Favorite toy

From BR Bullpen

The favorite toy is a metric by Bill James that projects future career value. The formula remained secret for a number of years but it has since been released.

To get the figures, you need a projection of future seasons. James uses 24-(.6*[Age of Player]). Thus a player who is 28 has 7.2 full seasons left. A player who is less than 1.5 is given 1.5.

To project a statistic, the formula is (last season*3+second to last season*2+third to last season)/6. The number is then multiplied to the future seasons and added to career totals to get a projection.

There is also a formula that gives a percentage chance of attaining the milestone. To get this figure take the future projection ([last season*3+second to last season*2+third to last season]/6)*future seasons. Then divide that number by the needed total then subtract .5.

[edit] Sample Problem

For example, what are Andruw Jones' chances of hitting 500 home runs?

Jones is 28. He is projected to play 7.2 seasons. He needs 199 home runs to get to 500.

In the past 3 seasons, Jones has 51, 29, and 36 home runs. (51*3)+(29*2)+36=245, this is divided by 6. Jones gets a 41.167 home runs times 7.2 seasons. It is projected, Jones will hit 296 more home runs for a career total of 597.

296/199 = 1.487 - .5 = .987. Jones has a 98.7% chance of hitting 500 home runs. James allows a margin for error by rounding all numbers over 97% to 97%.

For 600 home runs: Jones needs 299 home runs 296/299 = .990 - .5 = .49. Jones has a 49% of hitting 600 home runs.