Comments on: Adam Dunn and twice as many strikeouts as hits This and that about baseball stats. Tue, 16 Jul 2013 17:01:55 +0000 hourly 1 By: Fireworks Fri, 29 Jul 2011 16:18:55 +0000 @ Mike

I wasn't trying to denigrate your query as lacking value. What I'm saying is that firstly the Play Index is designed to be useful for more than churning out mere trivia that is of no actual analytical value. Your query is interesting (to me, even), but it's 100% trivia. It's a 'toy' query.

I don't subscribe to the Play Index, and if I did, I'm certain I'd use it more as a toy than a tool, and while I am sure that there are others that do more toying than tooling, at its core it's supposed to be a tool.

Additionally, it's a tough (impossible) query to do, I'm almost certain.

By: Mike Thu, 28 Jul 2011 17:33:34 +0000 Fireworks,

I thought that stat might be difficult to get through the play index but your second comment is just an opinion.

By: Fireworks Thu, 28 Jul 2011 17:16:52 +0000 @ 20 Steve

I was totally serious though. Totally serious.

By: Johnny Twisto Thu, 28 Jul 2011 05:27:59 +0000 evenutally someone has to swing the bat

Not if they keep being walked.

the opposing team is saying we'd rather take our chances with Ray Lankford or Brian Jordan.

Two very good ballplayers. And this is somehow a knock against the .180-hitting McGwire?

By my calculations (based on BaseRuns and wOBA), McGwire created 51 runs that season and made 252 outs. That's .203 runs per out. The NL that season scored .178 runs per out, making McGwire an above-average offensive player. Now, the NL average includes pitcher hitting. If you want to remove that (which OPS+ does), he gets closer to average, but still probably above it.

There are multiple numbers on this site which estimate how many runs a player was worth, and they all say McGwire was a bit above average that season. If you disagree, that's fine, but you need to provide more evidence to support your position than falsely claiming he can't score except via homer. If you think his walks were worth less than other players', how much do you think they were worth? How much did they hurt the Cards, who finished 5th in OBP, 5th in SLG, but 4th in runs scored?

By: Timmy P Thu, 28 Jul 2011 04:08:47 +0000 @19 The value of McGwire's walks is that he doesn't make an out Value to who or what? Winning the game? Maybe, but evenutally someone has to swing the bat, and the opposing team is saying we'd rather take our chances with Ray Lankford or Brian Jordan.

By: Steve Thu, 28 Jul 2011 01:44:58 +0000 19 It was a joke dude.

By: Fireworks Wed, 27 Jul 2011 23:32:19 +0000 As the popularity of this blog increases...

@ 7 Mike

I'm pretty sure that's a tough sort of random stat to get. The first purpose of the Play Index is to be provide useful information and that stat doesn't qualify.

@ McGwire's walks

The value of McGwire's walks is that he doesn't make an out. Not making an out is always, always, always of value to your team. The exceptions would be if you have a guy behind you going up there with a wet noodle (the pitcher) and certain situations where the walk doesn't hurt the defense at all (walking, intentionally or not, a better hitter for a worse hitter when the winning run isn't forced up a base is a classic example).

A better way to consider the way advanced stats values a walk is not to value the walk itself, but value that an out was not made. It is not perhaps as intuitive to do so but it gets to the heart of the matter. Making as few outs as possible is the best thing a hitter can do on a daily basis.

@ 17 Steve

A disgrace to whom? You? Baseball? His family? Himself? The fine Arizona Diamondbacks organization that "gave up" on him before he embarked on a bounce-back year this year after a slow start, demonstrating that he can in fact make contact with the baseball more often than he had in previous seasons? To Bud Selig? Oh my God, is Reynolds disgracing Selig?!?!

@ Andy

Nice post. Dunn's season has been mesmerizing. He was always a good TTO guy but the evaporation of power, the lack of hits, the bad K rate evolving to become terribad... just mesmerizing.

Someone with a better head for numbers (or less lazy) than I should take Dunn's current season and adjust his stats just based upon 'fixing' his HR rate that the average of his last five seasons or something and see what we get then in the SLG/OPS department. I know it all ties together but I'm interested in how much of his lack of productivity, relative to league average, is from the evaporation of power alone.

I know a couple years back someone--maybe it was you, Andy--ran the numbers on Ortiz' stats and showed that the slight decrease in RBI totals correlated almost perfectly with the significant (at the time) decrease in HRs--he was just failing to knock himself in that extra whatever times a year, but he hadn't much changed his ability to knock in his teammates.

By: Cheese Wed, 27 Jul 2011 19:45:20 +0000 8 hits total for Dunn this month, 9 in June for a .115 avg (17/148). Yikes.

By: Steve Wed, 27 Jul 2011 19:39:47 +0000 Mark Reynolds is a disgrace.

By: george barnard Wed, 27 Jul 2011 19:08:58 +0000 No second basemen. Not surprising I suppose.