Comments on: Mailbag: What Are Derek Jeter’s Chances of Breaking the All-Time Hits Record? This and that about baseball stats. Tue, 16 Jul 2013 17:01:55 +0000 hourly 1 By: Chad Wed, 29 Dec 2010 18:09:45 +0000 My guess would be that he has a better chance at breaking the runs record than the hits record, not that I think he'll break that. Using the favorite toy, it projects him to 1920 runs, which would be 10th all time. I think that's definitely low, since his 3 year multiplier was 88 runs, 2nd lowest of his career.

Using that projection, he would be 375 runs short going into his 39 y/o season. Scoring runs is less of an individual task than getting hits, and being that Jeter plays for, and will likely play for, a top 3 offense, my guess would be that he'll end up at least in the neighborhood of 2100 runs, if not more.

By: David in Toledo Mon, 27 Dec 2010 02:30:54 +0000 It matters a lot if a player zeroes in on a goal and has a playing situation which allows him to go for it: Rose for the hits, Aaron for the homers (as he pulled within range, Aaron's average dropped but his homer frequency went up).

I would bet that no shortstop ever gets close to 4,000 career hits.

In fact, I'm pretty sure Jeter holds the record for most hits as a shortstop right now. A lot of Honus Wagner's hits came as an outfielder.

By: Sal Mon, 27 Dec 2010 02:20:49 +0000 2.4 seasons? He just signed a three year deal! That completely invalidates this entire thing.

By: Mike Felber Fri, 24 Dec 2010 21:52:14 +0000 True Kd. Though from '67-'73, ages 33-39, Aaron did better than his career average in OPS +, & seemingly that average to date. That should account for park effects, so Aaron, who seemed to grow a gut by the end, hit at a high level late in his career, without PEDs or modern conditioning.

By: kds Fri, 24 Dec 2010 20:17:53 +0000 1966 was Aaron's first year in Atlanta. Milwaukee was a bad home park for HR, Atlanta a good one. So in what should have been decline years his totals stayed high because he was in a more favorable environment. Favorite Toy doesn't see this of course, but go forward a couple of years, so that you are only using Atlanta years in the prediction, and the chance to reach 715 will go way up.

By: Johnny Twisto Fri, 24 Dec 2010 19:10:12 +0000 I also remember an article in the Sporting News {in 1967, I think} in which predictions were made about who -- if anyone -- would be the one to break Babe Ruth's "magic" 714 home run record. A lot of great hitters -- Mays, Mathews, Banks, Mantle and Frank Robinson to name the better known names mentioned -- each of whom had at least a slight chance to make it. Strangely, the one most notable omission to that list was Henry Aaron

Interesting. Let's see what the Favorite Toy would have said, going into the '67 season:

Aaron, 33 yo, 442 HR: 7% chance to reach 715, 0% for 755
Mays, 36 yo, 542 HR: 15% for 715, 45% for 660
F. Robinson, 31 yo, 373 HR: 11% for 715, 48% for 586
H. Killebrew, 31 yo, 336 HR: 4% for 715, 37% for 573
Mantle, 35 yo, 496 HR: 0% for 715, 94% for 536
Mathews, 35 yo, 493 HR: 0% for 715, 97% for 512
Banks, 36 yo, 419 HR: 0% for 715, 5% for 512
Colavito, 33 yo, 358 HR: 0% for 715, 97% for 374 (I never realized he was not too far off the pace of these other legends at that time. But he was basically done after '66.)

So if I've done my math correctly, there was about a 1 in 3 chance at that point that one of Aaron, Mays, Robinson, or Killebrew would break the record, though individually they were all longshots.

By: Charles Saeger Fri, 24 Dec 2010 16:22:54 +0000 What @64 said. Over the last three years, Jeter has an OPS+ of 106. Over the equivalent three years in Pete Rose's career, Rose had an OPS+ of 129. (For more comparison, Jeter's career OPS+ is 119; Rose's through age 36 was 126. It gets worse for Jeter: his OPS+ through age 23 was 101, Rose's was 91, so that weighs down the career figures, which favor Rose from age 24 onward.) Jeter is +29 runs in the offensive stats of WAR over the last three years; Rose from age 34-36 was +77. Rose was a better hitter throughout his career overall, and was a much better hitter at age 36.

This makes Rose's feat even more remarkable, when you think about it. His hitting ability held up into his late 30s without steroids (I assume he was on greenies, on which everyone in baseball was in that era), and he did this in a hitting environment that was much worse than that of Derek Jeter's. And the guy who held the record before Rose was a better hitter than Rose and Jeter combined.

BTW: the link to Pete Rose in the article proper goes to RePete Rose, who doesn't deserve to be mentioned in the same sentence with Jeter or his father, at least when talking baseball.

By: Biff Fri, 24 Dec 2010 10:09:56 +0000 Wouldn't it be a better time to pose this question if Jeter had 3,772 hits?

By: MrBryan Fri, 24 Dec 2010 06:38:48 +0000 I think Jeter's biggest obstacle to reaching the hit record is that 2010 was not an off year which may signify the beginning of a decline, but 2009 was a fluke year that interrupted what has been a steady downward flow in Jeter's production since 2006. Pull our 2009, and Jeter's OPS+ numbers are 132, 121, 102, 90. His BA is .343, .322, .300, and .270. His SLG is .483, .452, .408, .370. His OBP tells the same story .417, .388, .363, .340. His home run numbers are 14, 12, 11, 10. His hit totals are 214, 206, 179, 179. It seems very likely that Jeter will struggle to hit .250 in 2011, and lose his full time job in the next two to three years. His career, I would think, is almost over.

By: John Autin Fri, 24 Dec 2010 05:16:23 +0000 Reaching out again to Frank @48:
I realize my tone @50 sounded smug. At that moment, I was only thinking of whether Jeter would be motivated by the record you cited. Please don't be offended.