Forecasting Jason Giambi
I was just playing around with Baseball-Reference.com’s Play Index Batting Season Finder - looking for LH-hitters, since the DH, who had a season like Jason Giambi’s 2007 - at the same age Giambi was last year. This is what I found:
Cnt Player **PA** OPS+ G HR Year Age Tm Lg AB R H 2B 3B RBI BB IBB SO HBP SH SF GDP SB CS BA OBP SLG OPS Positions +—-+—————–+——-+—-+—+–+—-+—+—+–+—+—+—+–+–+—+—+—+—+—+—+—+—+—+–+—–+—–+—–+—–+———+ 1 Darryl Strawberry 345 132 101 24 1998 36 NYY AL 295 44 73 11 2 57 46 4 90 3 0 1 1 8 7 .247 .354 .542 .896 *D7 2 Jay Johnstone 332 107 119 10 1982 36 TOT NL 282 40 68 14 1 45 45 9 43 0 1 4 3 0 2 .241 .341 .404 .745 97 3 Jason Giambi 303 108 83 14 2007 36 NYY AL 254 31 60 8 0 39 40 2 66 8 0 1 1 1 0 .236 .356 .433 .789 *D3 4 Rick Monday 254 140 104 11 1982 36 LAD NL 210 37 54 6 4 42 39 6 51 1 1 3 3 2 1 .257 .372 .481 .853 97/3
Seasons/Careers found: 4.
Strawberry played a little in 1999 - but, basically, 1998 was it for him in terms of a career. Johnstone hung on for 3 more seasons past 1982 - but, for the most part, he was just a pinch-hitter and back-up OF during those seasons. Monday went on to play 2 more seasons past 1982 - but, like Johnstone, he was just a small spare part in those years.
If you look at Giambi’s last 124 PA of 2007, you’ll see that he had an OPS of .752 - which is not very impressive. Seeing all this, how do you think Jason Giambi will do for the New York Yankees in 2008?
I think the odds are against him - in terms of having any value. For sure, he’s not going to provide any decent ROI on his $20+ million dollar salary this season.