Comments on: POLL: Andy Pettitte & the Hall of Fame This and that about baseball stats. Tue, 16 Jul 2013 17:01:55 +0000 hourly 1 By: Jimbo Mon, 14 Feb 2011 02:57:02 +0000 I feel like his Post Season stats and successful results make him a hall of famer.

Had his post season numbers been less impressive with the same career regular season stats, I wouldn't even consider him.

By: ACE Fri, 11 Feb 2011 03:30:27 +0000 yeah,...I'm on the edge of my seat though,...wondering if Andy is going to survive the benign tumour he's afflected with @

By: Matthew Cornwell Fri, 11 Feb 2011 02:57:22 +0000 So Ace, we both agree that Mussina (and Brown) will get hosed by he voters. I think it is a shame too.

Either way, we better stop before we put everybody to sleep. 🙂

By: ACE Fri, 11 Feb 2011 02:47:25 +0000 @192...I agree,...the bottom line is Glavine is going to the HOF and he will get in based on his above average peak, in spite of his less than stellar career value relative to his peers...I just believe a pitcher with 'extra' seasons gets too much credit from the voters, at the expense of others with a better career value but with not enough counting stats or the magic this case 300 Wins to 'guarantee' entry... a case in point being Mike Mussina...

...the sad part is Mike had a peak as long as Glavine - 12 seasons ('93-'04)...his unweighted adjusted ERA was 131+ to Glavine's 135+...however his WAR was 4.8 to TG's 4.3, and his 17 /20+ start seasons were 125+/4.3 to Glavine's 20 /20+ start seasons of 122+/3.4

...unless there is a wholesale conversion of the voters,..Mussina has little or no chance of getting in. I hope they prove me wrong for Pettitte,...he did not achieve a sufficently high peak nor was he able to sustain an above average performance for enough seasons, to qualify for the Hall


By: NoChanceforPettitte Fri, 11 Feb 2011 00:48:37 +0000 @191
Great post. I would like to be petty and pretend that it doesn't mean anything, but I think it's outstanding. It's primarily great because it doesn't say, "Oh, you don't understand WAR or ERA+" (I do)... it says "Here is your Pettitte vs. Yankee Teammates and I'll raise you Pettitte vs. #1 offenses."

When a player such as Pettitte is brought up... a clearly borderline player, this information is important. Unlike the Glavine-related post with I am yawning myself to pieces over.

By: Matthew Cornwell Thu, 10 Feb 2011 23:59:19 +0000 190

I can see your point,

Overall, I am sayign that when you have 72 WAR for your career, you need a moderate peak to be a HOFer.

Glavine posted three 6+ WAR seasons, five 5+ WAR seasons, seven 4+ WAR seasons, and twelve 3 WAR seasons. He has 21 WAE (Wins Above Exclellence - which is WAR accumulated above 3 in any given season) which is about the same as Biggio, Gwynn, Manny, and a host of other "easy" HOFers. More than Smoltz and a lot more than Pettitte. His rankings in Peak -weighted WAR (38th all time) and Peak-Adjusted WAR (29th all time) attest to a pretty good peak.

I am not saying his peak was amazing or that his peak was dominating or even as good as Schilling or Mussina or Borwn. Just more than enough to get into the HOF when you consider his career value on top of it.

If someone is a "small-hall" fan and thinks Glavine is short due to lack-of-peak...fine. But there will be a lot of "No-brainers" that will be left behind with him.

By: John Autin Thu, 10 Feb 2011 22:59:42 +0000 I want to preface the following long post by saying that I think Pettitte belongs in the first tier of pitchers just outside the HOF.

1. Pitching against the top-scoring team in his league.

(a) How did he do against the #1 offense?
-- 20 starts, 8-10 W-L, 5.28 ERA.
(year-by-year stats at bottom of post)

(b) How often did he face the #1 offense?
If everything were distributed normally, he would have made about 30 starts against the top-scoring team in his league.
But Pettitte made just 20 starts against the #1 offense.
-- The Yankees were the top offense in 5 of Andy's 13 years with them.
-- Just once in his 13 Yankee years was the top-scoring team an opponent in his division.
-- Pettitte made 15 starts with Houston in 2004, but never faced division rival St. Louis, who led the NL in scoring and won 105 games.

2. Pitching against Boston, the Yankees' main division rival throughout his career.

(a) Did Pettitte get any extra share of the starts?
-- No. The Yankees faced Boston in 9.7% of all games during Pettitte's two terms. Pettitte made 9.3% of his Yankee starts against the BoSox (37 out of 396). He started 40 games against Baltimore, 41 against Toronto.

