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Scores
Standings
CAL
@BAL		16
8
OAK
@BOS		1
7
MIL
@CHW		2
3
NYY
@KCR		8
1
CLE
@MIN		11
7
DET
@SEA		1
5
TEX
@TOR		1
7
PIT
@LAD		2
3
ATL
@MON		1
4
HOU
@NYM		4
3
CIN
@PHI		4
9
STL
@SDP		0
10
CHC
@SFG		4
7
Wednesday, May 4, 1983,
, Dodger Stadium
Attendance: 35,757, Time of Game: 2:52
Pirates
2
9-11
⇐ Lost 2 ⇒
 at Dodgers
3
17-7
⇐ Won 2 ⇒
 
                1  2  3   4  5  6   7  8  9    R  H  E
                -  -  -   -  -  -   -  -  -    -  -  -
Pirates         0  1  0   0  0  0   0  1  0    2  6  2
Dodgers         0  0  0   1  0  0   0  1  1    3  6  0
Winning Run scored with 1 out

Pittsburgh Pirates

Batting AB R H RBI BB SO BA OPS WPA aLI WPA+ WPA- RE24 PO A
Lee Lacy LF 3 0 0 0 1 2 .329 .825 -0.068 0.78 0.016 -0.085 -0.5 2 0 CS
Johnny Ray 2B 4 1 2 0 0 0 .284 .745 0.141 1.04 0.165 -0.025 0.7 2 2 2B
Bill Madlock 3B 3 0 1 0 1 0 .288 .649 0.116 1.50 0.202 -0.086 0.4 0 3
Jason Thompson 1B 3 0 0 0 1 1 .230 .770 -0.122 1.43 0.024 -0.146 -0.8 7 0
Dave Parker RF 3 1 1 2 1 1 .267 .713 0.160 2.12 0.224 -0.064 0.8 1 0 HR
Lee Mazzilli CF 4 0 2 0 0 0 .310 .832 0.007 1.36 0.062 -0.054 0.0 4 0
Tony Pena C 4 0 0 0 0 0 .261 .660 -0.218 2.21 0.000 -0.218 -1.5 9 1
Dale Berra SS 4 0 0 0 0 2 .203 .614 -0.118 1.20 0.000 -0.118 -0.7 0 2
Larry McWilliams P 3 0 0 0 0 0 .167 .397 -0.068 0.94 0.000 -0.068 -0.5 0 0
   Kent Tekulve P 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.000 0.00 0.000 0.000 0.0 0 0
   Rod Scurry P 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.000 0.00 0.000 0.000 0.0 0 0
   Mike Easler PH 1 0 0 0 0 0 .387 .844 -0.031 1.24 0.000 -0.031 -0.1
   Manny Sarmiento P 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.000 0.00 0.000 0.000 0.0 0 0
Team Totals 32 2 6 2 4 6 .188 .590 -0.201 1.39 0.693 -0.895 -2.1 25 8
2B: J Ray (9, off B Welch).
HR: D Parker (1, off B Welch; 2nd inn, 0 on, 0 outs to RF).
TB: D Parker 4; J Ray 3; L Mazzilli 2; B Madlock.
RBI: D Parker 2 (5).
Team LOB: 7.
With RISP: 1 for 8.
Fielding
E: D Berra (2); J Thompson (1).
Baserunning
CS: L Lacy (3, 2nd base by B Welch/S Yeager).

