Comments on: There’s an Hall of Fame Election Coming Up–Let us Know What you Think This and that about baseball stats. Tue, 16 Jul 2013 17:01:55 +0000 hourly 1 By: Tom Gallagher Tue, 07 Dec 2010 13:14:25 +0000 #136 Doug B... No, of course not. These guys did not get voted in by the BBWAA.

By: Doug B Tue, 07 Dec 2010 10:51:14 +0000 did your model have Chick Hafey and Fred Lindstrom in the hall?

By: Tom Gallagher Mon, 06 Dec 2010 14:18:00 +0000 I built a model of the BBWAA vote back in 1994 / 95 timeframe. At the time it was 97.5% matching. The 2.5% variance was comprised of ... 3 players who don't belong, and about 9 players who did belong. Based on that model, four players from these candidates should get in (Tommy John, Ron Guidry, Steve Garvey, Ted Simmons) Tommy John and Steve Garvey were "barely across the line" Ron Guidry and Ted Simmons were "definate HOFers". The three players who BBWAA voted in but did not match the model were Rabbit Marranville, Ted Lyons and Ralph Kiner. (Dizzy Dean was also an extreme borderline case). I had a couple discussions with Jack Lang back at that time. He agreed that his body (BBWAA) made a mistake on Rabbit Marranville. He thought the Veterans voted in Ted Lyons and then he looked it up and admitted that this too was likely a mistake. But, he agrued at length on Ralph Kiner.

By: Doug B Mon, 06 Dec 2010 13:39:44 +0000 I don't have a problem with Ted Simmons being out. I would vote him in but I admit he's borderline.

But I am surprised he has so little support.

By: Tom Gallagher Mon, 06 Dec 2010 13:33:05 +0000 Boy, I am out of touch. I did not realize the Hall changed the Veterans process again this summer. Looking at the procedures and the makeup of the voting members, I do expect to see 2 elected. Players ( either Tommy John or Ron Guidry) Executives (Marvin Miller). I don't think Bench and Perez are going to want to see Garvey in there. And, they won't blatantly pick their teammate Concepcion. Also, Bench won't want Simmons. He will claim weak arm / defense. I see Tommy John or Ron Guidry as having the least amount of resistance from an ego standpoint. And, if the expansion era (ie: free agent era ) does not elect Miller... shame on them. This should be their ultimate way to say... Thank You.

By: Twinsdude Sun, 05 Dec 2010 14:36:59 +0000 Tommy John would easily have won 300+ games if he hadn't missed so much time due to an injury that resulted in a surgical procedure that is now named after him! How is he not already in the HOF? I also voted for Ted Simmons, one of the best catchers of his generation with stats that are far superior to some of the catchers already in. My last vote went to George Steinbrenner...let's face it, owners don't get much more famous than him and he was the owner of a team that won 7 World Series during his life.

By: Tom Gallagher Sun, 05 Dec 2010 07:13:21 +0000 @124 DavidRF... I agree that 200 Wins would likely be the magic number for Guidry. It just seems ridiculous that a few medicore to poor seasons at the end of a career should be the tipping point. Was not Dazzy Vance better without his last 4 seasons when he was over 40 years of age ? 12-11 , 6-2 , 1-3 , 3-2 If he quit at 40 he would have been 175-122 but these extra years got him to 197 Wins and the Hall of Fame. Or was Vance a HOFer without these 4 years ?

