Comments on: Players to hit 40+ homers after the age of 29 who never did it before This and that about baseball stats. Tue, 16 Jul 2013 17:01:55 +0000 hourly 1 By: Players With 16+ HR In Yankees First 45 Games Of A Season | Mon, 23 May 2011 13:08:42 +0000 [...] Curtis’ 2011 is a lot like Ryne Sandberg’s 1990 – just one of those HR spike years at age 30?  In any event, it will be interesting to see if Granderson keeps up his pace this season.  Can [...]

By: Fireworks Wed, 18 May 2011 07:12:37 +0000 Not one person mentioned that Granderson is likely to join this list.

At least no one will say Grandy is roidin'.

By: Craig Tue, 17 May 2011 17:19:55 +0000 Let me say this right now: Jose Bautista is NOT on steroids. This is merely Dwayne Murphy's hitting approach being put to work. Murphy encourages his hitters to look for one pitch and hit it hard. That's how Jose approached hitting last year, and it worked. He loads up early and that's where his power comes from. He developed an excellent eye because he sees pitches earlier than most. Nothing more than these things.

By: Malcolm Tue, 17 May 2011 11:31:57 +0000 Palmeiro and Giambi were juiced, and Bautista is a little suspicious, but I'm surprised no one else is linked to steroids. (Besides Big Papi, who was a mistake)

By: Johnny Twisto Tue, 17 May 2011 01:23:57 +0000 I still love it, but I can't get as excited about players like this.

"Play worse, or I won't enjoy you as much!"

By: chesse Tue, 17 May 2011 01:00:05 +0000

By: Dan Berman4 Mon, 16 May 2011 20:25:31 +0000 It is hard to take Bautista's numbers without big grain of salt. For me, the steroid era's shadow continues to darken the game. I still love it, but I can't get as excited about players like this.

By: John Autin Mon, 16 May 2011 20:24:31 +0000 @34, Rogerbusby -- Good idea, adding that percentage. Thanks.

By: rogerbusby Mon, 16 May 2011 19:03:45 +0000 @ John Autin #16

Just throwing this out there. The 2nd column is 100 game seasons played at each age - this is a semi-arbitrary cutoff, the fewest games played in a 40 HR season is, I believe, in the 110 area.

AGE 100GM SEASs 40 HR SEASs %%%
23 856 15 1.75%
24 1247 16 1.28%
25 1585 19 1.19%
26 1764 31 1.75%
27 1848 30 1.62%
28 1758 31 1.76%
29 1649 31 1.88%
30 1515 32 2.11%
31 1288 22 1.71%
32 1087 18 1.66%

By: Johnny Twisto Mon, 16 May 2011 17:48:27 +0000 I don't have absolute proof, but I think that HR power tends to peak just a little later than general player value. ... Whereas most players decline in win value by age 30, their HR production tends to last longer than other skills.

I think you're right. No links to other studies but I'm sure it's been looked at more in-depth and similar results were found.

I was always surprised that Steve Finley continued to play without being heavily criticized for possibly using steroids.

He didn't break any records, so why would anyone care?

Roger Maris 1961. His prior career high was 39, which then shot up to 61 and right back down to 33. Clearly, by a lot of people's standards, he had to be on steroids!

"Going by the arguments of the steroid lynchers, we have absolutely no reason to consider Maris to not have been on steroids.

- Went from 16-to-39-to-61 home runs.
- Dramatic improvement in power was immediately after Dianabol, the first widely available steroid, was introduced.
- Broke down physically, done as a full-timer by his 30th birthday.
- Flipped off the fans and generally became hostile to the point where the Yankees questioned his courage and the media turned against him.
- Died very early from cancer.
- Was never tested for steroid use. "

(poached from post 31 here: )