Comments on: Splits Tease 2: Pitchers by Run Support, Blyleven and Morris This and that about baseball stats. Tue, 16 Jul 2013 17:01:55 +0000 hourly 1 By: BSK Thu, 18 Mar 2010 23:27:12 +0000 Gerry-

Thanks. I hadn't thought about that. I do wonder sometimes why we see 1-0 games or 20-18 games as often as we SEEM, too. Then, I realize it probably just SEEMS this way and confirmation bias is trickling in. Though, perhaps on a give day or in a given season, some of these scenarios are more likely, and for reasons outside of "one team/guy/whatever responding to the extreme effort of the other."

By: DoubleDiamond Thu, 18 Mar 2010 23:25:48 +0000 I vaguely remember something about the reasons for the one-game series, but I don't remember what it was. My first thought was that there were rainouts earlier in the season that were being made up, but two of the games were in domed stadiums. Also, they were all American League games. (And two pitchers who would be with the Phillies in 1993 got decisions that day. I had almost forgotten that Curt Schilling was once an Oriole.)

By: mikeyjax Thu, 18 Mar 2010 11:43:54 +0000 Thanks guys for the quick reply. Here's another one for the memory banks... This was the Sunday before ASG... why did the AL have all these one game 'series' the Wednesday, the day after the ASG?

By: Gerry Thu, 18 Mar 2010 05:11:04 +0000 If Blyleven (or any other pitcher) has more shutouts in games where his team didn't score much, it might just be that conditions weren't conducive to scoring that day - maybe the wind was blowing in, or the game was played in Shea Stadium, or scoring around the league was down that year, or the other team arranged its rotation so its ace would go against Blyleven, or....

By: BSK Wed, 17 Mar 2010 23:42:31 +0000 Blyleven has considerably more shut-outs in games where his team scored fewer runs. Now, I'm sure a large part of this is due to the fact he was pulled from games in which he was shutting a team out but his team had scored a lot of runs. But, even on the lower end, in games where his team scored 2, 3, or 4 runs, there is a drop. Is this just coincidental? Does this lend any credence to the argument that, staked to a lead, a pitcher pitches differently and might give up runs he wouldn't otherwise? I struggle to think the inverse is true (his team isn't scoring so somehow he is trying harder), but could imagine pitcher's relaxing, even with leads of just 2, 3, or 4 runs. Can this be parsed out from the data? Can you figure out how many times he left a game with a shut-out in tact?

By: Gerry Wed, 17 Mar 2010 22:09:10 +0000 The 20-run game is here:

Blyleven started, pitched 3-and-a-third, gave up 6 runs - but his team, the Angels, had already scored 7, so he couldn't get the loss. The Brewers scored 13 in the 5th.

By: Johnny Twisto Wed, 17 Mar 2010 22:05:11 +0000 See here:
Blyleven didn't pitch well but came out in the 4th with a lead. The Angels' bullpen then got lit up in the 5th. Oddly (or maybe not?) it was three pretty good relievers who combined to give up 13 runs that inning (Minton, Fetters, and Eichhorn -- combined for 43 major league seasons).

By: mikeyjax Wed, 17 Mar 2010 20:46:41 +0000 Please Mr. Tuna tell us bout that 20 run game? Assuming he started - how did he got off the hook for the L? Did he get hurt early?

By: Kahuna Tuna Tue, 16 Mar 2010 23:48:14 +0000 Sorry, Dave — I realized after posting that you were asking about runs allowed in a game. My post #3 addressed the runs scored by Blyleven's teams. Here's that info.

Team allowed 0 runs: Blyleven 67-0 with 60 ShOs and 1 ND
Team allowed 1 run: Blyleven 79-10 with 11 NDs
Team allowed 2 runs: Blyleven 51-21 with 15 NDs
Team allowed 3 runs: Blyleven 43-34 with 20 NDs
Team allowed 4 runs: Blyleven 32-47 with 27 NDs
Team allowed 5 runs: Blyleven 10-45 with 26 NDs
Team allowed 6 runs: Blyleven 2-33 with 21 NDs
Team allowed 7 runs: Blyleven 3-19 with 11 NDs
Team allowed 8 runs: Blyleven 0-15 with 7 NDs
Team allowed 9 runs: Blyleven 0-10 with 2 NDs
Team allowed 10 runs: Blyleven 0-4 with 2 NDs
Team allowed 11 runs: Blyleven 0-5 with 3 NDs
Team allowed 12 runs: Blyleven 0-1 with 3 NDs
Team allowed 13 runs: Blyleven 0-2 with 1 ND
Team allowed 14 runs: Blyleven 0-2
Team allowed 15 runs: Blyleven 0-1
Team allowed 18 runs: Blyleven 0-1
Team allowed 20 runs: Blyleven 0-0 with 1 ND
Overall: Blyleven 287-250 with 60 ShOs and 151 NDs

By: Gerry Tue, 16 Mar 2010 22:18:32 +0000 I wonder whether you could get an example of Simpson by changing the boundaries, e.g., use 0-2, 3-4, and 5+, or maybe 0-3, 4-5, and 6+. This is not to be confused with Suitcase Harry Simpson's paradox,, which is the one where you can never tell what team you'll be playing for next week.