Comments on: Jim Rice, John Olerud & Bernie Williams

By: Johnny Twisto

Johnny Twisto — Tue, 08 Jan 2008 01:34:22 +0000

Bernie has an outside shot eventually, but I don’t think it’s so much due to any postseason records as to his overall body of work. Possibly the best player for a 4-time champion. The 2nd or 3rd best CF of his time (depending how you feel about Edmonds). He’s borderline, along with dozens of others, but I think he has a case.

Olerud was also a very good player but I think he has less of a shot. He seems sort of anonymous, which is odd because he played for high profile teams, was known for the helmet, and had a couple huge seasons. Still, I get the sense that while he’s not exactly forgotten, no one thinks about him. There’s at least a half-dozen 1B during his time who were superior, all with more power. Bad luck for Olerud but it matters to me and probably to most voters. Off the top of my head, a similar player to Keith Hernandez, and will fair as poorly in the voting.

I think the chart above is interesting. Wheat and Goslin are HOF, if not upper echelon. Sosa will probably get in. They’re all corner OF like Rice. The overall career numbers aren’t all that matters, of course. The shape of the career is important. Did the player have an outstanding peak, etc. I loved Bernie Williams but he missed 15-30 games every season. Rice was pretty durable. That matters (to me). Also, there is some evidence that dominating was more difficult during Rice’s career than during other periods. There are not as many outlier performances, great OPS+ or ERA+ numbers, during that time. Now, is this just because there were fewer truly great players at that time? Who knows for sure. But if for various reasons it really was harder to separate from the pack, then Rice’s 128 OPS+ is more impressive than it appears. (Dan Rosenheck has written a lot about this at the Hall of Merit.)

I’m not sure if I’d support Rice for the HOF, but I won’t be upset if he makes it. When he was playing, even when he retired, most thought he was a HOF. But he hasn’t gone right in, and it’s no guarantee he’ll make it, though it looks likely. I think the voters have done due diligence on him, considered him over many years, and if he makes it, he doesn’t sully the institution. That others still uninducted may be more deserving doesn’t matter.

By: jackfish

jackfish — Sat, 05 Jan 2008 23:59:06 +0000

It’s true Santo, like Rice, played in a hitters ball park and his road numbers do not look like HOF numbers. However, his home numbers can’t be completely discounted. In the pitcher friendly decade of the 1960s Santo ranked #1 home runs, RBIs, extra base hits, and slugging (min 3,500 ABs) among all infielders throughout the entire decade for both the N.L. & A.L. (1st basemen excluded). He also ranked 2nd in runs scored (behind Maury Wills), and doubles (behind Brooks Robinson), 3rd in hits (behind Wills & Robinson) and had the 6th highest BA overall. All this while being a legitimate 3rd baseman having won five gold gloves in the decade while competeing with Ken Boyer, unliker his offensive contemperaries at third base like Dick Allen and Jim Ray Hart who had no buisness ever being a third baseman.

Jack

By: mccombe_35

mccombe_35 — Sat, 05 Jan 2008 08:19:50 +0000

Can we also remember that Santo played in Wrigley? With all the Rice debates (Fenway helping stuff) please keep in mind Wrigley was a little league park long before Coors Field..

Santo’s splits:

home: .296 / .383 / .522
road: .257 / .342 / .406

A .748 OPS on the road? Look for a player with a .748 career OPS & see if you think he’s a HOFer… You cand find those guys as role players that didn’t hang in the league for 5 years…… Or didn’t get to play half their games at Wrigley.

By: jackfish

jackfish — Sat, 05 Jan 2008 04:09:58 +0000

Speaking of Santo… Let’s keep in mind he was the only player on that list that spent the bulk of his career playing during the 1960s, an extremely pitcher friendly decade. In fact, he put up his best numbers in the mid-late 60’s, which was the era hardest on batters outside the Deadball Era. I think his exclusion to the HOF is a huge mistake.

Jack

By: Andy

Andy — Sat, 05 Jan 2008 01:46:03 +0000

It wasn’t clear the way I wrote it, but it was with tongue-in-cheek that I said that Cepeda was in the HOF, because I don’t think he’s a good choice for the HOF, and my point is that Rice clearly falls short of Cepeda.

By: David in Toledo

David in Toledo — Sat, 05 Jan 2008 01:04:47 +0000

With respect to “Of course, Cepeda is in the HOF. . .” Cepeda’s rehabilitation was a wonderful story, but he’s not the strongest choice (e.g., 310 ws vs. 342 for Mark McGwire and Dick Allen, with 365 a good presumption line for first basemen). If we start admitting catchers because Rick Ferrell and Ray Schalk are in the HOF, then Sherman Lollar and Darrell Porter qualify, to name only two.

Something else that should change things for Ron Santo is that he was diagnosed with diabetes at, I believe, age 18. Sandy Koufax, Kirby Puckett, other careers cut short by injury/disease? Santo couldn’t play after age 34. Project his career on a typical curve from what he accomplished between ages 20 and 32, and there would be no doubt of his credentials.

Bernie Williams was great to watch! It’s a shame he wasn’t able to play as long as, say, Andre Dawson (or even Zach Wheat or Goose Goslin, to use the list above). With 1700 more career-average plate appearances, Bernie’s counting stats would be a lot more impressive (to go with an OPS+ that is already +6 cf. Andre).

By: Bernie Williams for the Hall?

Bernie Williams for the Hall? — Fri, 04 Jan 2008 20:39:46 +0000

[...] I don’t think so, but Steve Lombardi makes an interesting comparison between him and Jim Rice over at Stat of the Day that forces me at least to consider the [...]

By: Andy

Andy — Fri, 04 Jan 2008 20:13:46 +0000

Excellent points, Steve. There are few, I would think, who consider Olerud or Bernie a HOFer. Bernie has an outside shot by virtue of all his post-season records, nevermind the fact that he played in the era of an extra round of playoffs or at a time when his team happened to be at its peak.

Incidentally, if you normalize Rice’s stats to the 1982 Yankees (I picked them at random as being in the middle of his career), his totals go from 382 HR, 1451 RBI, .298/.352/.502 to 376 HR, 1377 RBI, .290/.343/.487. Those latter neutralized totals are VERY close to Cepeda’s actual career numbers. Of course, Cepeda is in the HOF…