BR Bullpen:Featured Article Candidates/Josh Gibson

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[edit] Josh Gibson

I'd like to nominate my Gibson bio. I think I added enough to the existing framework from wikipedia that was transferred as part of the MTurk experiment to make it original enough. Also, we haven't had a Negro League featured article yet. We need a picture. Any other changes? - --Mischa 14:48, 4 October 2006 (EDT)

I went through it and made some minor edits, and was confused about some points.

• In 1931, Gibson batted .308 and was second among eastern black clubs in homers (14, two behind Beckwith) - John Beckwith?

Correct. I fixed this.

• In the 1936/1937 winter ball season, he hit .344 in the Cuban Winter League...Returning to Cuba for the 1937/1938 winter season, he hit .342 with 11 homers in 76 AB. - From his BTF HoM thread:

1937-38 - Habana (apparently signed late in season) > 61 AB, 11 R, 21 H, 3 2B, 2 3B, 3 HR, 13 RBI, .344

1938-39 - Santa Clara (won pennant) > 163 AB, 50 R, 58 H, 7 2B, 3 3B, 11 HR, 39 RBI, 2 SB, .356; Led league in runs and HR.

Holway lists Gibson in Puerto Rico, not Cuba, in 1938-39 with the stats I have listed. Of course, Holway's also know nfor typographical errors so....

• Gibson also hit .380 with 6 homers in the Puerto Rican Winter League, leading in homers and trailing only Perucho Cepeda in average. - do we know what team he played for?

Holway doesn't say and neither does Riley.

• In 1940-41, Gibson hit .480 to lead the Puerto Rican Winter League by 71 points over Willard Brown and over 100 ahead of Cepeda. - do we know what team he played for? Perucho Cepeda?

Doesn't say. Perucho Cepeda, yes. I didn't feel a need to keep listing a player's first and last name when he was previously mentioned.

• In average, he trailed only Wright, who edged him by three points in OBP as well. - Wild Bill Wright?
• Prior to Josh, the LMB home run record was Bell's 12 and the next year, Monte Irvin would lead with 20. - Cool Papa Bell?
• He still tore up the NNL for a .449 average (third in the league), 22 homers (more than the next three players - Lenny Pearson, Leonard and Doby - COMBINED) - Buck Leonard and Larry Doby?
• He was third with four triples and hit 11 homers, more than the runner-up (Wright, 5) and either of the #3 players (Leonard and Campy) put together. - Wild Bill Wright, Buck Leonard, Roy Campanella?

See the above.

• Some people claim that Gibson's skills had declined significantly due to his drinking and poor health, citing that he couldn't even squat behind the plate, but it was clear that he was still the top black hitter in baseball. - who claims this; (source citing)?

I've heard this mentioned on discussions on the 'net several times. I think Ribowsky is used as a reference but my memory may be off.

The second paragraph was moved to "Feats" but it should be renamed. A new section about his record and the problems with it as well as projections of what he may have accomplished in wihte baseball could be part of it.

Projections would be difficult. I think you could get a pretty good MLE for the 1940-41 Mexican League years at least.

The intro could use another sentence (Characters: 701 > 900-1000,Words: 116 > ~150).

I'll try to expand it.

--MichaelEng 08:25, 9 October 2006 (EDT)

I found the Cuban teams he played for and entered that, as well as slightly expanding those sections. - --Mischa 20:57, 15 October 2006 (EDT)

[edit] Chris Cobb projections

From here

61. Chris Cobb Posted: May 05, 2005 at 07:46 PM (#1315391)

1. Park factor for all non-Mexican League years set at 99; Mexican League set at 100
2. Playing time based on normal catcher careers during this period, using same framework developed for Mackey. Games as catcher per season capped at 140, but more seasons above 120 games included as a result of Gibson’s reputation for durability.
3. PAs set to 4.0 per game for prime, 3.9 for “decline”; pinch hit PAs added on top of this estimate. I’ll include a more detailed pt breakdown with the fielding ws, which should appear next week.
4. Mexican data have been included for the first time, just to see how it looks. I set conversion factors MeL 1941 equal in competition to NeL; for 1940 I used .87/.76 . These factors produced conversions that look consistent with Gibson’s surrounding seasons. Since Gibson’s candidacy does not hinge on these years and they are the years in which the MeL competition level was surely highest, I thought it would be a good time to experiment.
5. Gibson is projected into the National League for his full career. Hence lower OPS than Foxx but higher adj. OPS+.

