Your point is well taken that when Pete got that close it would have been tough for any Cincy mgr to sit him. I still think its a little strange that he got played so much by any mgr as a first baseman. Here are his slugging averages from age 38 (1979) on when he became a full time first baseman:
.430, .354, .390, .338, .286, .337, .319,.270- Few successful teams are able to overcome that lack of productivity at first base.

'shoes

So Jeter definitely has a chance. But what other active players are on the pace I described above? ARod as 2250 hits at age 31 (250 hits ahead of the pace). Miguel Cabrera has 842 hits at 24 (242 hits ahead of the pace). Carl Crawford has 990 hits at 25 (190 hits ahead of the pace). Pujols has 1344 hits at 27 (144 hits ahead of the pace). Adrian Beltre has 1433 hits at 28 (33 hits ahead of the pace). Guerrero has 1972 hits at 31 (28 hits behind the pace). Edgar Renteria has 1934 hits at age 31 (66 hits behind the pace). Jimmy Rollins has 1307 hits at 28 (93 hits behind the pace).

If Jeter's age counts as 33, he is 44 hits behind the pace. If his age counts as 32, he is 156 hits ahead of the pace.

By the way, other interesting names that were way ahead of this pace early on include Kaline, Lindstrom, Hornsby and Medwick. And Buddy Lewis.

P.S. How outrageous is it that Cobb had nearly 1000 hits by the end of his 23-year-old season? And nearly 2000 hits by the end of his 28-year-old season? And 3000 hits by the end of his 34-year-old season?

Yea, I've heard that before, but I don't really buy it. He was Pete Rose in Cincinnati -- good luck finding that many managers willing to bench him when he approaches Cobb.

The danger spot for him was '84 when he came to Cincy. He hadn't played very well and looked to be at the end of his rope. Then he went batshit crazy upon his return - he actually had more 3-hit games than 0-hit games in those last six weeks. Heck, in the Cubs gave an aging Gary Gaetti a full-time job after a late '98 spurt that was less impressive, came after a worse season than Rose's most-of-1984, and Gaetti wasn't niether a local legend nor approaching an all-time great record.

Sealing the job, Rose actually had his batting average over .300 as late as June 9, 1985 - at that point he was within 50 of Ty Cobb's record. It didn't make any difference who his manager was - he was going to get enough playing time to seal the deal.

And he wasn't his own manager prior to his Cincy return.

To see where Albert Pujols ranks, I just ran a list of highest hit totals for 27-year-olds. Pujols is 18th, Jeter is 57th (behind Ted Simmons and Johnny Bench), and Pete Rose is 91st.

A-Rod is 5th among 27-year-olds, 4th among 31-year-olds. And A-Rod is 3rd in times on base for his current age (behind Ott and Foxx).

If he lasts just another 9 or 10 years, I think he'll be out of time. Because even without injury, he would still need to average more hits per season - in his decline years - than he averaged in the first half of his career (even adjusting for 2003 when he missed 30+ games).

It's possible, but not probable. There have only been 61 200-hit seasons occurring after age 33, as opposed to 405 from age 32 and younger. There have been a good amount of 190 and 180-hit seasons (106, 199), but he would have to AVERAGE that amount.

Of course, if you change the age to 34, there are even less instances. Even 170 hits becomes a lot more harder to come by.

Then again, he's walking a bit less in the last few years, and just had his second best 3-year run of both total hits and batting average. So maybe he's got his eye on it.

If he does the extraordinary and reaches 4000 hits by age 42, he would only need some marginal late-career Julio Franco seasons to pass Rose. The only 3 players to have more than 256 hits after age 42 are Franco, Rose and Carlton Fisk. Only five have had over 200 (those 3, plus Yaz and Sam Rice again), and I would think Jeter would need more than that.

Robin Yount is 4th on the list of players with 2356 hits through age 32. After age 28, however, he was an outfielder.

Derek is 430 hits ahead of Honus Wagner through age 33. And Wagner is one of the 5 -- check the typo -- who collected 1500 hits (1669) beginning age 33. But since, alas, one can be 33 only once, Wagner's comparison to Jeter should credit Wagner with 1489 from Jeter's current age onward.

Forget Pete Rose. If DJ can equal Honus Wagner's hit total, that would be an historic accomplishment.