Comments on: 3-homer game early in career

By: gerry

gerry — Wed, 05 Aug 2009 06:27:38 +0000

Merv Connors hit 3 home runs on 17 September 1938. His entire career lasted only 52 games.

By: tomepp

tomepp — Tue, 04 Aug 2009 20:34:07 +0000

Sorry, Andy, but I have to disagree with you there, too. You said, "So was Dave Kingman [one of the most feared sluggers of his era]." I really doubt that most Major League pitchers feared Dave Kingman. Respected his power, yes; feared him at the plate, no. Pitchers knew that Kingman could be pitched around, and would chase bad pitches. They also knew that if they left one hanging out over the plate, Kong would turn it into a souvenir. Still, Kong was an out 70% of the time. However, with Big Mac at the plate, if you tried to throw them in the dust or over his numbers, Mac would patiently work the count and take the free pass to first. He, too, would turn hangers into souvenirs (though sometimes fans had to run to the parking lot to retrieve them), but he was much harder to pitch to outside the zone. In fact, Mac is much more similar to Barry Bonds (whose OBP is .412 if you remove his rediculous IBB totals) than to Kingman. Removing IBBs, Bonds' OPS is 1.019 (.412+.607), McGwire's is .970 (.382+.588), and Kingman's is .773 (.295+.478).

By: tomepp

tomepp — Tue, 04 Aug 2009 20:10:57 +0000

And McGwire's OBP is not due to intentional walks. Even removing IBBs, Mac beats Gwynn in OBP .382 to .376. Surprisingly, Gwynn actually had a higher IBB ratio than Big Mac (Gwynn 1 IBB every 50.4 PA, McGwire 1 IBB every 51.1 PA). While Gwynn hit a ton, he was not really all that great at drawing walks. Gwynn drew 1 BB every 17.1 PA (after removing IBBs), while Mac drew 1 BB every 6.4 PAs.

By: Andy

Andy — Tue, 04 Aug 2009 19:58:47 +0000

I can distinguish him from Dave Kingman. I wasn't comparing them--I simply stated a fact that was true of both guys, which it was.

By: DavidRF

DavidRF — Tue, 04 Aug 2009 19:24:47 +0000

I agree with Tomepp. In fact, I'm a bit perplexed that one of the stat-of-the-day bloggers can't distinguish him from Dave Kingman. OPS+ is indeed the easiest first-glance metric to check. Looking deeper, it wasn't all power. That .394 OBP is higher than Tony Gwynn's.

By: tomepp

tomepp — Tue, 04 Aug 2009 17:21:50 +0000

Update: got in and was able to post reply at Andy's blog. Apparently, you have to own a WordPress blog to post replies, not just have a WordPress account. (I created a blog to test this theory, though I'll probably never actually use it.)

By: tomepp

tomepp — Tue, 04 Aug 2009 17:09:16 +0000

Andy, I tried to post the following comment on your blog, but wordpress kept giving me the error: "You do not own that identity." I voted 'Yes, Definitely'. That is not to say that he’s a top-echelon HoFer, but he’s definitely in. As steveisjewish [at Andy's blog] said, he was one of the most feared sluggers of his day, as his 12 All-Star selections attest to. He also won the Rookie of the Year award while setting a new rookie record for homers (with 49) in 1986, won a Gold Glove award (yes, he did), three Silver Slugger awards, and though he did not win an MVP award (in my opinion, he deserved the 1998 MVP over Sammy Sosa) he finished in the top 25 in MVP voting ten times (including 5 of his first 6 years – *before* his monster home run seasons) and in the top 10 five times. He was also considered an average to above-average defensive first baseman early in his career. The comparison to Kingman is unfair. Compare their stats, McGwire to Kingman (league averages in parentheses): BA .263 (.262) to .236 (.262); OBP .394 (.332) to .302 (.329), SLG .588 (.409) to .478 (.389), OPS .982 (.741) to .780 (.718), OPS+ 162 to 115 (both 100, by definition), HR 583 to 442, TB 3639 to 3191, IBB 150 to 72. Even normalized for era offense, Big Mac’s stats are all above league average, and blow Kong’s out of the water. While OPS+ (on-base plus slugging, normalized for average league offense) is not the perfect measure of offensive production, it is pretty good – better than most “traditional” measures. Only eight HoFers – Babe Ruth (207), Ted Williams (191), Lou Gehrig (179), Rogers Hornsby (175), Mickey Mantle (172), Dan Brouthers (170), Ty Cobb (167), and Jimmy Foxx (162) – have a career OPS+ as high as McGwire’s 162. There are also multiple examples of players who got in primarily for their slugging that cannot match McGwire’s OPS+ numbers, among them are Hank Greenberg (153), Ralph Kiner (149), Harmon Killebrew (143), and most recently Jim Rice (128). Note that of those mentioned, only Greenberg (22) played more seasons than Mac’s 16. Greenberg (13) and Kiner (10) played fewer seasons, and Rice equaled Mac’s season total. So is Mark McGwire a well-rounded, multi-dimensional threat? No. Was he *so* good at what he did that he was one of the best players of his era and deserves to be in the Hall of Fame? Absolutely. Will he be shunned and ostracized from the Hall because of PED allegations? We’ll see… Btw Scab [a replier to Andy's blog]: First, read the post - "considering ONLY his stats”, ignoring the PED issue. Secondly, Mac has not been confirmed as being on "the list", thus far there’s no firm evidence that he juiced, only hearsay and his refusal to talk about it at the Congressional inquiry.

By: Yankeefan25

Yankeefan25 — Tue, 04 Aug 2009 16:32:59 +0000

I only see one hall-of-Famer on the list, Mark McGwire but really isn't a Hall-Of-Famer because in the Mitchell report he was reported tested positive for steroids and I was not surprised he did test positive for steroids because in my opinion no MLB player can hit 70 home runs in one season. When Barry Bonds broke that record when he hit 73 home runs I knew that something was not right, but anyway hitting 3 home runs in one game is pretty amazing in the big leagues.

By: Andy

Andy — Tue, 04 Aug 2009 13:46:59 +0000

Steroids aside, I find the HOF debate on McGwire mind-boggling. Some people are absolutely sure he's a HOF whereas others (like me) find his stats very one-dimensional and limited and think he clearly is not a HOFer. I can't think of another player that is so non-marginal in the sense that everybody seems to think he's either IN or OUT clearly.

Anyway, I put a poll on my personal blog about this. Go here to vote:

http://tradedsets.blogspot.com/2009/08/is-mark-mcgwire-hall-of-famer.html

By: tomepp

tomepp — Tue, 04 Aug 2009 13:39:26 +0000

Not a Hall-of-Famer among them - yet. We'll see if McGwire gets in or if the steroids issue prevents his entry. Lynn has been in the debate of HoF worthiness. Jury's still out for the young guys, though neither Gomes nor Ross have shown that level of talent. Only Lynn and McGwire were even legitimate All-Stars. Leppert was on the 1963 All-Star roster only because Washington had to have a representative. (Leppert was a .262 hitting catcher at the time; he finished the season - one of only 4 ML seasons in his career - batting .237 in 73 games.) If you're looking for a stat to foreshadow greatness, I'd say early 3-HR games is not it...