Comments on: High Hopes For Hughes

By: Afternoon Links « Caught Looking

Afternoon Links « Caught Looking — Tue, 30 Mar 2010 04:23:47 +0000

[...] last, what would a links post be without a link from Baseball Reference? Stat of the Day takes a look at Phil Hughes being awarded the fifth spot in the Yankees rotation and how many other 24-year-old’s in [...]

By: Steve Lombardi

Steve Lombardi — Sat, 27 Mar 2010 21:01:06 +0000

Ditto thanks to Tuna. Nice work!

By: Gerry

Gerry — Fri, 26 Mar 2010 22:22:29 +0000

My thanks to Steve for indulging my curiosity, and to Kahuna Tuna for picking out the tidbits.

By: Kahuna Tuna

Kahuna Tuna — Fri, 26 Mar 2010 19:30:28 +0000

To give a partial answer to Gerry in #2, and based on Steve's chart in #4, on average any given team could be expected to produce an age-24 fourth-season ERA-title-eligible starting pitcher every 21 years or so. (Number of qualifying pitchers = 107; number of team seasons through 2009 = 2,226.) The Yankees, along with the Phillies and Red Sox, have come up with six such pitchers in 109 seasons, a figure that is well within expected limits. (For the Yankees, Allen Russell's 1918 season, in which he posted an 87 ERA+, was not included in Steve's initial list.) Of the original 16 franchises, the Dodgers have exceeded expectations the most (nine pitchers), while the Tigers have done the worst, with just two (George Mullin and Jean Dubuc). The Senators/Rangers franchise has never developed such a pitcher in 49 seasons of play. But the real outlier in this search is the Marlins. We could expect them to have produced one of these pitchers in their 17 seasons. I credit them with 4½ such pitchers (Weathers, 1994; Dempster, 2001; Willis, 2006; Olsen, 2008; and half of Liván's 1999 season). The limited conclusions to be drawn from this appear linked partly to the club's tendency to rely on younger, cheaper starting pitchers and partly to the idiosyncratic criteria used for the search. Without bagging on Steve, I sure wouldn't go around using this little factoid to predict that Rick VandenHurk will qualify for the NL ERA title in 2010. Even though he might. A few more interesting facts from Steve's list: 1. The only two Blue Jays pitchers to qualify are Jim Clancy, 1980 (ERA+ 131), and Dave Stieb, 1982 (ERA+ 138), both of whom are still in the top three for nearly every counting stat in team history. 2. Two of the four Braves pitchers to make the list are Tom Glavine, 1990 (ERA+ 94), and John Smoltz, 1991 (ERA+ 103). 3. The 1960 Cubs had three pitchers on the list — Bob Anderson (ERA+ 92), Glen Hobbie (ERA+ 95), and Don Cardwell (acquired from the Phillies in mid-May; overall ERA+ 87). 4. Pitchers making Steve's list were not necessarily just starting out in the majors — note Dodgers 1955 World Series hero Johnny Podres qualifying in 1957. 5. Over the course of seven seasons, the Royals came up with Danny Jackson, 1986 (ERA+ 132), Mark Gubicza, 1987 (ERA+ 115), and Kevin Appier, 1992 (ERA+ 166). Nice. 6. Dizzy Dean, 1934. Not much to add, except that Diz's seven shutouts that season are tied for most on Steve's list with Jon Matlack, 1974, and Roger Clemens, 1987.

By: DavidRF

DavidRF — Fri, 26 Mar 2010 14:35:37 +0000

A number of memorable Yankees seem to miss the list because of a bit of a technicality. That is, they were younger than 24 or they had played less than 4 years. Enforcing the "equals" instead of a "less than or equals" both of those two makes the list a bit short.

Here are some young starters who fall under that category.

Grim-54
Kucks-56
Terry-60
Stafford-61
Sheldon-61
Bouton-63
Downing-63
Stottlemyre-65

That's just one Yankee era. Plus, Turley was listed before and there is some discrepancy on Whitey Ford's birthdate. He used to be considered 24 in 1953, but not anymore. I think I had read about the revolving door of young Yankees pitchers of the Stengel/Houk era having good seasons in a Bill James book once.

By: Steve Lombardi

Steve Lombardi — Fri, 26 Mar 2010 12:44:52 +0000

Gerry - see:

http://bbref.com/pi/shareit/zPMpf

By: Ramondo

Ramondo — Fri, 26 Mar 2010 05:35:19 +0000

If I were to get a better foundation of knowledge of being a hitting coach, chicks dig the HR's and Cougars dig the batting coaches that teach you how to hit the HR's) do you think I could get a job in the Majors? Sure, I wasn't ever a player which means that my numbers are non-existent which means by numbers sucked. Well, look at Eiland's stats and you get why I am asking this important question.

By: Gerry

Gerry — Fri, 26 Mar 2010 05:18:13 +0000

How long a list would you expect? How many people have been solid members of Yankee rotations over the years? What proportion would you expect to be 24 year olds? Of the 24 year olds, what proportion would you expect to be in exactly their 4th season? Would you expect a lot more than five names? What happens if you run your query for the Red Sox, or Dodgers, or some other team that has been around for a while - do you generally get a lot more than 5? a lot fewer?

By: Zachary

Zachary — Fri, 26 Mar 2010 04:01:02 +0000

A couple of those guys were pretty solid, and another was a Hall of Famer. Not sterling company, but not bad either.

I will say that it's just too weird that the Yankees were once the Baltimore Orioles. That must not be a coincidence ...