Comments on: 5+ Quality Start Losses In 2010 This and that about baseball stats. Tue, 16 Jul 2013 17:01:55 +0000 hourly 1 By: dukeofflatbush Wed, 23 Mar 2011 18:37:59 +0000 @ # 10
2 Kevins
Kevin Ritz for the 1996 Rockies:
17-11, 5.28 ERA, 213 IP, 236 H, 105 BB, 105 SO, 1.60 WHIP
Kevin Brown for the 1996 Marlins:
17-11, 1.89 ERA, 233 IP, 187 H, 33 BB, 159 S0, 1.066 WHIP

By: Scott V. Wed, 23 Mar 2011 16:31:32 +0000 17: Maybe some sort of standard deviation stat would be helpful for that issue?

By: John Autin Wed, 23 Mar 2011 15:28:03 +0000 Duke @13 -- Your post shows how an annual run-support number can be misleading. Arizona averaged 5.12 R/G for Johnson in '99 -- not far below their season average of 5.60, and seemingly good enough for a pitcher with a 2.48 ERA in 271 IP to win at least 20. But it was feast or famine for Johnson: he got 6+ runs in 15 starts, but 0-2 runs in 10 starts, including those 4 straight shutouts you mentioned. Of Johnson's 9 losses that year, 2 were by 1-0, 2 by 2-0, and 2 by 2-1.

By the way, the Cy Young voting that season was something of a precedent for the awards given to Greinke in 2008 and Felix Hernandez in 2010. Mike Hampton went 22-4 -- 5 more wins and 5 fewer losses than Johnson, with a healthy 2.90 ERA (3rd in the NL), and for a division winner as well -- but Johnson rightly dominated the 1st-place votes, 20 to 11.

By: Lawrence Azrin Wed, 23 Mar 2011 14:04:30 +0000 @10/Dupp - great comparison, thanks for the work. In 2000, Pedro Martinez had one of the great pitching seasons ever (14th in WAR since 1900), but his W-L record was "only" 18-6, and he was "only" 4th in Wins in the AL.

When talking about the greatest pitching rotations ever, the Braves in the 90s were great, but also the Orioles in the late 60s/early 70s, and the Indians in the late 40s/early 50s. This has probably been discussed in these parts before.

By: panrell Wed, 23 Mar 2011 12:11:26 +0000 The Phillies won't be worse because the rotation is overreated, they will be worse because their offense will be comatose. This coming from a lifelong Phillies fan.

By: Albert7 Wed, 23 Mar 2011 04:15:41 +0000 I think Braden and a few others with high ERA's prove that the guidelines for what a quality start is need to be changed a bit.

As for RJ at post 13. He had a bat, he could have helped himself! ;o)

By: dukeofflatbush Wed, 23 Mar 2011 02:16:33 +0000 When I read the header of this post I immediately thought of the BIG UNIT in 1999, his first year in AZ.
I never did any real research, but I always imagined his stretch of 5 consecutive starts (June 25-July 15) was the worst it could get for a pitcher. The absolute worst luck in 5 consecutive starts.
Johnson pitched lights out, but ended up 0-4.
His line was:
6/25 CG, 9IP, 5H, 1ER, 2BB, 14K; L 0-1
6/30 CG, 8IP, 7H, 2ER, 0BB, 17K; L 0-2
7/05 CG, 8IP, 4H, 1ER, 4BB, 12K; L 0-1
7/10 GS, 7IP, 3H, 1ER, 4BB, 11K; L 0-2
7/15 GS, 8IP, 6H, 0ER, 2BB, 8K; ND

That's 40 IP in 5 starts. 62Ks .9WHIP .184BA .513OPS 1.13 ERA
His team was shutout 4 times and no-hit twice.

In his next five starts his team was nearly as bad as he was good.
He averaged over 8IP a start, going 7 innings only once while allowing only 8 ER, for a 1.76 ERA to go with 54 SO.

So over those 10 starts, the UNIT averaged over 8 innings, only pitching 7 twice, while striking out 116 and not allowing more than 2 runs in any game. Yet went 2-5.

By: Dupp Tue, 22 Mar 2011 21:45:22 +0000 Just to clarify, my comment on the Phillies rotation in post #10 was not in response to John Autin's post in #9, which I had not yet read when I made the post. The Phillies were in my head because I recently heard a neanderthal on sports talk radio claiming Oswalt, Lee and Hamels weren't very good because of their 13-13, 13-12, and 12-11 W-L records. Autin's points are valid and I agree they probably won't quite live up to expectations. I just think it's because of the factors I mention in post #11, not because of their misleading W-L records.

By: Dupp Tue, 22 Mar 2011 21:40:33 +0000 Autin, I agree that the Phillies will not be as dominant as people think. I expect them to win 90, but I doubt they'll be the 100+ win juggernaut people think.

People are already saying they're the best rotation we've ever seen, but even if you take the great years all four of those guys had in 2010 and combine them, they don't quite match up to the 1997 Braves.

Even if they all stay healthy, it's doubtful the four of them will put up the same combined numbers they managed last year. You've gotta figure Lee can't possibly repeat that insane K/BB ratio and WHIP. Oswalt had the best WHIP of his career thanks to a very low H/9 ratio, which you'd think would go up. Hamels had his best K/9 ratio since the year he was called up. And last year even the great Halladay had arguably his best season since 2003.

Don't get me wrong, I think they'll be very good. Even if all four of them take a minor step back, it's still likely the best rotation in baseball this year. But I agree that their real 2011 performances will probably fall a bit short of the hype, at least from a historical perspective.

By: Dupp Tue, 22 Mar 2011 21:32:39 +0000 Felix had one of the all-time great hard-luck seasons.

It's amusing to me that I've heard some people say the Phillies staff is overrated because Lee, Oswalt and Hamels were barely .500 last year. Oswalt had terrible run support in Houston and Lee had one of the great K/BB ratios ever.

For those who still put a ton of stock into W-L records, here's a fun fact:

Livan Hernandez had a stretch of 35 starts from April 2008 through May 2009, where he put up the following numbers:

35 GS, 197.2 IP, 283 H, 147 R, 139 ER, 54 BB, 84 SO, 31 HR, 6.33 ERA, 1.71 WHIP, 13 QS, 12.9 H/9, 3.8 K/9, 1.6 K/BB

Now here's what Felix Hernandez did in his magnificent season last year:

34 GS, 249.2 IP, 194 H, 80 R, 63 ER, 70 BB, 232 SO, 17 HR, 2.27 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 30 QS, 7.0 H/9, 8.4 K/9, 3.3 K/BB

Of course Felix went 13-12. Well, guess what Livan's record was during that above stretch? That's right. 13-12.

One pitcher performing about as well as anyone possibly can, and another performing about as horribly as you can while still somehow remaining in the rotation. And their records were identical.

If that doesn't say it all about W-L in today's game, I don't know what does.