Year Team EqG^  PA   BB Hits   TB   BA  OBP   SA
1930!Home 55   209   21   49   76 .260 .336 .405
1931      132  533   60  139  243 .293 .372 .512
1932 Pgh  117  475   55  122  193 .291 .373 .459
1933 Home 130  526   65  142  253 .309 .394 .548
1934 Pgh  120  488   63  123  206 .289 .381 .485
1935      131  528   74  146  252 .323 .418 .556
1936      134  542   81  147  287 .320 .421 .623
1937 Home*126  524   81  172  319 .387 .482 .721
1938      108  444   71  126  206 .338 .444 .552
1939      127  513   84  144  311 .336 .445 .725
1940 MeL* 114  471   81  140  262 .359 .469 .670
1941 MeL  138  554   95  155  287 .338 .452 .624
1942 Home 114  465   81  123  224 .320 .439 .584
1943       90  371   66  112  195 .367 .480 .639
1944      122  506   91  133  231 .321 .443 .556
1945      130  509   92  130  255 .312 .436 .610
1946       97  389   71  110  219 .346 .465 .689
Total    1930 7837 1210 2165 3941 .327 .431 .595

• Game totals do not include 195 est. pinch-hitting apperances, but PA do. I keep ph out of the games data so that I don’t have to remove them again when estimating fielding ws.
• 1937 - Seasonal projections do not include Santa Domingo play, but there is no evidence that his play there was anything less that dominating.
• 1940 - Seasonal projections include data for one game with Homestead.
• 1930 not counted in career stats. Seasonal MLEs provided for reference and to show their role in the regression. Unregressed ba was .220 -- with poor catcher defense, it makes for an unlikely package at the major-league level. By 1931, Gibson’s bat would have brought him to the majors, though.

Counting Stats: 7838 PA, 6623 AB, 2164 H, 3943 TB

63. DavidFoss Posted: May 05, 2005 at 09:25 PM (#1315625) (Stats) and 94. Chris Cobb Posted: May 18, 2005 at 01:32 PM (#1345654) (Win Shares)

1. These are based on slightly revised MLEs. After Joe noted that Forbes Field generally played as a hitter’s park despite being a tough home run park, I redid the park factors for Gibson. Each year he played for Homestead in the 1930s (when they were based mostly in Pittsburgh), I set the park factor at 102. Each year he played for the Crawfords in the 1930s I set the park factor to 100 (all of the pfs had been 99 previously). I left the Mexico factors at 100 and the post-1940 Homestead factors at 99, because after 1940 the Grays were playing mostly in Griffith stadium in Washington, which was a pitcher’s park. These changes lowered Gibson’s career OPS+ from 180 to 177. Not a big deal, so I don’t want to go through the hassle of reformatting all of his MLEs, but I thought you should know.
2. These are a bit less exact than previous win share estimates generally have been. Gibson was regularly among the top hitters in baseball, which means the exact comps are few to none. By OPS+, Gibson was the top hitter in the majors in 1937, 1939, 1940, 1943-45, and he was second only to Ted Wiliams in 1941, 42, and 46. I tried to be slightly conservative in my estimates, but for the second half of Gibson’s career, the batting win shares could be off by 10% in either direction. Not that it makes much difference in terms of his HoM case, but it would affect his all-time standing somewhat.
3. Fielding win shares are based of the estimate that Gibson was a C catcher for his career. I used Darrell Porter’s career as a model, adding a learning curve at the beginning of Gibson’s career. Porter averaged 4.8 fws/1000 innings in his career; Gibson came out to 4.63. I made him a C- leftfielder (2.1 fws/1000) and first baseman (1.4 fws/1000) for the games in which I estimated him at those positions.

Info			Stats			No-pitchers context, MLB for the 20s, then NL			Pluses				Win Shares
Year	Team	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	AVG	OBP	SLG	AVG+	OBP+	SLG+	OPS+	BAT	FLD	Total
1930	Home	209	0.260	0.335	0.405	0.312	0.370	0.464	83	91	87	78	X	X	X
1931	Home	533	0.293	0.373	0.512	0.285	0.344	0.403	103	109	127	136	17.1	3.8	20.9
1932	Pgh	475	0.291	0.373	0.459	0.284	0.337	0.412	102	111	111	122	12.3	3.0	15.3
1933	Home	526	0.309	0.394	0.548	0.274	0.327	0.376	113	120	146	166	25.0	4.4	29.4
1934	Pgh	488	0.289	0.381	0.485	0.287	0.342	0.408	101	111	119	130	12.8	4.3	17.1
1935	Pgh	528	0.323	0.417	0.556	0.286	0.341	0.407	113	122	137	159	24.5	5.3	29.8
1936	Pgh	542	0.320	0.421	0.623	0.286	0.345	0.400	112	122	156	178	28.4	5.6	34.0
1937	Home	524	0.387	0.483	0.721	0.280	0.342	0.397	138	141	182	223	34.3	5.7	40.0
1938	Home	444	0.338	0.444	0.552	0.275	0.339	0.391	123	131	141	172	17.9	4.9	22.8
1939	Home	513	0.336	0.444	0.725	0.280	0.346	0.401	120	128	181	209	30.0	6.1	36.1
1940	MeL	471	0.359	0.469	0.670	0.272	0.337	0.391	132	139	171	211	28.0	4.8	32.8
1941	MeL	554	0.338	0.451	0.624	0.266	0.337	0.375	127	134	166	200	34.2	6.8	41.0
1942	Home	465	0.320	0.439	0.584	0.256	0.328	0.356	125	134	164	198	29.4	4.6	34.0
1943	Home	371	0.367	0.480	0.639	0.265	0.334	0.360	138	144	178	221	23.4	2.7	26.1
1944	Home	506	0.321	0.443	0.556	0.268	0.335	0.377	120	132	147	180	27.7	3.6	31.3
1945	Home	509	0.312	0.436	0.610	0.273	0.343	0.377	114	127	162	189	25.3	2.8	28.1
1946	Home	389	0.346	0.465	0.689	0.263	0.338	0.368	132	138	187	225	27.8	1.4	29.2
TOTALS		7838	0.327	0.431	0.595	0.276	0.339	0.389	119	127	153	180	398.1	69.8	467.9