(b) How did he do against Boston?
-- He did well: 3.91 ERA, 18-10 record in 37 starts. He gave up a lot of hits, but he kept them in the park (10 HRs in 227.2 IP).

3. Pettitte vs. losing & winning teams:
-- vs. teams = .500: 219 starts (45.7% of starts), 97-70 W-L (.581), 4.24 ERA.

Year by year vs. #1 offense:
2010 -- 0 (NYY)
2009 -- 0 (NYY)
2008 -- 1 (TEX: 5 IP, 5 ER, 0-1 record)
2007 -- 0 (NYY)
2006 -- 1 (PHI: 6.1 IP, 2 R, 1 ER, 0-0 record)
2005 -- 3 (CIN: 20 IP, 7 R, 4 ER, 2-1 record)
2004 -- 0 (STL)
2003 -- 4 (BOS: 25 IP, 15 R, 14 ER, 3-1 record)
2002 -- 0 (NYY)
2001 -- 2 (SEA: 12.1 IP, 15 R, 11 ER, 0-2 record)
2000 -- 3 (CHW: 18 IP, 15 R, 14 ER, 1-2 record)
1999 -- 1 (CLE: 2.2 IP, 8 R, 6 ER, 0-1 record)
1998 -- 0 (NYY)
1997 -- 2 (SEA: 13.2 IP, 5 ER, 1-1 record)
1996 -- 1 (SEA: 9 IP, 4 ER, 1-0 record)
1995 -- 2 (CLE: 12.1 IP, 9 ER, 0-1 record)

By: ACE Thu, 10 Feb 2011 22:57:26 +0000 @175 terms of peak value, there is no question that Glavine increases the margin over Pettitte. I think we can generally agree that TG's peak seasons were between 1991-2002 12 seasons,...the first 4 were non descript, as he worked his way into the show,...the last 6 were,...well, just not up to the standard he set for himself over the previous 12

...his unweighted average ERA+ over that time was 9 points over AP's peak,...roughly 1996-2006 (minus 05'... less than 20 starts) 9 seasons

135+ to 126+

...if we employ WAR (Sean Smith version) over the peak seasons for each respectively we have an unweighted average of 4.3 for Glavine and 4.0 for Pettitte

...for those who prefer a more traditional stat (let's face it, the voters do ....)

TG averaged 17.4 wins over his 12 seasons, and AP averaged 17.1 over his 9 seasons...

conclusion: TG's peak was certainly the better by a larger margin than career value, over AP...the 'downfall' for Glavine is that when you factor in the seasons in which he made 20 + starts outside of his peak = (8) and Pettitte's (6)...

...the gap closes substantially in terms of career value between the two...

which is the original point I was trying to make with my comment @142

...I'm glad we see eye to eye on Mussina 🙂

By: Mike Felber Thu, 10 Feb 2011 22:00:09 +0000 OK, I see your explanation of how your post got through, thanks. I meant that Pettitte had 3, not 4, years when he was really excellent.

By: Mike Felber Thu, 10 Feb 2011 21:54:58 +0000 I am trying to see the fitting analogy in the tumor matter, but it seems very ill fitting. I do not know that those who smoke heavily & never get diseases are more studied, but if you mean to say that that there is something unusual or unexpected in comparing his record with isolating the quality of his performances, I see nothing at all unusual about these things.

He was a good pitcher over most of his career, & for 4 years seems to have been excellent, more like All Star-elite level performance. It has been charted above how well even a mediocre pitcher would do in W-L record with the Yankees over the years he played. How is it surprising that his 117 OPS + & a great closer would yield the results he had?

And again, is there any indication that he was significantly or at all better than the 3.3 WAR per year results he repeated, not counting his best 3 years? If not-& he was no Koufax/Clemens ever, then he has no good HOF argument.

Lou Whitaker? He is a great case of a "compiler" of value, tremendously consistent with no significant peak at all. One may not want him for the HOF if the view of it is either 1) Small hall, or 2) Peak greatness is valued. I would put him in. But comparing him to Pettitte, he created significantly more career value. If Pettitte created his average career value over, say, at least 1/6 more IP, then he would be seen fairly as creating enough career value.

I welcome info here about how much Pettite or Whitaker varies in WAR or career value assessments in different systems. I recall a listing which rated Pettitte somewhat higher than ~ 50 WAR, but I cannot see how he deserves this.