG   OPS  Positions
+----+-----------------+-------+----+----+---+---+--+---+---+---+---+--+--+--+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+-----+-----+-----+-----+---------+
    1 Lou Gehrig          717    221 1927  24 NYY AL 155 584 149 218 52 18 47 175 109   0  84   3  21   0   0  10  8  .373  .474  .765 1.239 *3
    2 Sammy Sosa          711    203 2001  32 CHC NL 160 577 146 189 34  5 64 160 116  37 153   6   0  12   6   0  2  .328  .437  .737 1.174 *9
    3 Rogers Hornsby      704    207 1922  26 STL NL 154 623 141 250 46 14 42 152  65   0  50   1  15   0   0  17 12  .401  .459  .722 1.181 *4
    4 Lou Gehrig          703    203 1930  27 NYY AL 154 581 143 220 42 17 41 174 101   0  63   3  18   0   0  12 14  .379  .473  .721 1.194 *3/7
    5 Jimmie Foxx         701    205 1932  24 PHA AL 154 585 151 213 33  9 58 169 116   0  96   0   0   0   0   3  7  .364  .469  .749 1.218 *35
    6 Babe Ruth           699    239 1923  28 NYY AL 152 522 151 205 45 13 41 131 170   0  93   4   3   0   0  17 21  .393  .545  .764 1.309 97/83
    7 Stan Musial         694    200 1948  27 STL NL 155 611 135 230 46 18 39 131  79   0  34   3   1   0  18   7  0  .376  .450  .702 1.152 987/3
    8 Ted Williams        693    205 1947  28 BOS AL 156 528 125 181 40  9 32 114 162   0  47   2   1   0  10   0  1  .343  .499  .634 1.133 *7
    9 Babe Ruth           693    239 1921  26 NYY AL 152 540 177 204 44 16 59 171 145   0  81   4   4   0   0  17 13  .378  .512  .846 1.358 *78/13
   10 Babe Ruth           691    226 1927  32 NYY AL 151 540 158 192 29  8 60 164 137   0  89   0  14   0   0   7  6  .356  .486  .772 1.258 *97
   11 Lou Gehrig          690    208 1934  31 NYY AL 154 579 128 210 40  6 49 165 109   0  31   2   0   0   0   9  5  .363  .465  .706 1.171 *3/6
   12 Babe Ruth           684    208 1928  33 NYY AL 154 536 163 173 29  8 54 142 137   0  87   3   8   0   0   4  5  .323  .463  .709 1.172 *97
   13 Mark McGwire        681    216 1998  34 STL NL 155 509 130 152 21  0 70 147 162  28 155   6   0   4   8   1  0  .299  .470  .752 1.222 *3
   14 Babe Ruth           681    220 1924  29 NYY AL 153 529 143 200 39  7 46 121 142   0  81   4   6   0   0   9 13  .378  .513  .739 1.252 *97/8
   15 Babe Ruth           676    211 1930  35 NYY AL 145 518 150 186 28  9 49 153 136   0  61   1  21   0   0  10 10  .359  .493  .732 1.225 *97/1
   16 Barry Bonds         674    204 1993  28 SFG NL 159 539 129 181 38  4 46 123 126  43  79   2   0   7  11  29 12  .336  .458  .677 1.135 *7
   17 Norm Cash           672    201 1961  26 DET AL 159 535 119 193 22  8 41 132 124  19  85   9   2   2  16  11  5  .361  .487  .662 1.149 *3
   18 Ted Williams        672    215 1946  27 BOS AL 150 514 142 176 37  8 38 123 156   0  44   2   0   0  12   0  0  .342  .497  .667 1.164 *7
   19 Ted Williams        671    217 1942  23 BOS AL 150 522 141 186 34  5 36 137 145   0  51   4   0   0  12   3  2  .356  .499  .648 1.147 *7
   20 Jimmie Foxx         670    200 1933  25 PHA AL 149 573 125 204 37  9 48 163  96   0  93   1   0   0   0   2  2  .356  .449  .703 1.152 *3/6

Well this certainly separates the men from the boys, doesn't it? The only recent seasons here are Sosa in 2001, McGwire in 1998, and Bonds in (surprise!) 1993. The reason for this is straightforward--there is so much more offense these days that it's very difficult for a guy--even a guy with 50 homers--to achieve a 200 OPS+. Babe Ruth was an exceptional power hitter, even looking at his HR totals in a vacuum. However, especially when comparing his HR numbers to those of his contemporaries, it becomes clear why he dominates this list.

The full list is here and you can see that there have been 48 seasons where a guy with a 200 OPS+ had at least 500 plate appearances.