Los Angeles Dodgers

Batting AB R H RBI BB SO BA OPS WPA aLI WPA+ WPA- RE24 PO A
Steve Sax 2B 3 0 2 0 2 1 .250 .746 0.105 1.79 0.143 -0.037 1.0 3 2 SB,IW
Ron Roenicke CF 3 0 1 0 0 1 .148 .429 -0.061 1.56 0.040 -0.101 -0.7 1 0 SH
   Steve Howe P 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 0.000 0.00 0.000 0.000 0.0 0 0
   Greg Brock PH-1B 1 0 0 0 0 0 .258 .839 -0.131 5.40 0.000 -0.131 -0.7 1 0
Dusty Baker LF 4 0 1 0 1 1 .258 .746 -0.055 1.67 0.073 -0.128 -0.2 2 0
Pedro Guerrero 3B 5 1 1 1 0 2 .315 .987 0.238 1.66 0.427 -0.189 -0.4 1 2 HR
Mike Marshall 1B 3 1 0 0 1 2 .258 .746 0.210 2.82 0.331 -0.121 0.3 12 0
   Alex Taveras SS 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.000 0.00 0.000 0.000 0.0 0 0
Candy Maldonado RF-CF 3 0 0 0 0 0 .111 .222 0.129 1.76 0.189 -0.060 0.6 1 0 SH
Steve Yeager C 4 0 0 0 0 0 .218 .743 -0.081 2.10 0.011 -0.092 -0.8 5 3
Bill Russell SS 1 1 0 0 2 0 .204 .535 0.005 0.94 0.028 -0.023 0.1 0 5
   Rick Monday PH-RF 0 0 0 0 1 0 .125 .587 0.007 4.38 0.007 0.000 0.2 1 0 IW
Bob Welch P 3 0 1 1 0 1 .111 .333 0.097 1.23 0.161 -0.064 0.6 0 2 2B
   Ken Landreaux CF 0 0 0 0 0 0 .235 .718 0.000 0.00 0.000 0.000 0.0 0 0
   Jose Morales PH 1 0 0 0 0 1 .500 1.667 -0.165 3.27 0.000 -0.165 -0.8
   Tom Niedenfuer P 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.000 0.00 0.000 0.000 0.0 0 0
Team Totals 31 3 6 2 7 9 .194 .665 0.298 1.97 1.410 -1.111 -0.8 27 14
2B: B Welch (1, off L McWilliams).
HR: P Guerrero (7, off M Sarmiento; 9th inn, 0 on, 1 out to LF).
SH: R Roenicke (3, off L McWilliams); C Maldonado (1, off L McWilliams).
IBB: S Sax (2, by R Scurry); R Monday (5, by K Tekulve).
TB: P Guerrero 4; B Welch 2; S Sax 2; D Baker; R Roenicke.
RBI: B Welch (1); P Guerrero (17).
2-out RBI: B Welch.
Team LOB: 12.
With RISP: 0 for 8.
Baserunning
SB: S Sax (10, 2nd base off L McWilliams/T Pena).

Pittsburgh Pirates

Pitching IP H R ER BB SO HR ERA BF GSc IR IS WPA aLI RE24
Larry McWilliams 7.1 5 2 1 5 8 0 1.85 34 65 0.036 1.57 1.3
Kent Tekulve 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0.84 1 2 0 -0.007 4.38 -0.2
Rod Scurry, BS (3) 0.2 0 0 0 1 1 0 0.68 3 3 1 0.044 4.86 0.5
Manny Sarmiento, L (0-1) 0.1 1 1 1 0 0 1 6.23 2 0 0 -0.372 1.96 -0.8
Team Totals 8.1 6 3 2 7 9 1 2.16 40 65 5 1 -0.299 1.39 0.8
K Tekulve faced 1 batter in the 8th inning.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Pitching IP H R ER BB SO HR ERA BF GSc IR IS WPA aLI RE24
Bob Welch 7 6 2 2 4 4 1 4.78 30 57 0.030 1.24 0.8
Steve Howe 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0.00 3 2 1 0.043 2.61 0.8
Tom Niedenfuer, W (2-0) 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 2.25 3 0 0 0.128 1.73 0.5
Team Totals 9 6 2 2 4 6 1 2.00 36 57 2 1 0.201 1.97 2.1
B Welch faced 2 batters in the 8th inning.
Balks: None.
WP: R Scurry (2).
HBP: None.
IBB: K Tekulve (1; R Monday); R Scurry (1; S Sax).
Pickoffs: None.

Other Info

Umpires: HP - Jerry Crawford, 1B - Doug Harvey, 2B - Jerry Dale, 3B - Frank Pulli.
Time of Game: 2:52.
Attendance: 35,757.
Field Condition: Unknown.
Start Time Weather: Unknown.

