Comments on: What will Adam Dunn’s final numbers be? This and that about baseball stats. Tue, 16 Jul 2013 17:01:55 +0000 hourly 1 By: Mustachioed Repetition Tue, 05 Jul 2011 03:35:44 +0000 Interesting. April's total doesn't mean much, since once upon a time the season didn't start until the middle of the month. But I wonder why there'd be so many more in September. I suppose it could be a fluke, though it seems to have some significance. I can't believe that expanded rosters would account for all that (e.g. Eric Milton's no-hitter vs the Angels(?) circa 1999).

By: Kahuna Tuna Mon, 04 Jul 2011 09:00:00 +0000 Aren't there more no-hitters in September, than any other month?

Yes. Since 1901, there have been 33 no-hitters in April, 41 in May, 37 in June, 31 in July, 30 in August, 53 in September, and 4 in October. Saturdays are the most frequent day of the week for no-hitters, by a fairly wide margin.

By: Mustachioed Repetition Sun, 03 Jul 2011 23:27:45 +0000 I think there is truth that the ball travels further when it is warmer and more humid. It's physics. Jason's #31 shows a clear, albeit minor, trend over tens of thousands of PA.

In re Dunn specifically, people are scrounging for reasons to explain his monthly splits, when most likely it's just random variation. I'll bet there's also a lot of variation in his splits by day of the week. If you saw the splits, I'm sure you could come up with BS explanations (his OPS on Tuesdays is 100 points lower; well, it must be because the air travel is tough on his big body**). But that's just meaningless ex post facto conclusions derived from raw data and not from really knowing anything about the player/person.

** I have no idea what his daily splits are.

By: Neil L. Sun, 03 Jul 2011 21:14:48 +0000 @31
Jason W., very nicely done!

I don't think the slight increase in OPS in the summer months is statistically significant, although you based it on five years. Certainly it doesn't explain Adam Dunn's anomalous July split.

By: Nash Bruce Sun, 03 Jul 2011 21:05:07 +0000 LOL, thanks Neil(29) 🙂 But, to borrow from a recent comment, "neither Tom Cruise, nor Peter Graves, have ever been in my kitchen."
@Jason: Thanks for accepting. Interesting numbers!
One could also use these numbers, as evidence of the influence of September call-ups. "One of those things we all 'know' is true because it's been said forever", is that pitchers have an advantage, when facing a particular hitter, for the first time. (Which I believe to be true, having never played baseball myself, lol.)
Aren't there more no-hitters in September, than any other month?

By: Jason W Sun, 03 Jul 2011 16:01:24 +0000 I accept! 🙂

"Ball carries well when it gets hotter" sounds suspiciously to me like one of those things we all "know" is true because it's been said forever, and because it's backed up by a few players who do have great stats in the summer months (like Sosa and Dunn), even though there are probably plenty of guys who don't do well in those months (but we never hear about them).

With that in mind, here are monthly OPS splits for the AL from 2006-2010:

M/A: .776/.731/.731/.770/.736
May: .768/.771/.719/.766/.738
June: .785/.764/.779/.751/.749
July: .786/.760/.766/.756/.742
Aug: .773/.765/.777/.780/.726
S/O: .772/.770/.764/.758/.717

The average of each of these results (which is not the actual OPSs, but I'm too lazy to try and compute all of those individually) is:

M/A: .749
May: .752
June: .766
July: .762
Aug: .764
S/O: .756

So, at least with this fairly small sample size, it does seem that hitters start off slow and then "heat up" in June/July/August, with a slight drop-off in September. Weather might be a factor, but another thing you tend to hear is that at the start of the season, pitchers are "ahead" of batters and it takes a while for hitters to get used to standing in and recognizing pitches.

OK, I'm done. Someone else take it from here!

By: Neil L. Sun, 03 Jul 2011 15:21:29 +0000 @29

Nash, get it right. "If you choose to ACCEPT this mission." Peter Graves/Tom Cruise will never forgive you. 🙂

By: Nash Bruce Sun, 03 Jul 2011 09:40:25 +0000 woo-hoo, do I, at 6 hours behind EDT, actually get a chance to mention an, until now, unmentioned possibility, to Adam Dunn's July dominance?? 🙂
(And, I ask "advance forgiveness" from the BBREF crowd- I know that I have all of the tools to do the actual research....but not the time!!)
It's the warm weather. The ball doesn't carry as well, during the early part of the season. Sammy Sosa, had the same thing (and I am so avoiding discussing, artificially inflated steroid numbers) going on, years ago, I believe??- when June/July came around, he 'got hot'- but it was actually, the ball, that 'got hot'. The ball carries much better, in the heat, and humidity.
OK, so Dunn is lights out, historically, only in July, and not June- but, maybe, that is attributable to heat fatigue, just starting, to set in, amongst the pitchers.....feel free to add on, to this thought:)
"Season exhaustion", I remember, as not being so uncommon, among hitters, many years ago, before steroids made baseball much easier(ok, I mentioned it!!) for them. Cal Ripken, stands out, in my mind, as one player, in particular. BAL had a couple hideous seasons, in '88, and '91, yet, the season after both of those seasons, the Orioles had remarkable turnarounds. I seem to remember, that one major reason, that BAL, did not make the playoffs, in either season, is that Ripken fell off of the map, at the end of both seasons. I even seem to remember, that, towards the end of the season, in his batting stance, he would not be holding his bat, as straight up and down, as compared to the start of the season.
So....these are the random observations......have at it!! (If you choose this mission, Lol.)

By: Doug Sun, 03 Jul 2011 07:16:55 +0000 @20.

A possible reason for Dunn's performance turnaround in July is the all-star break. Some players may really get a little jump from having some extended physical and mental relaxation.

And, very surprisingly to me, Dunn does get his All-Star break. Here's a man who has hit 38+ home runs every year for the last 7 years and yet did NOT go to the All-Star game in ANY of those seasons. Hard to fathom that

By: Timmy P Sun, 03 Jul 2011 03:01:11 +0000 Dunn or Mark Reynolds? I take Reynolds, more upside. BTW he hit 2 homers tonight.