Keep in mind that this is somewhat arbitrary. There are guys to have achieved OPS+ numbers of 195 to 199 that are pretty much just as impressive. (See Jason Giambi in 2001 and Frank Robinson in 1966, as well as Jim Thome in 2002.)

In Babe Ruth's 15 seasons with at least 100 games played, he had an OPS+ of at least 200 in 11 times. And his career figure is, ahem, 207. Say what you want about Hank Aaron or Albert Pujols: Babe Ruth is the greatest baseball player of all time.

Posted in Season Finders | 10 Comments »

Never Struck Twice

Posted by Raphy on September 4, 2009

Yesterday afternoon my interest was piqued by a blog post about pitching streaks without allowing two homers in the same game.  And so, I prepared this beautiful post  about how Chad Bradford and Jason Frasor were among the career leaders in games pitched without allowing 2 home runs in the same game. Talk about a jinx. Last night  Frasor gave up 2 home runs in  the one  game.  It marked the first time that he had done so in his 331 game career. Unlike Frasor, some pitchers have been able to go their entire careers without giving up 2 bombs. Here are the  pitchers who  have pitched the most games since 1954 without ever allowing 2 home runs in the same game:

                    StreakStart  Streak End Games   W   L   GS  CG SHO  GF  SV   IP     H    R   ER   BB   SO   HR   ERA  HBP  WP  BK Teams
 +-----------------+-----------+-----------+-----+------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
Paul Assenmacher   1986-04-12  1999-10-03   884   61  44   1   0   0 275  56  855.2  817  371  335  315  807  73   3.52  22  31   5 ATL-CHC-NYY-CHW-CLE
Bob Locker         1965-04-14  1975-06-20   576   57  39   0   0   0 288  95  879    777  329  269  258  577  40   2.75  36  37   5 CHW-SEP-MIL-OAK-CHC
Chad Bradford      1998-08-01  2009-09-02   557   36  28   0   0   0 114  11  512.2  520  211  184  135  313  27   3.23  29   4   3 CHW-OAK-BOS-NYM-BAL-TBR     
Jim Mecir          1995-09-04  2005-09-28   474   29  35   0   0   0 126  12  527    482  240  221  225  450  41   3.77  23  19   1 SEA-NYY-TBD-OAK-FLA
Ramon Hernandez    1967-04-11  1977-07-27   337   23  15   0   0   0 184  46  430.1  399  158  145  135  255  23   3.03  14   7   5 ATL-CHC-PIT-BOS
Doug Sisk          1982-09-06  1991-05-23   332   22  20   0   0   0 161  33  523.1  527  238  190  267  195  15   3.27  20  15   3 NYM-BAL-ATL

The stats are through 9/2. Bradford added to his streak last night.

To find this information I used the pitching streak finder to find the players with the most games to start
a career with at most 1 hr. Then I checked the HR logs for all the top players and only kept the
ones who never gave up more than 1 homer in a game.

Posted in Uncategorized | 5 Comments »

’09 Yanks On Verge Of Setting 20/70 Mark?

Posted by Steve Lombardi on September 3, 2009

Today, Peter Abraham asked "I’d be curious to know the last team that had eight players hit at least 20 home runs and drive in at least 70 runs."

Well, thanks to Baseball-Reference.com's Play Index Batting Season Finder, the answer is simple to find: It's never been done before. (But, for the record, the 1996 O's had seven players with 20+ HR and 70+ RBI.)

So, if Derek Jeter and Jorge Posada can reach 20 HR and 70 RBI this season, that would give the 2009 Yankees eight players with these marks - and the team record for most players in one season with 20+ HR/70+ RBI.

Posted in Season Finders | 6 Comments »

Share all of our Stats

Posted by Sean Forman on September 3, 2009

Ever wanted to make a statistical point on a blog, to a friend via e-mail, on twitter or in an internet forum? The data you need appears on this site, but we've got twenty columns of additional data and then you would have to cut and paste, delete what you don't need and then maybe add some html or bbcode to get it to look just right? So only the really crazy statheads even bother. We've now made that process much, much (maybe one more much) easier.

Stats tables on Baseball-Reference.com now have the option to modify and easily share nearly all of the data found on the site. Clicking on the SHARE tooltip found above most stat tables (see image), now calls up a dialog box that allows you to delete columns and/or rows and then get the stat table to cut and paste in any of eight useful formats.

