Comments on: 500+ IP Before Age 23 & An ERA+ >=110 This and that about baseball stats. Tue, 16 Jul 2013 17:01:55 +0000 hourly 1 By: Todd Colegrove Fri, 14 Oct 2011 20:20:59 +0000 Feller...107 wins before he was would his numbers be if he hadn't lost all those prime years shortly after to WWII.....

By: John Autin Wed, 12 Oct 2011 01:42:54 +0000 @23, Chuck -- Everything you wrote there goes for me, too.

BTW, Dave Rozema is another exhibit in my resentful retort to those who think Mark Fidrych's low K rate prove that he could not have stayed successful even if he hadn't been injured.

Rozema came up the year after Fidrych and had immediate success (if not as spectacular) using a similar formula: although Rozema gave up more HRs than the Bird, he also didn't walk people, and he cut off the running game.

As a rookie, Rozema had a 139 ERA in 218 IP (over just 28 games), despite just 3.8 SO/9. So was his .272 BAbip that year "lucky"? Not at all: Rozema finished his career with a .273 BAbip in over 1,100 IP, with a 118 ERA and just 3.6 SO/9.

In his second season, Rozema's K rate plummeted to 2.5 SO/9, yet his ERA+ was still a fine 124. He got hurt in his 3rd year and was never able to be a full-time SP again, but even in that aborted year, he had a 124 ERA+ in about 100 IP, with just 3.1 SO/9.

A low-K pitcher obviously has a tougher path to success, but he <can succeed if he is excellent in other phases -- as Fidrych was.

By: TrivialSteve Tue, 11 Oct 2011 18:00:27 +0000 I had at least heard of Rozema, but Al Marmaux? Two great seasons for the Pirates before the age of 23, then crap (injury?) Its amazing the things you find out on B-R. Like, Rozema is Kirk Gibson's brother-in-law and that his ELO rating currently has him next to Vinegar Bend Mizell.

By: Chuck Tue, 11 Oct 2011 13:15:27 +0000 Hand up on Rozema. I was a high school age Tiger fan in the late 70s so I remember how good he started out.

By: Dvd Avins Tue, 11 Oct 2011 05:30:39 +0000 Given the shorter drought from 1945 until 1956, I think there may be more to it than that. I think there's a steady decrease to be expected, as typical IP per year went down, but there's this anomalous period centered around 1970 that had an unusual number of pitchers who were consistently valuable year after year. This stat is just one more in which that anomaly shows up.

It's not just that there wee top stars like Seaver. There were an unusual number of Reusses and Koosmans. For some reason the difference between what could be achieved by many and what was the evident replacement level was especially large for about 15 years. And I've been trying to figure out a definitive answer for a long time.l

By: John Autin Tue, 11 Oct 2011 03:26:54 +0000 @20, Dvd Avins -- I think what you're really noticing is an absence of any such pitchers whose careers began in the 20-year span from 1985 to 2004.

The rest of the distribution across decades looks pretty normal once you account for scoring averages, wartime and expansion.

By: Dvd Avins Tue, 11 Oct 2011 02:30:10 +0000 What made for so many who started between 1956 and 1984?

By: Luis Gomez Mon, 10 Oct 2011 23:42:54 +0000 "Valenzuela may be attributable to a faulty birth certificate..."

That's not as common as you think it is here in Mexico.

By: nightfly Mon, 10 Oct 2011 23:38:40 +0000 The CG numbers are crazy. On one end of the scale, Christy Mathewson completed 103 of his first 113 starts. Even Tanana had 50% CGs (53 of 106 GS). Then there's King Felix: 104 starts, five complete games. He's up to 18 now, which is 14th among all active pitchers.

By the play index, since integration pitchers have matched or surpassed 18 CG in a single year, 263 different times. The times, they are a-becomin' quite different.

By: Hartvig Mon, 10 Oct 2011 22:02:17 +0000 StephenH @ 9
"This list seems to have a lot of burn outs on it."
Jeff @ 3
"how many of these pitchers burned out early because of it?"

I don't believe the number is as high as it may appear.

Gooden,Blue,McDowell and Eckersley all had their careers altered by substance abuse issues, Wood & Dean's careers injuries were attributable to changes in their motion caused by injuries not related to overwork, Rozema was injured in an on field fight, Tanana & Nolan's injuries may be more attributable to their pitching motion, Valenzuela may be attributable to a faulty birth certificate...

I can't speak to the pre 1920 players but just about everyone post 1920 who's career appeared shortened has issues other than overwork that might have led to their early demise. It's also important to remember that before about 1970 & salaries going way up even among Hall of Famers most players didn't play past 35 years old and among non-HOFer's even earlier than that.