Comments on: One-Run Games http://www.baseball-reference.com/sotd/archives/711 This and that about baseball stats. Sat, 10 Jan 2009 03:38:19 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.6.2 By: kingturtle http://www.baseball-reference.com/sotd/archives/711#comment-5002 kingturtle Mon, 07 Jul 2008 15:00:07 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/sotd/?p=711#comment-5002 I semi-remember seeing/reading on TV or in the newspaper in the early 1990s someone of alleged importance saying that W/L record of 1-run games wasn't as important as sheer number of 1-run games in a season. The person alleged that the higher total of 1-run games in a season suggested the team had a better potential of success the following year. The thinking was that if a team is in that many close games, they are just one or two roster moves away from tipping the balance. Does anyone remember this idea that was put forth? Is there any statistical support for this notion? I semi-remember seeing/reading on TV or in the newspaper in the early 1990s someone of alleged importance saying that W/L record of 1-run games wasn’t as important as sheer number of 1-run games in a season. The person alleged that the higher total of 1-run games in a season suggested the team had a better potential of success the following year. The thinking was that if a team is in that many close games, they are just one or two roster moves away from tipping the balance.

Does anyone remember this idea that was put forth?

Is there any statistical support for this notion?

]]> By: David in Toledo http://www.baseball-reference.com/sotd/archives/711#comment-4994 David in Toledo Sun, 06 Jul 2008 21:51:53 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/sotd/?p=711#comment-4994 That is, the 1954 Indians THREW 77 complete games. . . . That is, the 1954 Indians THREW 77 complete games. . . .

]]> By: David in Toledo http://www.baseball-reference.com/sotd/archives/711#comment-4993 David in Toledo Sun, 06 Jul 2008 21:51:25 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/sotd/?p=711#comment-4993 The first and third teams with the BEST record in one-run games were managed by Earl Weaver, and beat their pythagorean expectation of a season's record by 7 and 4 games, respectively. The second and fourth teams with the BEST record were managed by Fred Clarke, exceeding their pythagoreans by 6 and 5 games, respectively. I'm not surprised that the 1954 Cleveland Indians (Al Lopez, mgr.) are fifth. They finished 7 games ahead of Pythagorus's prediction, and 8 games ahead of the Yankees -- though the Indians and Yankees each scored exactly 242 runs more than their opponents. The Indians's success in one-run games was due mainly to a pitching staff with a team ERA of 2.78, not far behind Mike Garcia's individual league best. They through 77 complete games, and another 60 games were finished by Don Mossi, Ray Narleski, Hal Newhouser, or Garcia. So how important is a manager to success in 1-run games? What's Bobby Cox's career record, and what exactly has gone wrong this year? The first and third teams with the BEST record in one-run games were managed by Earl Weaver, and beat their pythagorean expectation of a season’s record by 7 and 4 games, respectively.

The second and fourth teams with the BEST record were managed by Fred Clarke, exceeding their pythagoreans by 6 and 5 games, respectively.

I’m not surprised that the 1954 Cleveland Indians (Al Lopez, mgr.) are fifth. They finished 7 games ahead of Pythagorus’s prediction, and 8 games ahead of the Yankees — though the Indians and Yankees each scored exactly 242 runs more than their opponents. The Indians’s success in one-run games was due mainly to a pitching staff with a team ERA of 2.78, not far behind Mike Garcia’s individual league best. They through 77 complete games, and another 60 games were finished by Don Mossi, Ray Narleski, Hal Newhouser, or Garcia.

So how important is a manager to success in 1-run games? What’s Bobby Cox’s career record, and what exactly has gone wrong this year?

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