Comments on: Holy Jimenez! This and that about baseball stats. Tue, 16 Jul 2013 17:01:55 +0000 hourly 1 By: Crashburn Alley » Blog Archive » Why Roy Halladay Will Not Win the Cy Young Fri, 18 Jun 2010 21:30:51 +0000 [...] Still, Jimenez finds himself in waters charted rarely throughout baseball history. Including Jimenez, only four pitchers since 1980 won 13 games in their teams’ first 66 games according to Baseball Reference. [...]

By: Frank Clingenpeel Fri, 18 Jun 2010 19:14:19 +0000 Larry, both Dimaggio and Vander Meer are approachable. It will take all kinds of talent AND all kinds of luck; but when it happens, remember -- you heard it here first {Probably not, but I have a real Walter Mitty imagination}.

By: John Q Fri, 18 Jun 2010 19:11:33 +0000 Nighfly, David J, Valid points.

David J,

Excellent point on Eckersley. I left out that Welch had a 1990 version of Eckersley saving his games. Oakland in the late 80's-early 90's was probably one of the best pitching environments in baseball history. Think about it:

1-Pitcher's Park
2-Great Offense
3-Eckersley in the bullpen
4-Great Defense
5-Dave Duncan as your pitching coach.

That's why you could have a season like Storm Davis in 1989 (85era+) and actually win 19 games!!. Just another example of why W/l sucks. The Royals signed him to a big contract after that seasons and it was the beginning of the down-slide for the Royals.

People look back on the A's teams and wonder why they only won 1 WS title from '88-92. Basically it was because they're starters sucked but their environment made them look good.

Clemens should have won the Cy Young in 1990, he had an ERA a FULL run lower than Welch and he was pitching in the worst pitcher's park in the American League while Welch was in the Best. God, are the baseball writers dumb? It's one of the best pitching seasons in baseball history that didn't result in a Cy Young.

Clemens actually should have won in '91 & '92 as well.

Selecting Eckersley as the Cy Young & MVP in 1992 was another dumb thing the writers did. Either Puckett, Thomas, McGuire, Alomar, Ventura, or Raines would have been much better selections.

By: Larry R. Fri, 18 Jun 2010 18:39:10 +0000 @29

I would contend that Rose was under more time pressure...every game was like the last game of the year for him. He had 4 or 5 ABs to get a hit every night. And he would have had to do this for another 2 weeks.

And, in another vein, don't buy this stuff about players only caring about winning the game. I remember Game 45 for Pete...2 outs, nobody on in the ninth of a 16-4 defeat and Gene Garber strikes him out with a curve ball. Boy, was Pete PO'ed! I guess he thought Garber should have challenged him with a fastball or something. He wanted the record bad. And, the closer he got, the more pitchers would have been feeding him junk off the plate to get him to chase. And that was the closest anyone's come in almost 70 years. Except for breaking Johnny Vander Meer's record it might be the most unassailable record we have.

By: nightfly Fri, 18 Jun 2010 18:10:50 +0000 @John Q, David J - I completely agree that Welch's big year was overrated; Jiminez is pitching much stronger than that right now - I only used Welch's example because of his ratio of wins/starts, and because he got closer to 30 wins than any other pitcher of the DH era. What David especially said about Eck is important here - he saved 19 of Welch's 27 wins, and closed out four of the other games in non-save situations. More importantly, Welch only had one save blown by his bullpen all year, by Rick Honeycutt, on April 25. His six losses, he left when already trailing.

Eck was out of his mind that year, and that holds in his 23 appearances in Welch wins: 24.1 IP, no runs, twelve hits, no walks, 27 K.

By: Michael E Sullivan Fri, 18 Jun 2010 17:46:57 +0000 Jimenez DICE over the last two years indicated he was due for marginally better results, as they were in HOF range (if he were to maintain them for 20 years) while his ERA+ was only around 125. Of course, the expectation was a 140ish season, not this. His DICE this year though, is commensurate with a dominant season, about in line with Pedro's career average. He's likely to regress, of course, but if he can keep holding off the homers as well as he does, and striking out 8/9I with a 2.5 K/BB ratio, he's got a lot of strong seasons ahead.

BTW, Lincecum's DICE are insane. They've dropped off a it this year as he's walked a few more guys and given up an extra homer over 90IP, but they are still basically off the charts. I don't know if he's going to blow his arm out in another 5 years, but if he doesn't, he's throwing on pace to make the hall oover a short (12-15 year) career. If anything, his ERA+ is *low* for his DICE numbers. maybe that's because he's pretty mortal on BABIP (I've only seen him pitch one game on tv, so don't really know his game), or maybe we're going to see a few monster 200+ seasons out of him before he's done when the worm turns his way a little.

By: James M Fri, 18 Jun 2010 17:42:36 +0000 Does anyone know what the biggest improvement in ERA from the previous season is for any starting pitcher (say with a min. innings limit) and for the NL ERA leader? I am just curious as Ubaldo currently stands at over 2.00 lower than last year's ERA and his career and this got me thinking about just a thing.

By: DavidJ Fri, 18 Jun 2010 17:14:41 +0000 To put the Welch season in even more perspective, he wasn't even one of the two best Cy Young candidates on his own team. Dave Stewart was the A's best starter that year, and Dennis Eckersley had perhaps the greatest season ever by a closer (at least by a modern one-inning closer, at any rate). Here are there WAR totals for 1990:

Stewart: 4.8
Eckersley: 3.2
Welch 2.5

Eckersley was so good that year that he was worth more wins in just 73.1 innings than Welch was in 238. It's also worth noting that Welch's WAR total was only the tenth best of his career: he had nine seasons in which he was worth at least 2.7 WAR, including a 6.6 WAR season for the Dodgers in 1987.

By: John Q Fri, 18 Jun 2010 15:26:36 +0000 That Bob Welch season is one of the most overrated pitching seasons of the last 40 years. It's another great example why W/L is a terrible way to judge a pitcher.

He was pitching in a pitcher's park on a team that had an excellent offense and what's often left out about those late 80's A's is that they were a tremendous defensive team as well.

He had a 126era+ which is decent but ranked about 7th in the A.L. that year. Also he owes a lot of that 126era+ to his defense that year. He had a 2.5 WAR which is just kind of average to tell you the truth.

Jimenez is amazing because he has a 391era+. To put his season in perspective, Pedro (2000) has the best single season post 1901 ERA+ at 291.

By: Andy Fri, 18 Jun 2010 13:55:21 +0000 The only reason I can imagine Jimenez getting extra starts at the end of the season is if the Rockies are close to a playoff berth and choose to skip other starters in favor of Jimenez. I cannot imagine them giving him bonus starts just to try to reach 30 wins.

The odds that this is even a relevant conversation come the beginning of April are slim at best. Jimenez may very well end up with 23-26 wins but 30 is still nearly unreachable.