Comments on: Players with the most top-100 Win Probability Added games in 2011 This and that about baseball stats. Tue, 16 Jul 2013 17:01:55 +0000 hourly 1 By: Johnny Twisto Fri, 05 Aug 2011 20:32:59 +0000 B-R is updated:

They have the play as -.099, taking TB's chance of winning from 50 to 60% (they don't show the extra decimal place in the play-by-play). Only the 8th biggest play of the game. 4th biggest non-scoring play. 3rd biggest play at the time it happened.

By: Neil L. Fri, 05 Aug 2011 17:40:46 +0000 @24
Johnny T., I, too, have been awaiting the BBRef WPA for yesterday's event with bated breath to see if you get the Karnak award.

A WPA 0f -0.098 doesn't seem punitive enough, looking at Rajai Davis's base-running blunder. But I guess that shows the difference between seeing something as a fan and seeing the same thing statistically with no emotional attachment.

Of course, one other thing concerning Davis and the assigned WPA. I 'm sure the win-expectancy tables assume an average baserunner, which Davis is not. He's at the top of the league in steals and has stolen both 2nd and 3rd in the same inning 8 separate times this year.

The point is, if he had been a little more patient, he probably could have stolen second and maybe third during Escobar's at bat anyway. But to get erased on a pick-off, when your whole role with the team right now is a designated pinch runner. Enough! I'll get over it.

If "If's and but's" were candy and nuts, we'd all have a Merry Christmas. I don't see Phils, Red Sox or Yanks fans having to type "If's and but's".

By: Johnny Twisto Fri, 05 Aug 2011 17:00:19 +0000 Where are yesterday's games?!

Anyway, since B-R is coming up short, I checked at Fangraphs. Their numbers may be marginally different because of different park factors or something. They say the Davis pickoff improved TB's chances of winning from 49.8% to 59.6%, so -.098 WPA.

By: Neil L. Fri, 05 Aug 2011 15:39:27 +0000 @22
Whiz, first paragraph. Heavy duty!

I can only get a portion of Tango's win expectancy table, outside of the book, I think. On his site there a "crucial situation" win expectancy table, covering the seventh inning on and tied or up/down by a run, but that's all.

Philbirnbaum has a comma-delimited, text posting from which one could calculate win expectancy for every inning, number of outs and score. It would have to be pasted into a spreadsheet and cleaned up a bit. He says it was generated from Retrosheet data covering 1979-1990, but it would miss the higher-offence era.

I guess I need The Book. A dynamic win expectancy table that had minor correction factors for the current run-scoring environment wuld be the best, I guess. But at that point, maybe we're talking super-computers.

By: Whiz Fri, 05 Aug 2011 15:10:59 +0000 Neil,

I generated my own win expectancy tables using the play-by-play data from Retrosheet, mainly because I wanted it updated for the current run environment. I was using them to determine the value of different save opportunities, and develop an alternative stat to saves (WPA in save situations).

Tango et al. describe it here: and give the table for the 6th inning -- you have to buy The Book to get the rest!

By: Neil L. Fri, 05 Aug 2011 13:54:16 +0000 Whiz and JT, thanks for bring me up to speed on WPA.

Whiz, if I may, what are "my tables" that you refer to in #16? I'm going to try and look up Tango's win expectancy table and download a copy of it.

By: Whiz Fri, 05 Aug 2011 03:55:48 +0000 I checked some games in 1968 and in 2000, and in the same situation the win expectancy was different -- for example, in 1968, a team that was tied going into the bottom of the 9th had a 61% chance of winning, instead of about 65% in 2000. That makes sense since it was a lower run environment -- those numbers suggest that there was only a 22% chance of scoring at least one run in any given inning in 1968, compared to 30% in 2000.

So the win expectancy on bb-ref does change from one year to the next. The numbers seem to vary within a season, so perhaps there are park effects, too. Looking at Colorado in 2000, they had a 68% chance of winning when starting the bottom of the 9th tied, so apparently at Coors Field in 2000 there was a 36% chance of scoring in any given inning.

By: Whiz Fri, 05 Aug 2011 03:44:16 +0000 JT, yes, you gain 15% by getting the visitors out in the top of the 9th or later inning. That's because there's a 30% chance of scoring a run -- in which case you win right away -- plus you win half of the other 70% later in the game.

By: Johnny Twisto Fri, 05 Aug 2011 03:22:20 +0000 Whiz, so your tables are showing that the home team has about a 65+% chance of winning the game if it clears the top of an extra inning? That seems high but I guess I'm not thinking about it right.

I'll blame it on my air conditioner which doesn't seem to be cooling efficiently, even though the temperatures dropped today.

By: Jeff Fri, 05 Aug 2011 03:19:59 +0000 @9:

I've heard of Art Shamsky before although I haven't heard the name in years. So I looked up his stats and it seems the guy had a lot of pop in his bat.

He didn't have a nickname though, and based on his record-setting performance listed here I'm going to call him Art "Blam" Shamsky.