Starting Lineups

Pittsburgh Pirates         Los Angeles Dodgers
1 Lee Lacy LF 1 Steve Sax 2B
2 Johnny Ray 2B 2 Ron Roenicke CF
3 Bill Madlock 3B 3 Dusty Baker LF
4 Jason Thompson 1B 4 Pedro Guerrero 3B
5 Dave Parker RF 5 Mike Marshall 1B
6 Lee Mazzilli CF 6 Candy Maldonado RF
7 Tony Pena C 7 Steve Yeager C
8 Dale Berra SS 8 Bill Russell SS
9 Larry McWilliams P 9 Bob Welch P

Win Probability Chart

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Top 5 Plays

View Pitches · wWE and wWPA Explanation
Inn Score Out RoB Pit(cnt) R/O @Bat Batter Pitcher wWPA wWE Play Description
b9 2-2 1 --- R LAD P. Guerrero M. Sarmiento 43% 100% Home Run
b8 1-2 1 123 R LAD K. Landreaux R. Scurry 23% 78% Wild Pitch; Marshall Scores/unER; Maldonado to 3B; Monday to 2B
t8 1-1 0 1-- PIT B. Madlock B. Welch -19% 24% Single to CF; Ray to 3B
b8 2-2 1 -23 O LAD J. Morales R. Scurry -17% 61% Strikeout
b4 0-1 2 1-- R LAD B. Welch L. McWilliams 16% 54% Double to RF; Russell Scores

