Comments on: POLL: Willie Stargell and the Hall of Fame This and that about baseball stats. Tue, 16 Jul 2013 17:01:55 +0000 hourly 1 By: Jeff Zoerner Thu, 28 Oct 2010 18:48:49 +0000 Willie was better than Reggie Jackson in every way. I'm surprised it's Willie being discussed instead of Reggie, as I am surprised that Reggie always ranks higher on all-time lists. Why?

By: Cam Sun, 24 Oct 2010 13:42:47 +0000 Joe Jackson and the hall of fame.

By: Matt Y Fri, 22 Oct 2010 19:00:05 +0000 Kaat (25 season 4500IP and 24 IP in playoffs):

BG WAR: 63
B-P WAR: 49
B-R: 41
Win Shares 269
ERA+ 108
WPA: 4.0
Wins: 283 +1 in playoffs

John (26 season 4700IP and 88 Innings in playoffs)):

B-P WAR: 64.5
B-R: 59
Win Shares: 291
ERA+ 111
WPA: 25
Wins: 288 + 6 in playoffs)

Tiant (19 seasons 3500IP and 34 playoff IP):

BG WAR: 63
B-P WAR: 63
B-R WAR 60
Win Shares: 252
ERA+ 114
WPA: 25.5
Wins: 229 + 3 in playoffs

Pettitte (16 season 3055IP and 263 playoff IP)

BG WAR: 51 (add ~5 WAR for postseason play)
B-P WAR 58 (add ~5 WAR for postseason play)
B-R WAR 50.2 (add ~5 WAR for postseason play)
Win Shares 210 (add ~20 Win Shares for postseason play)
ERA+ 117 (with 263 postseason IP, and given the similarities of his numbers, you can safely assume his ERA + would still be around 117 in ~3400IP)
WPA: 23 (add 2 more points for postseason play)
Wins: 240 + 19 in playoffs

Seems to me Kaat still wouldn't be a good choice; Tiant would be a nice Vet pick; John is on the fence hurt by being too much a compiler, but still wouldn't be a terrible Vet pick (perhaps give him a smidgeon of credit for surgery as well); and Pettitte is 1-2 seasons away when including post season numbers via either playoffWAR or Wins and championships.

Fangraph doesn't have WAR for pitchers that pitched pre-1980?

By: Matt Y Fri, 22 Oct 2010 18:21:37 +0000 No, I haven't, but there are some ~7-10% lower at BG (see bellow). Yes, if there's a 20% difference it's always in favor of BG. However, the majority of pitchers are in the same ballpark --eyeballing it I'd say ~80% of the pitchers are close (within a WAR of 1-3 or within 5%) The big differences, and this is by means of a very rough eyeball crude analysis, seems to be mostly with HoFers with WARs above 60 that were high strikeout pitchers. Schilling, Smoltz, Ryan, Pedro, Randy Johnson, Walter Johnson, Clemens, etc all rank ~13-20% higher at BG. The Kaat 63 at BG is a bit perplexing though, but Kaat was a great defensive player and he played on some interesting defensive teams (I think I'll take a closer look at Kaat).

So, in short, the truth probably lies somewhere in the middle between us. BG's WAR in on average higher, but it's comparable. I'd like to see the median between the two sites. I suspect this would be a better indicator given the variability at BG. Defensive metrics and K's or K/walk ratio might be at the heart of the difference and variability.

Warren Spahn:

BG: 85
B-R: 93

Tom Glavine:

BG: 59
B-R: 67

Rick Reuschel:

BG: 61
B-R 66


BG: 43
B-R 47

By: Michael E Sullivan Fri, 22 Oct 2010 17:38:34 +0000 ok sorry I missed that you did find one guy: Jamie Moyer who is if not 15% lower, at least more than 10% lower -- along with a bunch that are roughly equivalent.

I couldn't suss out too much about their pitcher evaluation, but they definitely have a higher replacement level than B-R for position players. If the same is true for pitchers, that would explain Moyer's doing worse there he's probably got more innings than anybody on your list except maybe tommy john. doesn't explain Kaat's doing so well over there though.

