Comments on: 0-5 Success This and that about baseball stats. Tue, 16 Jul 2013 17:01:55 +0000 hourly 1 By: John Fri, 08 Apr 2011 17:09:16 +0000

By: John Fri, 08 Apr 2011 17:08:21 +0000 I can't seem to make a link anymore. How annoying

By: John Fri, 08 Apr 2011 17:06:51 +0000 Well, in case anyone cares...

I wasted a bunch of time yesterday trying to determine if WHEN your five-game losing streak is, during the season actually matters, with regards to making the playoffs. The answer, as we probably all expect, is that it doesn't, at all.

This graph, which shows the percentage chance of making the playoffs if you lose five games in a row starting with game #X, looks like pure noise to me.

Now, if you have a six-game losing streak, I'd imagine the overall percentage would be slightly worse, and so forth.

By: John Q Fri, 08 Apr 2011 15:26:56 +0000 When I was looking at the '83 Pirates I noticed they started off the season 5-0.

Like I said people make way too many assumptions about the first two-four weeks of the season.

If you've played fantasy baseball you know what I mean. There's always a bunch of guys that panic when a good player performs poorly and either trades them or releases them outright. I remember David Ortiz was dropped in one of my leagues because he started out poorly. I think Ortiz was a 7-9th round pick and he was just dropped outright. Someone else picked him up and It ended up that Ortiz hit 32 HR and 100rbi for the season.

By: Sean Fri, 08 Apr 2011 12:02:37 +0000 If it was mid-July with 70 games left and Boston was 4 games out---there would be NO concern as long as they were healthy.

They are healthy and have 156 games left to make up that -4.

Because it's the ONLY 6 games played thus far, it sounds bigger than it is-----but unless people think that they were completely wrong about this team's ability to win 95+ games, it's silly to be concerned with anything you weren't concerned with before.

Francona said it best. 'We'd better start acting like a good team.'

By: John Q Fri, 08 Apr 2011 04:47:08 +0000 Double Diamond,

Good one on the '83 Phillies, I totally forgot they changed manager mid way through the season.

That '83 Phillies was one of the strangest WS teams. They basically won because of Mike Schmidt's great season and then John Denny had a crazy career year. Carlton was very good and Joe Morgan & Al Holland had good seasons but other than that there wasn't a heck of a lot.

Pete Rose didn't hit any HR that year and had a .316 on base with a .286 slugging percentage. I can't think of another WS team 1b that had such terrible numbers. And the back-up was a 40 year old Tony Perez who had a .316 on base percentage.

The thing I remember about that year was that the Pirates were in 1rst place as late as September 16-17th and then the Phillies came out of nowhere and won 11 in a row and went 14-2 to take the division.

That Pirates team was kind of the last hurrah for those 70's era Pirate teams. Parker, Bibby, Easler and Hebner would be gone after the season Stargell, Moreno, B. Robinson, and Milner left after the '82 season and then Berra, Lacy & Tekulve would be gone after 1984 season.

They would struggle for the next 5 seasons until Bonds, Bonilla, and Drabeck took over the show

By: DoubleDiamond Fri, 08 Apr 2011 03:15:12 +0000 @18 - The two 6-game losing streaks by the Marlins in May 2003 are what probably led to the firing of their manager Jeff Torborg and the hiring of Jack McKeon.

Since I knew that the 1983 World Series losing Phillies had also fired their manager in mid-season, despite being in first place at the time, I wondered if this had occurred during or just following a long losing streak. What I discovered is that this was not the case, but the Phillies did have three 6-game losing streaks that year. Two were under original manager Pat Corrales, and the other was under replacement manager Paul Owens.

The Phillies also had one of those rare 163-game seasons that year - not because of a tiebreaker game at the end but because of a tie. The tie was in a game against the Expos. Philadelphia and Montreal playing to a tie in 1983 would not have sounded strange - provided, of course, that the teams were the Flyers and the Canadiens.

By: Don Malcolm Thu, 07 Apr 2011 22:41:50 +0000 Raphy,
Thanks for the clarification. It seems that if one chooses your option and sorts by "date" (which is the default), the full report comes up. When one sorts by "Wins" or "Losses," however, a truncated report along the lines of what I described appears. There are some nuances there, and thanks again for helping me figure them out!

By: Raphy Thu, 07 Apr 2011 21:36:15 +0000 @31 - Don - I don't have any insider tools. To create the list which is linked to in the post -

1) Use the steak finder:
2) Set "Games in Streak" to 5.
3) Set "Year" to All Years.
4) Set "Team" to All Teams
5) Choose "From Beginning of Season Only"
6) Click on "Find Streaks"

By: BSK Thu, 07 Apr 2011 20:44:30 +0000 A few more thoughts...

They've yet to play at home, which is at least slightly encouraging.

Then again, they have looked pretty crappy. It is one thing to lose 6 games but look good while doing it (playing well, remaining competitive, excelling in at least some areas). From what I've seen (and I haven't watched every game in entirety), they've looked bad. Until today, they hadn't really gotten a decent pitching performance, they put some runs on the board in the first few games but have otherwise looked out of whack on offense, and the bullpen has been a disaster.

On the one hand, all of these areas are naturally going to struggle at some pont in the season. Maybe it is better to have them all struggle at once, blow 6 games, then have each one struggle seperately and lose half your games over an extended stretch.

On the other hand, I might just be rationalizing.