Play By Play

View Pitches · Box Score Explanation · wWE and wWPA Explanation
Inn Score Out RoB Pit(cnt) R/O @Bat Batter Pitcher wWPA wWE Play Description
Top of the 1st, Pirates Batting, Tied 0-0, Dodgers' Bob Welch facing 1-2-3
t1 0-0 0 --- O PIT L. Lacy B. Welch 2% 52% Strikeout Looking
t1 0-0 1 --- O PIT J. Ray B. Welch 1% 54% Groundout: C-1B
t1 0-0 2 --- PIT B. Madlock B. Welch -1% 52% Walk
t1 0-0 2 1-- O PIT J. Thompson B. Welch 2% 55% Groundout: P-1B
0 runs, 0 hits, 0 errors, 1 LOB. Pirates 0, Dodgers 0.
Bottom of the 1st, Dodgers Batting, Tied 0-0, Pirates' Larry McWilliams facing 1-2-3
b1 0-0 0 --- LAD S. Sax L. McWilliams 4% 58% Single to LF
b1 0-0 0 1-- O LAD R. Roenicke L. McWilliams -3% 55% Flyball: 2B
b1 0-0 1 1-- O LAD D. Baker L. McWilliams -3% 52% Flyball: LF
b1 0-0 2 1-- O LAD P. Guerrero L. McWilliams -2% 50% Groundout: 2B-1B
0 runs, 1 hit, 0 errors, 1 LOB. Pirates 0, Dodgers 0.
Top of the 2nd, Pirates Batting, Tied 0-0, Dodgers' Bob Welch facing 5-6-7
t2 0-0 0 --- R PIT D. Parker B. Welch -11% 39% Home Run
t2 1-0 0 --- O PIT L. Mazzilli B. Welch 2% 41% Flyball: RF
t2 1-0 1 --- O PIT T. Pena B. Welch 1% 42% Flyball: 2B
t2 1-0 2 --- O PIT D. Berra B. Welch 1% 43% Strikeout (C-1B)
1 run, 1 hit, 0 errors, 0 LOB. Pirates 1, Dodgers 0.
Bottom of the 2nd, Dodgers Batting, Behind 0-1, Pirates' Larry McWilliams facing 5-6-7
b2 0-1 0 --- O LAD M. Marshall L. McWilliams -2% 41% Groundout: 2B-1B
b2 0-1 1 --- LAD C. Maldonado L. McWilliams 5% 45% Reached on E6 (Ground Ball); Maldonado to 2B
b2 0-1 1 -2- O LAD S. Yeager L. McWilliams -4% 41% Groundout: 3B-1B
b2 0-1 2 -2- LAD B. Russell L. McWilliams 1% 43% Walk
b2 0-1 2 12- O LAD B. Welch L. McWilliams -5% 38% Flyball: LF
0 runs, 0 hits, 1 error, 2 LOB. Pirates 1, Dodgers 0.
Top of the 3rd, Pirates Batting, Ahead 1-0, Dodgers' Bob Welch facing 9-1-2
t3 1-0 0 --- O PIT L. McWilliams B. Welch 2% 40% Groundout: 2B-1B
t3 1-0 1 --- O PIT L. Lacy B. Welch 1% 41% Strikeout Looking
t3 1-0 2 --- O PIT J. Ray B. Welch 1% 42% Groundout: P-1B
0 runs, 0 hits, 0 errors, 0 LOB. Pirates 1, Dodgers 0.
Bottom of the 3rd, Dodgers Batting, Behind 0-1, Pirates' Larry McWilliams facing 1-2-3
b3 0-1 0 --- LAD S. Sax L. McWilliams 5% 47% Single to LF
b3 0-1 0 1-- LAD R. Roenicke L. McWilliams 3% 50% Sax Steals 2B
b3 0-1 0 -2- O LAD R. Roenicke L. McWilliams -2% 48% Bunt Groundout: C-1B/Sacrifice; Sax to 3B
b3 0-1 1 --3 LAD D. Baker L. McWilliams 3% 51% Walk
b3 0-1 1 1-3 O LAD P. Guerrero L. McWilliams -8% 43% Strikeout
b3 0-1 2 1-3 O LAD M. Marshall L. McWilliams -6% 37% Strikeout Looking
0 runs, 1 hit, 0 errors, 2 LOB. Pirates 1, Dodgers 0.
Top of the 4th, Pirates Batting, Ahead 1-0, Dodgers' Bob Welch facing 3-4-5
t4 1-0 0 --- O PIT B. Madlock B. Welch 2% 39% Flyball: LF
t4 1-0 1 --- O PIT J. Thompson B. Welch 2% 40% Flyball: CF
t4 1-0 2 --- PIT D. Parker B. Welch -1% 39% Walk
t4 1-0 2 1-- PIT L. Mazzilli B. Welch -2% 37% Single to RF; Parker to 2B
t4 1-0 2 12- O PIT T. Pena B. Welch 4% 41% Groundout: 1B unassisted
0 runs, 1 hit, 0 errors, 2 LOB. Pirates 1, Dodgers 0.
Bottom of the 4th, Dodgers Batting, Behind 0-1, Pirates' Larry McWilliams facing 6-7-8
b4 0-1 0 --- O LAD C. Maldonado L. McWilliams -3% 38% Flyball: RF
b4 0-1 1 --- O LAD S. Yeager L. McWilliams -2% 36% Flyball: CF
b4 0-1 2 --- LAD B. Russell L. McWilliams 2% 38% Walk
b4 0-1 2 1-- R LAD B. Welch L. McWilliams 16% 54% Double to RF; Russell Scores
b4 1-1 2 -2- LAD S. Sax L. McWilliams 1% 55% Walk
b4 1-1 2 12- O LAD R. Roenicke L. McWilliams -5% 50% Strikeout Looking
1 run, 1 hit, 0 errors, 2 LOB. Pirates 1, Dodgers 1.
Top of the 5th, Pirates Batting, Tied 1-1, Dodgers' Bob Welch facing 8-9-1
t5 1-1 0 --- O PIT D. Berra B. Welch 3% 53% Groundout: SS-1B
t5 1-1 1 --- O PIT L. McWilliams B. Welch 2% 55% Groundout: SS-1B
t5 1-1 2 --- PIT L. Lacy B. Welch -2% 53% Walk
t5 1-1 2 1-- O PIT J. Ray B. Welch 3% 56% Lacy Caught Stealing 2B (C-2B)
0 runs, 0 hits, 0 errors, 0 LOB. Pirates 1, Dodgers 1.
Bottom of the 5th, Dodgers Batting, Tied 1-1, Pirates' Larry McWilliams facing 3-4-5
b5 1-1 0 --- LAD D. Baker L. McWilliams 5% 61% Single to LF
b5 1-1 0 1-- O LAD P. Guerrero L. McWilliams -4% 57% Groundout: 3B-2B/Forceout at 2B
b5 1-1 1 1-- O LAD M. Marshall L. McWilliams -4% 53% Strikeout
