Comments on: Ryan Roberts makes it a full deck of grand slams This and that about baseball stats. Tue, 16 Jul 2013 17:01:55 +0000 hourly 1 By: DoubleDiamond Thu, 06 Oct 2011 23:21:07 +0000 @18 - I wondered if perhaps Roy Halladay was on the mound for that May 27, 2007 game. It turns out he wasn't, but the starter and loser, with an 8-inning complete game that day, was someone else who has a Division Series start in which he ended up as the winning pitcher in this postseason.

By: mosc Thu, 06 Oct 2011 20:28:23 +0000 This post shows everything that is wrong about using WPA to equate to the skill of a player.

By: David Matchett Thu, 06 Oct 2011 20:10:02 +0000 Look at the Arizona infield in this game from August 24, 2011:

1B - Lyle Overbay
2B - Aaron Hill
SS - John McDonald
3B - Ryan Roberts

Now look at this game from May 27, 2007:

There they all are together starting in the same positions for the Blue Jays. I guess Troy Glaus needed a day off. And it was Roberts' last game as a Blue Jay. He played one game the next year with Texas before finding a home in Arizona in 2009.

With the Jays missing October baseball for the 18th straight season I'll be rooting for their 2007 infield (at least for 1 game) to make it all the way.

By: Lawrence Azrin Thu, 06 Oct 2011 18:11:52 +0000 As for the distribution of grand slams in post season play:

In the first 47 years of the WS (1903-1950), there were a total of only two grand slams. Very strange, as @2/ Cheese points out, that there weren't more in the high-scoring 20s/30s. As a partial explanation, I would point out that the seasonal HRs/ team totals were less in the 20s/30s than since WWII, and have risen steadily since then. Plus, the majority of teams had just one big HR hitter (if that).

In the next 18 years (1951-1968), there were 9 grand slams, or about one every other year. Not surprisingly, six were by the Yankees.

Since divisional play in 1969, there has been about one a year, specifically 40 in 43 years. However, before the wild card in 1995, there were only 11 grand slams in 24 years (1969-1993), or less than the rate of the WS of 1951-1968. Since then, there have been 29 (and more?) in 17 years. AS @11/ Jason points out, a post-season grand slam used to be a very special event; since 1995, it happens more years than not.

The usual caveat about "small sample size" applies.

By: The Original Jimbo Thu, 06 Oct 2011 15:17:11 +0000 2 for Thome! And still active nonetheless.

By: Larry R. Thu, 06 Oct 2011 13:30:32 +0000 Jim Palmer must be shaking his head in disbelief right now.

By: Mets Maven Thu, 06 Oct 2011 13:08:59 +0000 @11

I see a different pattern in the data. Before 1951, it happened twice. Then, from 1951 to 1986 it happened 14 times, or once every 2 1/2 years. It happened 33 times between 1987 and 2008, or 1.5 times per year (almost 4x the previous rate). Let's see if this year breaks the record of five, set in 1998. It's still early in the post-season and we already have 3.

By: Frank Thu, 06 Oct 2011 13:04:23 +0000 #11 - The issue here is that there a lot more post-season games. If we're just counting WS, there have been only 7 since 1969. That's a lot closer comparison. Or, even better, if you count 1920 as the first year after the dead ball era, there were 11 WS grand slams in the 49 series played between 1920 and 1968 (inclusive), and 7 in the 41 series played between 1969 and 2010 (inclusive and no WS in 1994). Viewed that way, the pace actually has slowed.

By: Andy Thu, 06 Oct 2011 12:46:26 +0000 #11, yeah that'll happen with a lot more games and a generally higher run-scoring environment. The three times this year is pretty crazy, and we still have at least 15 more post-season games to be played (3 DS finales, and at least 4 ALCS, 4 NLCS, and 4 WS games).

By: Jason Thu, 06 Oct 2011 12:30:27 +0000 Happened 11 times before the divisional format in 1969.

It was a special occurrence, once every six years.

Since 1969, it is happening on average once every postseason.