Comments on: Fantasy Tips (3/30/2011) This and that about baseball stats. Tue, 16 Jul 2013 17:01:55 +0000 hourly 1 By: Mr. Dave Thu, 31 Mar 2011 01:20:35 +0000 The guy I've been all over in fantasy leagues is Brad Emaus. Double digit power/steals in the minors, as well as having more walks than strikeouts. He's not as obscure as he was a week and a half or so when I had my draft, but considering he will be starting for the Mets at second base, not too many people seem to know who he is. If it's late the draft, take a shot on him. He's got a lot more upside than most of the players that would go in the last couple of rounds.

By: John Autin Wed, 30 Mar 2011 21:56:09 +0000 Good luck, Doug!

My only words of fantasy wisdom, learned at great pains over the many years that I did fantasy baseball:
-- No matter how prepared you are, many things will happen during the draft and during the season that you will kick yourself for not anticipating.
-- All fantasy outcomes are 99% luck ... even when you win.

By: Doug Wed, 30 Mar 2011 21:30:39 +0000 John Autin you are completely on the money. He has a very small sample size to take a shot on. It really is a very high risk very hi reward. He's a dollar player and he may wind up hurting whip and era more than helping. He lacks an out pitch against lefties; they have .363/.411/.481 Maybe a shot on him in NL only leagues but if you don't have any other options or just want to pray for some upside.

I have my fantasy auction draft tonight. Wish me luck.

By: John Autin Wed, 30 Mar 2011 21:14:02 +0000 Whenever I see a good K/9 with a high WHIP, I take the K rate with a grain of salt, for two reasons. One, that guy isn't striking out the same percentage of batters faced as someone with the same K/9 but a lower WHIP. Two, the more batters you face, the better your chances of getting to one who are easiest to strike out.

Additional reasons to be wary of Esmil Rogers:
-- His 8.3 K/9 in 2010 came in a relatively small sample, 72 IP. His career minor-league K rate is 7.1 K/9 (along with a 1.40 WHIP).
-- We all know it's easier to compile a high K rate as a reliever than as a starter. Rogers pitched 33.2 innings as a reliever last year, with 9.9 K/9; but as a starter, he averaged 6.8 K/9 in 38.1 IP.

In sum, I'm not impressed with the quality of this tip.