b5 1-1 2 1-- O LAD C. Maldonado L. McWilliams -3% 50% Flyball: CF
0 runs, 1 hit, 0 errors, 1 LOB. Pirates 1, Dodgers 1.
Top of the 6th, Pirates Batting, Tied 1-1, Dodgers' Bob Welch facing 2-3-4
t6 1-1 0 --- PIT J. Ray B. Welch -10% 40% Double to RF
t6 1-1 0 -2- O PIT B. Madlock B. Welch 6% 47% Flyball: LF
t6 1-1 1 -2- PIT J. Thompson B. Welch -2% 44% Walk
t6 1-1 1 12- O PIT D. Parker B. Welch 6% 51% Strikeout
t6 1-1 2 12- PIT L. Mazzilli B. Welch -4% 47% Single to 2B; Ray to 3B; Thompson to 2B
t6 1-1 2 123 O PIT T. Pena B. Welch 11% 57% Groundout: SS-2B/Forceout at 2B
0 runs, 2 hits, 0 errors, 3 LOB. Pirates 1, Dodgers 1.
Bottom of the 6th, Dodgers Batting, Tied 1-1, Pirates' Larry McWilliams facing 7-8-9
b6 1-1 0 --- O LAD S. Yeager L. McWilliams -3% 54% Groundout: SS-1B
b6 1-1 1 --- O LAD B. Russell L. McWilliams -2% 52% Groundout: SS-1B
b6 1-1 2 --- O LAD B. Welch L. McWilliams -2% 50% Strikeout
0 runs, 0 hits, 0 errors, 0 LOB. Pirates 1, Dodgers 1.
Top of the 7th, Pirates Batting, Tied 1-1, Dodgers' Bob Welch facing 8-9-1
t7 1-1 0 --- O PIT D. Berra B. Welch 4% 54% Flyball: 3B
t7 1-1 1 --- O PIT L. McWilliams B. Welch 3% 56% Groundout: SS-1B
t7 1-1 2 --- O PIT L. Lacy B. Welch 2% 58% Groundout: SS-1B
0 runs, 0 hits, 0 errors, 0 LOB. Pirates 1, Dodgers 1.
Bottom of the 7th, Dodgers Batting, Tied 1-1, Pirates' Larry McWilliams facing 1-2-3
b7 1-1 0 --- O LAD S. Sax L. McWilliams -4% 55% Strikeout
b7 1-1 1 --- LAD R. Roenicke L. McWilliams 4% 59% Single to LF
b7 1-1 1 1-- O LAD D. Baker L. McWilliams -5% 54% Strikeout
b7 1-1 2 1-- O LAD P. Guerrero L. McWilliams -4% 50% Strikeout
0 runs, 1 hit, 0 errors, 1 LOB. Pirates 1, Dodgers 1.
Top of the 8th, Pirates Batting, Tied 1-1, Dodgers' Bob Welch facing 2-3-4
t8 1-1 0 --- PIT J. Ray B. Welch -7% 43% Single to RF
t8 1-1 0 1-- PIT B. Madlock B. Welch -19% 24% Single to CF; Ray to 3B
Steve Howe replaces Ron Roenicke (CF) pitching and batting 2nd
Ken Landreaux replaces Bob Welch (P) playing CF batting 9th
t8 1-1 0 1-3 O PIT J. Thompson S. Howe 11% 35% Strikeout
t8 1-1 1 1-3 RO PIT D. Parker S. Howe -10% 25% Groundout: 2B-1B; Ray Scores; Madlock to 2B
t8 2-1 2 -2- O PIT L. Mazzilli S. Howe 3% 28% Groundout: 3B-1B
1 run, 2 hits, 0 errors, 1 LOB. Pirates 2, Dodgers 1.
Bottom of the 8th, Dodgers Batting, Behind 1-2, Pirates' Larry McWilliams facing 5-6-7
b8 1-2 0 --- LAD M. Marshall L. McWilliams 10% 38% Walk
b8 1-2 0 1-- LAD C. Maldonado L. McWilliams 14% 53% Reached on E3/Sacrifice Bunt; Marshall to 2B
b8 1-2 0 12- O LAD S. Yeager L. McWilliams 1% 54% Groundout: 3B-1B; Marshall to 3B; Maldonado to 2B
Kent Tekulve replaces Larry McWilliams pitching and batting 9th
Rick Monday pinch hits for Bill Russell (SS) batting 8th
b8 1-2 1 -23 LAD R. Monday K. Tekulve 1% 54% Intentional Walk
Rod Scurry replaces Kent Tekulve pitching and batting 9th
b8 1-2 1 123 R LAD K. Landreaux R. Scurry 23% 78% Wild Pitch; Marshall Scores/unER; Maldonado to 3B; Monday to 2B
Jose Morales pinch hits for Ken Landreaux (CF) batting 9th
b8 2-2 1 -23 O LAD J. Morales R. Scurry -17% 61% Strikeout
b8 2-2 2 -23 LAD S. Sax R. Scurry 2% 63% Intentional Walk
Greg Brock pinch hits for Steve Howe (P) batting 2nd
b8 2-2 2 123 O LAD G. Brock R. Scurry -13% 50% Flyball: CF
1 run, 0 hits, 1 error, 3 LOB. Pirates 2, Dodgers 2.
Top of the 9th, Pirates Batting, Tied 2-2, Dodgers' Tom Niedenfuer facing 7-8-9
Tom Niedenfuer replaces Jose Morales (PH) pitching and batting 9th
Greg Brock moves from PH to 1B
Alex Taveras replaces Mike Marshall (1B) playing SS batting 5th
Candy Maldonado moves from RF to CF
Rick Monday moves from PH to RF
t9 2-2 0 --- O PIT T. Pena T. Niedenfuer 6% 56% Groundout: 3B-1B
t9 2-2 1 --- O PIT D. Berra T. Niedenfuer 4% 60% Strikeout Looking
Mike Easler pinch hits for Rod Scurry (P) batting 9th
t9 2-2 2 --- O PIT M. Easler T. Niedenfuer 3% 63% Flyball: RF
0 runs, 0 hits, 0 errors, 0 LOB. Pirates 2, Dodgers 2.
Bottom of the 9th, Dodgers Batting, Tied 2-2, Pirates' Manny Sarmiento facing 3-4-5
Manny Sarmiento replaces Mike Easler (PH) pitching and batting 9th
b9 2-2 0 --- O LAD D. Baker M. Sarmiento -5% 57% Flyball: CF
b9 2-2 1 --- R LAD P. Guerrero M. Sarmiento 43% 100% Home Run
1 run, 1 hit, 0 errors, 0 LOB. Pirates 2, Dodgers 3.

