Baseball-Reference Blog

Revolving Door On The Mound

Steve Lombardi — Fri, 10 Jul 2009 22:31:41 +0000

Today I found myself wondering “What’s the high mark for most pitchers used by a team in a 9-inning (or less) game where the team was not throwing a ton of pitches?” Basically, I was looking for games where a manager was running pitchers in and out of a contest faster than someone with a severe sharting problem changes their underwear. So, I used Baseball-Reference.com’s Play Index Team Pitching Game Finder and set the controls for “From 1954 to 2009, (requiring pitchers>=8, IP<=9 and Pitches<=150), sorted by greatest pitchers in a game” - and this is what I found:

  Cnt Date          Tm   Opp GmReslt  IP   H  R ER BB SO HR Pit Str IR IS  BF  AB 2B 3B IBB HBP SH SF GDP SB CS Pk **Ptchrs**   ERA
+----+-------------+---+----+-------+----+--+--+--+--+--+--+---+---+--+--+---+---+--+--+---+---+--+--+---+--+--+--+----------+------+
    1 2006-09-25    HOU  PHI W  5-4   9    8  4  4  4  6  1 148  95  5  0  39  34  0  0   0   0  1  0   0  0  0  0        9     4.00
    2 2008-09-17    MIL  CHC W  6-2   9    6  2  2  3  8  1 140  91  1  0  36  32  0  0   0   0  1  0   0  0  0  0        8     2.00
    3 2008-09-09    FLA  PHI W 10-8   9   12  8  8  2  4  1 149  97  4  2  41  38  2  1   0   0  1  0   0  4  0  0        8     8.00
    4 2007-09-30    CHC  CIN L  4-8   8    9  8  8  1 10  1 138  90  2  0  36  33  2  0   0   2  0  0   0  1  0  1        8     9.00
    5 2006-09-30    ATL  HOU L  4-5   9   12  5  2  3  3  2 136  84  6  0  41  38  0  0   0   0  0  0   1  0  1  0        8     2.00
    6 2002-09-29    ATL  NYM L  1-6   8   10  6  2  2  9  2 141  91  1  0  34  30  2  0   0   0  2  0   1  1  1  0        8     2.25
    7 2002-07-07    ARI  SFG L  2-5   9   10  5  5  4  3  2 140  87  5  0  41  37  0  0   0   0  0  0   1  1  0  0        8     5.00
    8 1998-09-27    TBD  NYY L  3-8   8   10  8  8  4  5  1 135  83  7  3  36  31  1  0   0   0  0  1   0  1  1  0        8     9.00
    9 1996-09-27    MON  ATL L  4-6   9   13  6  6  2  7  2 134  83  5  2  43  39  1  0   0   0  1  1   0  1  0  0        8     6.00
   10 1995-09-27    DET  BOS W  7-5   9   16  5  5  0  2  1 118  89  8  1  42  42  4  0   0   0  0  0   1  0  0  1        8     5.00
   11 1995-09-18    MON  CIN L  4-7   8   14  7  7  3  4  0 129  80  7  2  40  37  3  2   0   0  0  0   0  2  0  1        8     7.88
   12 1994-07-07    OAK  BAL W  6-4   9    9  4  3  3  3  0 145  89  6  0  37  31  2  0   0   0  2  1   1  0  0  0        8     3.00
   13 1993-09-27    PIT  PHI L  4-6   9    8  6  6  8  3  1 144  76  6  1  41  33  1  1   0   0  0  0   1  0  1  1        8     6.00

Games found: 13.

Lotta September games here - as expected since teams have expanded rosters and more pitchers to use in September. However, note those two games on July 7th. Tony LaRussa and Bob Brenly really worked their pens in those games.

Missed Games in Batting Gamelogs

Sean Forman — Fri, 10 Jul 2009 17:04:27 +0000

Manny Ramirez 2009 Batting Gamelogs - Baseball-Reference.com

For now this is just for 2009. I’ve added a note to the Gtm column (Team Game number), that shows cases where the batter missed a series of team games. This is a little funky for pitchers, but for batters it shows the number of games missed between the game in that row and the previous game. I don’t show this at the end of the year or when a player switches teams because that is too hard to calculate and this took about 15 minutes to implement. Hmm, why did Manny have that 50 game gap?

A writer for the NY Daily News (which will have a profile of B-R this Sunday) gave me the idea.

GIDP

Andy — Fri, 10 Jul 2009 12:20:22 +0000

Loyal reader and all-around genius Brian asked me to post about GIDPs over the last 10 years.

