Comments on: Intentionally walking the leadoff hitter

By: Baseball-Reference Blog » Blog Archive » More on walking the leadoff hitter

Wed, 07 Apr 2010 13:58:05 +0000

[...] couple of days ago I posted about the Nationals' decision to walk Jimmy Rollins to get to Placido Polanco while loading the bases in the process. The comments are quiet mixed in [...]

By: Johnny Twisto

Johnny Twisto — Tue, 06 Apr 2010 16:55:39 +0000

True, I don't think enough people are aware of Rollins's greatest achievement. He has already led the league in outs four times, and at only 31 years old, he is likely to do it at least once more, becoming the only player to lead the league in outs five (or more) times in a career. Congratulations, J-Roll!

By: 3D

3D — Tue, 06 Apr 2010 16:30:55 +0000

I don't know that I would ever intentionally walk a guy who is consistently among the league leaders in getting himself out, though.

By: daniel

daniel — Tue, 06 Apr 2010 16:28:57 +0000

this is simple they loaded the basees to put the double play in order, and polanco is a good dp candidate. its not a matter of who is a better hitter, its strategy. it didn't pay off, but it was the right call

By: Andy

Andy — Tue, 06 Apr 2010 01:31:09 +0000

True Chad, although none of the 9 guys were pitchers either. Looks like they were all players who got into the 9-hole by coming as part of a double-switch.

For those interested, here are the IBB with runners on 2nd and 3rd, broken down by batting order position, for 2009:

OrderPos
4th 81
8th 75
3rd 65
7th 52
6th 46
5th 43
1st 35
2nd 12
9th 9

By: Chase

Chase — Tue, 06 Apr 2010 00:54:16 +0000

Sorry Andy. I'm used to being able to edit my posts :) I tried posting a table but I think it got caught somewhere (this happens to me sometimes over at PFR, too; I think posts with code in them tend to get trapped, but I'm not sure where; usually at PFR what I'll do is a placeholder post like "hmm" and then edit the post and put in the coded text.") Anyway, I noted that 9 times last year, in the same situation as above, the #9 hitter was intentionally walked; only five of those times came when the #9 guy was a PH.

By: Andy

Andy — Tue, 06 Apr 2010 00:30:17 +0000

Hmm?

By: Chase

Chase — Mon, 05 Apr 2010 23:57:58 +0000

Hmm.

By: Johnny Twisto

Johnny Twisto — Mon, 05 Apr 2010 22:34:11 +0000

His OBP is over .500 in those situations, but that's mostly because of all the IBB. Actually, he has _not_ hit that well with runners on 2nd and 3rd, though of course it's such a small # of PA (138) it doesn't mean much.

By: Andy

Andy — Mon, 05 Apr 2010 22:14:22 +0000

Remember that numbers change a lot when the bases are loaded. A number 2 hitter is a number 2 hitter because he hits well with men on, and there is no easier time to hit than when the bases are loaded.
Still, Ichiro is so good that I doubt you have a 60% chance off getting him out when he bats with runners on second and third. I can't look it up at the moment but his OBP is probably around .500 in those situations, which might he better than the OBP of the #2 guy with the bases loaded.