Comments on: Game One Thoughts This and that about baseball stats. Tue, 16 Jul 2013 17:01:55 +0000 hourly 1 By: John Autin Mon, 01 Nov 2010 22:00:37 +0000 @36 Kds -- Thanks for the followup. So, it actually is akin to the Monty Hall Problem! And I get it now.

By: andyr Sat, 30 Oct 2010 06:39:42 +0000 #12 Lawrence Azrin: From what I remember reading, The Star-Spangled Banner would be played on Opening Day and the 1st game of the World Series. Believe that WW2 was more of an impetus to the song being played before each game- supposedly the Cubs were the last holdout into the early 60s.

I like God Bless America, but not at every game and usually being butchered by a pseudo-soul type singer- it's NOT a soul or interpretive-style song. The Giants have had it played before by Dick Bright, a local musician who plays it on electric violin- sounds wonderful...

By: bureaucratist Sat, 30 Oct 2010 05:47:32 +0000 Re #12 - God, I am so happy to hear people saying this.

By: Chuck Sat, 30 Oct 2010 02:06:56 +0000 "Given Lee's ungodly K/BB over the last 3 years (7.2) it's hard for me to believe that simply laying off his pitches and "making him hit the strike zone" is going to be an effectively long term strategy against him. You simply don't get those kind of numbers without pinpoint control."

You set up hitters with strikes, you get them out with balls.

Did you watch the Yankee hitters? They looked like a bunch of drunks trying to play whiffleball in a hurricane.

The number of actual strikes Lee threw with his breaking ball over the two games you could probably count on two hands, the rest of them were 55 footers the Yank hitters seemingly were trying to hit off the bounce.

Same with his straight stuff..outside corner, five inches outside, ten inches outside.

The Giants hitters were extremely patient and forced Lee into the strike zone, where he is very hittable, because he doesn't have Clemens's stuff or Maddux' smarts.

I certainly see your point, Mr. Sullivan, and while my comment was somewhat exaggerated for emphasis, it was still a clinic the Giants hitters put on, and in front of a much bigger audience.

There were alot of people sitting behind home plate with radar guns and pitch charts who get paid good money to notice stuff like that, and I'd bet it was.

By: Michael E Sullivan Fri, 29 Oct 2010 21:37:49 +0000 It's the World Series; every GM, every manager, scouting director, every hitting coach is watching. The Giants just laid out a blue print on how to attack Cliff Lee.

Given Lee's ungodly K/BB over the last 3 years (7.2) it's hard for me to believe that simply laying off his pitches and "making him hit the strike zone" is going to be an effectively long term strategy against him. You simply don't get those kind of numbers without pinpoint control.

If it was really that easy, surely some of the BB loving hitters in the AL would have figured it out by now.

Doesn't it seem much more likely that he just had a bad night? It does happen. Even the immortals don't pitch postseason gems every freaking time out. If hitters can get to Maddux and Clemens for a game in their prime every so often, they can get to Cliff Lee.

By: kds Fri, 29 Oct 2010 20:28:49 +0000 John,

Try thinking of it this way. Look at the situation after 4 flips; you have 8 different sequences; HHHH, HTHH, HHTH, HHHT, HTTH, HTHT, HHTT, HTTT. Only the first of those, HHHH is finished, all the others have more contests to complete. So after 4 HHHH is 1/8 or 12.5%. It keeps that 12.5% share even as the other sequences continue to later rounds. So it was wrong to call it 1 of 35, and correct to say 8 of 64. This type of counting, called combinatorics is the heart of a lot of probability math.

Sean, how come my sign on name comes up Kds, when I always enter kds? I do like my picture, but if you could show a bit more people could see the dimple in my chin, some say it's my best feature!

By: John Autin Fri, 29 Oct 2010 19:19:00 +0000 @34, Kds -- Thanks for (trying to) explain that to me. It may take me a while to grasp ... hopefully not as long as it took me to accept the correct answer to the "Monty Hall Dilemma"!

By: kds Fri, 29 Oct 2010 16:11:28 +0000 John Autin @27,

You are not properly weighing each opportunity. Whenever you do not play the full 7 games you must accord more weight to that sequence. So for example in the first you list where H sweeps, should count that as 8 wins in the H column, not just 1.
Each 5 flip sequence counts as 4 for all of the unnecessary 6th and 7th flips. Each sequence that ends at 6 counts as 2. When you add all these in you get 64 total. this equals 2^6 (2 to the 6th power) which is the number of possibilities of something done 6 times that has 2 possible results. The additional 29 to get from your 35 (split 20 H, 15 T), are 22 H, only 7 T, giving totals of 42 H, 22 T. Which is 66%.

By: John Autin Fri, 29 Oct 2010 15:51:18 +0000 @29, Chuck ("Shortstops get paid to catch the ball, not hit it") --

Whatever truth there ever was in that statement, has long since passed from the MLB scene.

That's not to say that there aren't several weak-hitting shortstops starting in the majors. But teams don't just turn a blind eye to it.

By: Chuck Fri, 29 Oct 2010 15:39:53 +0000 @Johnny Twisto: THANK YOU. Sometimes I feel as though I'm the only one who thinks this about God Bless America. I don't even like standing for the Star Spangled banner at the beginning of the game. It feels too much like church. All we're doing is using the flag as a proxy for God. Do we have to worship something, anything, every time groups of people gather together? Is it really necessary?