By: Tom Gallagher Sun, 05 Dec 2010 03:28:27 +0000 DavidRF , thanks for running this. Excellent results. When we include WHIP, we are left with 11 pitchers in the history of baseball. All HOFers (or not yet eligible) except Ron Guidry. I think he deserves it. When we factor in in post-season success,cat-like fielding,leadership and integrity.
Post-season success - Ron would have been a perfect 4-0 in World Series starts, but he made one bad pitch to Steve Yeager and the Yankees lost the game 2-1.
Cat-like fielding - by far the best fielding pitcher I have ever seen (Mariano Rivera is a close 2nd) The voters started realizing this half way thru his career and he wound up winning 5 straight gold gloves. He played centerfield in the resumption of the "pine tar game". And, was always the fastest guy on the team. Faster than Mickey Rivers when he was there.
Leadership - Named Yankee Captain. He was into every game, not just every fifth day. He was always the first player out of the dugout to greet teamates. (have to watch the videos for this)
Integrity - Ron would not do an endorsement unless he truly used the product and believed in it. Although he did chew tobacco and had an offer to endorse , he did not want to set an example for the youngsters. Guidry would have won 20 in 1979 too , but he volunteered for bullpen after Goose Gossage went down to injury. The same year Catfish Hunter got injured in the 4th with the Yankees having a big lead. Billy Martin told Guidry to get in there knowing that he was closing in on 20 wins. Guidry bowed out know Ron Davis was going for a record for most wins out of the bullpen for a rookie. Davis went in and took the easy win.

Ron wanted to pitch longer he bowed out gracefully after basically being forced into retirement. The new Yankee manager Dallas Green did not even want Guidry (or Tommy John) at spring training. Steinbrener interviened and made special invites to both Guidry and John. Ron's wife Bonnie was crying at his retirement announcement and ended it with... "He can still pitch" Ron did not want to play for another team. It was sad. Sort of an injustice. Five or Six years into retirement he comtemplated a come-back after hearing Jim Palmer may try. During this timeframe the reports from Yankee camp were that Boggs, Mattingly, and O'neil could not come close to touching Guidry's stuff each spring training camp.

By: DavidRF Sun, 05 Dec 2010 01:40:08 +0000 OK... I have the new results. I found a couple of mistakes in my earlier runs, too. I was eyeballing the list for the winners before. Lefty Grove still wins a ton, but a couple less than I had previously thought because Lefty Gomez looks very similar at first glance. :-). I'm using the code to mark the winners now.

Overall, there are a few more Triple Crown winners with the higher cutoff. Previously, a low-IP player would come in and steal the ERA crown for a decade.

Walter Johnson 06-15 thru 15-24 (all with WHIP bonus)
Lefty Grove 23-32 thru 29-38 (all with WHIP bonus)
Hal Newhouser 40-49 thru 44-53 (WHIP bonus in last three windows)
Ron Guidry 77-86 (WHIP bonus)
Roger Clemens 84-93 thru 90-99 (WHIP bonus in all but final window)

Christy Mathewson 99-08 (WHIP bonus)
Pete Alexander 09-18 and 11-20 thru 15-24 (WHIP bonus in final two)
Dazzy Vance 23-32 thru 24-33 (all WHIP bonus)
Carl Hubbell 27-36 thru 33-32 (all WHIP bonus)
Warren Spahn 44-53 thru 48-57 (no WHIP bonus)
Tom Seaver 66-75 thru 69-78 (all WHIP bonus)
Steve Carlton 74-83 and 76-85 (no WHIP bonus)
Greg Maddux 86-95, 87-96, 91-00 (WHIP bonus in last two)

The higher cutoff helped Mathewson (who was losing ERA to Brown), Carlton (Tekulve), Maddux (Rijo), Newhouser (Chandler) and Johnson (Joss).

WHIP losses... Newhouser (Feller), Clemens (Mussina), Alexander (Mathewson, BAdams), Spahn (Roberts), Carlton (Sutton), Maddux (DMartinez).

By: DavidRF Sun, 05 Dec 2010 00:47:09 +0000 Blyleven had 1381 AL innings pitched from 1977-1986, so using a 1500+ cutoff excludes him and gives Guidry the TripleCrown+WhipCrown for that decade.

I don't know what a reasonable IP-cutoff is for a decade. Part of me thought that 1500 was a bit high because it was close to 1620 which is 10*minimum. But most full time starters sail past 162 IP/year. I'm just making this up. The 1000 IP seemed low for earlier eras because of the large run-context shifts would skew the decade-ERA champs. Kid Nichols 1890-92 grabs qualifies for a full decade as does Joss 1907-1910.

I'll rerun my scripts with the 1500 IP cutoff... and with the added WHIP calculation.