Retrosheet.org Boxscore:LAN198305040
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Play-by-Play Explanation

  • Score- The score from the perspective of the batting team.
  • RoB- This gives the baserunner (Runners on Base) configuration at the start of the play. "1-3" would mean runners on first and third. Clicking on this will show the defensive players and baserunners on the field for this play.
  • Pit- When available, the number of pitches in this plate appearance. Clicking on this number will show the sequence of pitches thrown including, when available, things like runner going, ball blocked, attempted pickoffs and the like. We believe this data to be as accurate as humanly possible, but there are going to be some errors in the data, so please take it with a grain of salt. Clicking on this will show the defensive players and baserunners on the field for this play.
  • R/O- This has a "O" for every out on the play and an "R" for every run that scored on the play. Some plays will have both in no particular order.
  • Batter- The batter at the plate when this play occurred. If the play is a baserunning event, then the batter's name will be repeated as indicated by quotes.
  • Pitcher- The pitcher on the mound when this play occurred.
  • wWPA- Winning Team's Win Probability Added. The amount that this play increased or decreased the eventual winning team's probability of winning the game. More About Win Probability Added
  • wWE- Winning Team's Win Expectancy. The probability of the eventual winning team winning the game prior to this play given two average teams playing each other. More About Win Probability Added
  • Play Detail- This is an explanation of the play that occurred. In some cases, batted ball location and type will be indicated within parentheses. Again, these are best efforts to the record the game as it happened. Also, plays made on the baserunners (including the batter as a baserunner) will be indicated in parentheses after the baserunner's name. Advancement of baserunners is given in cases where the advancement is not easily deduced or obvious from the play. For example, advancement for a walk will not be given, but for a single or double it will be given.

Please report any issues or strangeness you see with the description of plays given above. We have tested several hundred different types of plays, but, in all likelihood, there are still some errors or misinterpretations of the play-by-play data.

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In some cases, the results from play-by-play data will contradict results in the official record. The official record has many, many errors, but we have not undertaken to reconcile those errors. Pitch-by-pitch data should not be taken as completely accurate, though we believe it to be as accurate as is currently possible.

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