Read the rest of this entry »

Posted in Announcements, Power Users, Site Features, Tutorials, Uncategorized | 4 Comments »

Bloops: What Baseball is Like to Today’s 18-Year-Olds

Posted by Neil Paine on September 3, 2009

Want to feel old? Try reading the annual Beloit College Mindset List for incoming freshmen. Heck, I'm 23 and this year's version makes me feel old... Another question: Want to feel like an old baseball fan? Read Chris Jaffe's baseball version of the Beloit List over at the Hardball Times. It's what baseball feels like to the young whippersnappers out there (and my apologies if you are one of the aforementioned whippersnappers).

Posted in Bloops | 1 Comment »

Evan Longoria vs Red Sox

Posted by Andy on September 3, 2009

Check out Evan Longoria's splits by opponent this year:

Split G PA AB R H HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB
Inter-League 17 74 66 6 21 2 10 6 15 .318 .392 .515 .907 34
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim 6 26 20 5 5 1 3 5 3 .250 .423 .450 .873 9
Baltimore Orioles 10 45 43 7 14 4 10 2 11 .326 .356 .744 1.100 32
Boston Red Sox 14 67 58 17 21 8 26 6 15 .362 .418 .862 1.280 50
Chicago White Sox 7 29 24 3 4 1 2 3 6 .167 .276 .333 .609 8
Cleveland Indians 8 31 24 5 6 1 3 7 10 .250 .419 .375 .794 9
Colorado Rockies 3 14 12 2 4 2 2 1 4 .333 .429 .833 1.262 10
Detroit Tigers 4 17 17 4 5 1 3 0 3 .294 .294 .529 .824 9
Florida Marlins 6 28 25 2 8 0 5 2 4 .320 .393 .440 .833 11
Kansas City Royals 8 36 30 4 5 1 4 6 5 .167 .306 .267 .572 8
Minnesota Twins 6 25 23 5 8 1 8 2 4 .348 .400 .565 .965 13
New York Mets 3 13 11 1 4 0 1 2 2 .364 .462 .545 1.007 6
New York Yankees 10 36 32 7 8 4 9 3 13 .250 .333 .656 .990 21
Oakland Athletics 10 44 40 5 9 1 1 4 10 .225 .295 .375 .670 15
Philadelphia Phillies 2 7 7 0 2 0 0 0 1 .286 .286 .429 .714 3
Seattle Mariners 6 29 23 5 8 1 6 5 4 .348 .448 .609 1.057 14
Texas Rangers 6 25 22 2 3 0 1 1 2 .136 .200 .227 .427 5
Toronto Blue Jays 15 66 57 7 14 0 7 7 13 .246 .318 .316 .634 18
Washington Nationals 3 12 11 1 3 0 2 1 4 .273 .333 .364 .697 4
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 9/3/2009.



Granted he has played far more games against Boston than most other teams, but his numbers are staggering, with 8 HR and 26 RBI in just 58 at-bats.  He has a 1.280 OPS against. Compare those numbers with his performance against the other team he's faced a lot this year, Toronto. No homers and 7 RBI in 57 at-bats with a .634 OPS.

Anyway, currently this site (nor any other) doesn't have the capability to search in such a fashion, but can you think of other instances of a player having at least 8 HR or 26 RBI against a single opponent in any one season?

Posted in Splits | 10 Comments »

Feature Watch: Bio Section

Posted by Neil Paine on September 2, 2009

Frequently when you have to put a feature "out of sight" in order to save room on a page, it also becomes "out of mind" for users who no longer have an easy way to navigate to it. unfortunately, that's been the case with the Bio section of the site, which is tucked away under the "more [+]" drop-down menu and consequently gets overlooked all too often. Since we get a handful of requests per week about player birthplaces and places of death, I thought I'd shine the spotlight on the Bio page to help our users know about the tools it offers.

First, we break down every player by their place of birth. Using the links at the top of the page, you can sort the batting, pitching, and managing totals for every U.S. state (did you know that Pennsylvania boasts the most Hall of Fame pitchers in MLB history?), and for every country as well (for instance, Ireland has provided the most career games without producing an All-Star). You can also see more detailed breakdowns for each state, including a sortable list of every player born there and his career MLB stats (aside from Chad Santos -- career PA: 8 -- Benny Agbayani is Hawaii's all-time leader in career OPS with .807), and each foreign country/territory as well (Ed Porray's birthplace was apparently "A Ship on Atlantic Ocean," making him unique among major-leaguers). We also provide the same tools/breakdowns for each player's place of death, although this section is understandably less complete and/or accurate than the birthplace database. Meaning that if you ever wanted to know that Jackie Jensen hit more career HR than any other player who died in Virginia, this is the place to look.

So feel free to look around and experiment with the various states and territories, and I'm sure you'll dig up a piece of trivia in the process that will stump even the most hard-core of baseball historians.

Posted in Site Features | 5 Comments »