By: Michael E Sullivan Fri, 22 Oct 2010 17:30:06 +0000 I haven't done an exhaustive study or anything, but of the 30odd pitchers I've looked at on both BG and B-R, a few are roughly equal, and all the rest are anywhere from a bit to quite a bit higher at BG. I've yet to see a pitcher whose BG WAR was more than a hair lower than their B-R WAR, but I've seen a fair number that are 20% higher.

I'll accept even some cherry picked examples at least as enough evidence that I'd need to do more research before holding on to my current opinion. Can you find any pitcher whose BG WAR is >15% *lower* than their B-R WAR?

By: Matt Y Fri, 22 Oct 2010 03:06:03 +0000 Here's just a quick sample of some guys I just looked at as a comparison of BG WAR to B-R WAR --

Whitey Ford
B-R WAR 55.3

David Cone
BG WAR 55.4
B-R WAR 57

Jamie Moyer
B-R WAR 48

Luis Tiant
BG WAR 62.5
B-R WAR 60

Bret Saberhagen
B-R WAR 55

Tommy John
B-R WAR 59

Roy Halladay
B-R WAR 54

Billy Pierce

53 at both sites

Pettitte's WARs are basically the same at both site as well. 50.2 vs. 50.9

If you poke around, yes, Schilling's WAR at BG is 10+ points higher, as is Early Wynn, Jim Kaat (is actually 63 at BG vs. 41) and some others, but it varies quite a bit as evidenced by these examples. Mussina's is also 5 points higher at BG, but Moyer's is 5 points lower at BG.

So again, a WAR of 51 at BG is in that borderline range as well IMO. Seems to me that BG just is more highly variable, but it's not way higher across the board than B-R. I suspect it varies more erratically because there's some issues with defensive metrics.

By: Matt Y Fri, 22 Oct 2010 02:37:51 +0000 So, in short, Pettittee's 51 BG WAR is just borderline as well, but yes,he's still on wrong side of line. Again, BG WAR for pitchers is not a lot higher than B-R--it varies. Another year (or two) could change that given he should get credit for playoffs whether that is with 5 more WAR or the titles and wins. I didn't think he was coming back earlier in year, but I'm hearing that he might be leaning towards one more year. As much as you can get sick with the core four stuff, it be nice to see Posada, Mo and Pettitte around for 2 more years....Posada would have to adjust to part-time DH though. Jeter will be around another 4 years.

By: Matt Y Fri, 22 Oct 2010 02:30:10 +0000 I didn't mean to bring up the two as a comparison, but can understand how it looks that way --they were interesting studies IMO. As for quibbling over whether Morris' WAR at fangraph and BG are borderline worthy, well, it's quibbling. He's barely borderline at best at some sites, but BG WAR is not a lot higher. Sorry. The BG WAR being a lot higher than B-R WAR is just NOT true -- if you poke around enough they're pretty comparable. Many pitchers are quite close and some BG WAR's are actually a bit lower. I'd say on average pitchers are slightly higher at BG, but it varies more than what you're stating here! I'd call 50 WAR +- a few borderline at any site --why, well, the WAR's can vary by 15+ points.

As for Pettitte needing 10 plus WAR, well, I'll assume you mean 5 more with the 5 playoff WAR he should already be credited for. Another good year or two and he's across the line for nearly all large Hall people and a good majority of moderate Hall guys (HGH aside). After 1-2 to more good seasons, he'd have a pretty strong resume to the traditionalist and a fair resume to the sabermetrician. He'd be short with some moderate Hall people, and probably all small Hall people and high peak people, but lets face it, the Hall isn't small, and they really don't elect many "peak-only" guys anymore. Pettitte is somewhat hurt by having two of his best seasons cut short by injuries --if they weren't cut short he'd have a solid 5 year peak, but hey, injuries are part of the game.

Going back to August 09, Pettitte is a combined 22-5 with 3.28 ERA --this includes playoffs.

By: Johnny Twisto Thu, 21 Oct 2010 22:13:38 +0000 Actually, going back to 2003, Andy I's last season with the Yankees, he is 9-3, 2.93 over his last 111 postseason IP.