Comments on: Formula Predicts Value of Baseball Free Agents – NYTimes.com http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/9041 This and that about baseball stats. Tue, 16 Jul 2013 17:01:55 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=4.6 By: Ride to Norway – Illegal Freestyle Motorbike – Julien Dupont – RTW S2 | sexymotorcycle.com http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/9041/comment-page-1#comment-70310 Wed, 10 Nov 2010 14:52:28 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=9041#comment-70310 [...] Formula Predicts Value of Baseball Free Agents – NYTimes.com … [...]

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By: Allstate Commercial Ghost Bikes Crash | sexymotorcycle.com http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/9041/comment-page-1#comment-70307 Wed, 10 Nov 2010 14:50:57 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=9041#comment-70307 [...] Formula Predicts Value of Baseball Free Agents – NYTimes.com … [...]

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By: Kahuna Tuna http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/9041/comment-page-1#comment-68547 Tue, 09 Nov 2010 01:55:04 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=9041#comment-68547 Sean Foreman [sic] is the creator of Baseball-Reference.com.

For a guy whose articles they love to publish, Sean, The Times didn't make anyone stay late checking the spelling of your name, did they?

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By: Michael E Sullivan http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/9041/comment-page-1#comment-68321 Mon, 08 Nov 2010 21:50:11 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=9041#comment-68321 Jeter was the one that really stood out for me. I'm not ready to say he's done as an all-star level performer, and I think it's reasonably likely he'll do better next year than he did this year. But it also seems plausible that he won't do much better. If I was setting the over under on his 2011 WAR it would be a lot lower than 3.25. More like 2-ish. And I suspect any similarity projector that took age into account would score him quite a bit lower also.

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By: kds http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/9041/comment-page-1#comment-68259 Mon, 08 Nov 2010 20:46:47 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=9041#comment-68259 Hartvig,

I think that these less than reliable predictions come from not adjusting for aging. Dunn is the youngest of those you list, isn't he, and all the others would be expected to decline more. Dunn also moved to !B full time in 2010 and is much closer to average there than in the outfield. This means that using 2008 and 2009 data for him will show him as a worse defender then is likely true. Again lowering future predicted value.

There was a note in the article indicating that aging had not been taken into account. And I understand that there are fairly strict limits on the length of these articles, but leaving out aging adjustments makes these predictions pretty questionable on a practicle basis. Especially given the ages of most of these free agents.

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By: Hartvig http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/9041/comment-page-1#comment-68047 Mon, 08 Nov 2010 16:43:58 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=9041#comment-68047 Any formula that thinks that Lance Berkman, Johnny Damon, Manny Ramirez, Lyle Overbay, Derrek Lee and Jim Thome are going to be worth more next year then Adam Dunn is pretty much worthless.

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By: Johnny Twisto http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/9041/comment-page-1#comment-68016 Mon, 08 Nov 2010 15:56:54 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=9041#comment-68016 I wonder how many people will completely miss the chart because it's so small and stacked with a bunch of other stuff unrelated to the article. Good design choice, NY Times!

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