Comments on: Prince Fielder’s comps

By: DavidRF

DavidRF — Fri, 09 Apr 2010 23:10:36 +0000

@11:
Those are Teixeira's career comps, not age comps. Not many guys amass his career totals and then just stop. That's why Kevin Mitchell tops the list. He was a heckuva player but he couldn't stay healthy.

Teixeira's age 29 comps are more flattering:
1. Carlos Delgado
2. Kent Hrbek
3. Jeff Bagwell
4. Fred McGriff
5. Jim Thome
6. Derrek Lee
7. Shawn Green
8. Albert Belle
9. Hal Trosky
10. Will Clark

Mostly recent guys. A lot of career paths he could follow there. As we've seen before the *young* Hrbek was underrated, but Hrbek started to fade at age 31 or so. Trosky was excellent but suffered terrible headaches that shortened his career. Thome's a HOF-er, hopefully Bagwell, too. McGriff and Delgado are close but probably short.

By: tmckelv

tmckelv — Fri, 09 Apr 2010 20:28:28 +0000

He is just too heavy to sustain the long career at this level. I think Mo Vaugn is the best comparison, and I am not sure Prince is even as good as Mo was in his best seasons (as an overall hitter - not just HR). Big guys seem to get "old" fast.

By: Tim L

Tim L — Fri, 09 Apr 2010 16:17:05 +0000

I looked at that list and said "wow, that's good company." You've got a few Hall of Famers in there, a few that fall just shy and a few others that could have been in the Hall if they hadn't gotten sidetracked by injuries or bad decisions.

By: Johnny Twisto

Johnny Twisto — Fri, 09 Apr 2010 16:08:08 +0000

And the most 35-double seasons of any 25-year-old weighing at least 250 lbs!!!

By: Baseball In-Depth

Baseball In-Depth — Fri, 09 Apr 2010 15:31:25 +0000

Here's one way to look at Fielder. He is one of only 7 players ever with 3 seasons of at least 34 HR and 100 RBI by age 25:

5 Albert Pujols
5 Alex Rodriguez
3 Prince Fielder
3 Vladimir Guerrero
3 Eddie Matthews
3 Jimmie Foxx
3 Mel Ott

He is also one of only 2 players with 2 seasons of 46 HR and 119 RBI by age 25, with the other being Jimmie Foxx.

By: Andy

Andy — Fri, 09 Apr 2010 14:24:11 +0000

Note that Teixeira's sim scores are mostly below 900, indicating poorer matches. There aren't a lot of good comps for him. These are the best there are.

By: MikeD

MikeD — Fri, 09 Apr 2010 13:54:22 +0000

I just checked Teixeira's similarity scores. While I wasn't surprised at Fielder's, I am surprised by this collection of "talent," with the exception being the guy at #2:

Kevin Mitchell (913)
Miguel Cabrera (905)
Tony Clark (883)
Dick Stuart (868)
Geoff Jenkins (861)
Gus Zernial (856)
Aubrey Huff (855)
Richie Sexson (853)
Richie Zisk (853)
Ripper Collins (853)

By: MikeD

MikeD — Fri, 09 Apr 2010 13:43:16 +0000

I'm not surprised by the list at all. It's actually a positive one with a little perspective. Out of the top ten, two are HOFers, and both are in Fielder's top three in similarity scores. A third, Frank Thomas, is a lock for the Hall, bringing it to three of ten, and a fourth, Mark Teixeira, is building the foundation of what could turn into a HOF career. If so, that's four out of the ten. Juan-Gone, Canseco and Strawberry were all MVP-class hitters, with Gonzalez and Strawberry probably considered locks for the Hall earlier in their careers. The negative to this list is a very high percentage of them peaked in their 20s and faded rapidly in their 30s. Some were gone from the game quickly, and others, such as Thomas, played at a reduced level. Fielder can take comfort in knowing players like Murray and Clark were productive well into their late 30s, yet out of all of the players on that list, he seems to have less in common with those type of hitters. Odds are pretty good that Fielder will turn out like many on this list. Dominant early and then a substantial drop off in production in his 30s. That means he won't make the Hall.

By: Andy

Andy — Fri, 09 Apr 2010 12:51:12 +0000

Initially yes, I was surprised the list wasn't better.
A note on my blogging here. Many of my posts are carefully researched and written, but many are off the cuff. This is one where I had never thought about it before, had an initial surprised reaction, and decided to quickly post it with the hopes we'd get exactly the discussion we got.
After thinking more about it, it seems likely that Fielder will not amass really large career totals for HR or RBI because of two reasons: a late start compared to many all-time greats and past decline of many similar style players.

By: Micke

Micke — Fri, 09 Apr 2010 08:44:43 +0000

You're surprised the list of his comps isn't better? I'm surprised it isn't worse... There is essentially no way for him to get better, but many ways for him to get worse. He has a good shot at the HoF, but he has a long way to go, still. And a lot of extra pounds to carry on the trip. A *lot*.