Stats from sprtize:

Year	Stint	Team	League	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	IBB	HBP	SH	SF	GIDP
1929	10	Homestead	Negro American League	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
1930	10	Homestead	Negro American League	12	46	9	12	2	1	1	9	1	0	10	3	1	0	0	1	1
1931	10	Homestead	Negro American League	65	256	60	79	15	7	14	62	4	3	55	17	7	1	0	4	10
1932	10	Pittsburgh	Negro National League	86	290	67	88	16	6	10	70	4	3	62	19	6	1	4	3	11
1933	10	Pittsburgh	Negro National League	80	332	89	117	18	10	23	92	6	4	71	22	12	1	2	4	15
1934	10	Pittsburgh	Negro National League	86	302	68	89	15	4	16	70	5	3	3	20	6	1	2	4	11
1935	10	Pittsburgh	Negro National League	51	220	59	78	8	3	16	61	4	3	3	15	6	1	1	3	12
1936	10	Pittsburgh	Negro National League	30	107	27	35	4	2	14	28	2	1	15	7	5	0	1	1	4
1937	10	Trujillo	Puerto Rican Winter League	15	53	18	24	4	2	5	19	1	1	7	4	3	0	0	1	2
1937	10	Homestead	Negro National League	44	171	60	79	6	5	21	62	4	2	24	11	11	1	1	2	7
1937	11	Habana	Cuban Winter League	16	61	11	21	3	2	3	13	1	1	12	4	2	0	0	1	1
1938	10	Homestead	Negro National League	37	156	42	56	3	2	8	44	0	1	22	10	4	1	1	2	9
1938	10	Vera Cruz	Mexican	20	76	20	26	4	2	11	20	1	1	11	5	4	0	1	1	3
1938	11	Santa Clara	Cuban Winter League	42	163	50	58	7	3	11	39	2	2	33	11	5	0	0	3	1
1939	10	Vera Cruz	Mexican	25	85	22	29	2	2	17	32	1	1	12	6	6	0	1	2	2
1939	11	Santurce	Puerto Rican Winter League	39	125	32	41	5	3	3	25	1	1	25	8	2	1	0	1	2
1940	11	Vera Cruz	Mexican	22	92	32	43	7	4	11	38	3	1	16	6	7	0	0	2	0
1940	12	Santurce	Puerto Rican Winter League	29	96	17	22	4	1	3	16	1	1	19	6	2	1	0	2	3
1941	11	Vera Cruz	Mexican	94	358	100	134	31	3	33	124	7	5	75	25	16	1	0	5	3
1941	12	Santurce	Puerto Rican Winter League	41	123	45	59	18	1	13	44	3	2	37	8	9	0	0	2	5
1942	10	Washington	Negro National League	32	156	41	54	8	3	14	43	3	2	26	10	6	1	2	2	9
1943	10	Washington	Negro National League	59	294	100	132	33	8	22	105	6	4	48	20	17	2	4	5	18
1944	10	Washington	Negro National League	39	268	75	99	8	12	17	79	5	3	44	18	10	1	4	4	19
1945	10	Washington	Negro National League	30	102	25	33	4	4	11	26	2	1	17	7	4	1	1	2	2
1946	10	Washington	Negro National League	55	136	41	54	12	4	17	43	0	1	9	22	8	1	2	3	3

That puts him 4th all-time in OPS+ behind three corner outfielders (Ruth, Williams and Bonds), one of whom has been suspected of possible steroid usage. I think that presents a legitimate case for Josh as greatest player ever. So much for Piazza's case as top C - he's nowhere close - --Mischa 12:07, 18 October 2006 (EDT)