Let’s start with the top 20 (actually 21) totals for grounded-into-double-plays over the last 10 seasons:

  Cnt Player            **GDP** From  To   Ages   G    PA    AB    R    H   2B  3B  HR  RBI  BB  IBB  SO  HBP  SH  SF  SB   CS   BA   OBP   SLG   OPS  Positions Teams
+----+-----------------+-------+----+----+-----+----+-----+-----+----+----+---+---+---+----+----+---+----+---+---+---+----+---+-----+-----+-----+-----+---------+-----------+
    1 Miguel Tejada       208   2000 2009 26-35 1505  6511  5964  923 1772 348  15 244 1006  409  59  728  83   4  51   60  21  .297  .348  .483  .831 *6/D      OAK-BAL-HOU
    2 Paul Konerko        189   2000 2009 24-33 1406  5790  5107  753 1430 262   2 283  905  564  50  833  65   0  54    6   1  .280  .356  .498  .854 *3/D5     CHW
    3 Vladimir Guerrero   185   2000 2009 25-34 1378  5872  5208  892 1689 316  30 304 1008  557 212  639  63   0  44  147  67  .324  .393  .572  .965 *9D       MON-ANA-LAA
    4 Magglio Ordonez     168   2000 2009 26-35 1288  5466  4895  781 1537 320  13 224  930  488  29  627  34   0  49   68  33  .314  .377  .522  .899 *9/D8     CHW-DET
    5 Albert Pujols       168   2001 2009 21-29 1324  5746  4865 1014 1626 362  13 350 1059  765 185  541  63   1  52   55  29  .334  .427  .630 1.057 *37/59D64 STL
    6 Edgar Renteria      161   2000 2009 24-33 1385  5870  5265  794 1533 312  16 106  677  478  34  712  18  55  54  159  59  .291  .349  .417  .766 *6/D3     STL-BOS-ATL-DET-SFG
    7 Ivan Rodriguez      153   2000 2009 28-37 1166  4747  4434  628 1330 273  30 158  626  242  31  767  24  12  35   64  33  .300  .337  .482  .819 *2/D34    TEX-FLA-DET-TOT-HOU
    8 Derek Jeter         151   2000 2009 26-35 1425  6574  5812 1036 1830 305  26 153  696  579  24  944 105  55  23  206  45  .315  .386  .455  .841 *6/D      NYY
    9 Torii Hunter        146   2000 2009 24-33 1315  5385  4927  761 1356 297  27 221  817  374  40  951  52   1  31  148  61  .275  .331  .481  .812 *8/D7     MIN-LAA
   10 Bengie Molina       146   2000 2009 25-34 1156  4417  4130  397 1143 191   5 128  633  168  20  398  41  22  56    3   6  .277  .308  .418  .726 *2/D      ANA-LAA-TOR-SFG
   11 Mike Lowell         144   2000 2009 26-35 1372  5693  5093  691 1431 355   7 199  845  480  42  685  47   1  72   28  14  .281  .344  .471  .815 *5/4D     FLA-BOS
   12 Manny Ramirez       143   2000 2009 28-37 1286  5580  4687  895 1496 313   9 337 1068  784 161 1023  63   0  46   10   8  .319  .420  .606 1.026 *7D9      CLE-BOS-TOT-LAD
   13 Michael Young       143   2000 2009 23-32 1296  5756  5288  790 1591 302  42 125  686  385   8  854  16  25  42   73  22  .301  .348  .445  .793 *64/5D    TEX
   14 Alex Rodriguez      142   2000 2009 24-33 1454  6468  5471 1141 1658 274  15 419 1188  816  80 1178 122   0  59  167  35  .303  .401  .588  .989 *56/D     SEA-TEX-NYY
   15 Jeff Kent           142   2000 2008 32-40 1266  5377  4756  754 1429 327  29 216  850  504  39  752  63   0  54   45  29  .300  .371  .518  .889 *4/3D     SFG-HOU-LAD
   16 Carlos Lee          141   2000 2009 24-33 1436  6029  5451  842 1584 322  11 277  965  471  44  720  34   2  71  108  38  .291  .347  .506  .853 *7/D      CHW-MIL-TOT-HOU
   17 Orlando Cabrera     139   2000 2009 25-34 1456  6186  5638  735 1543 350  19  98  649  416  21  526  23  39  70  179  43  .274  .322  .395  .717 *6/D4     MON-TOT-LAA-CHW-OAK
   18 Adrian Beltre       138   2000 2009 21-30 1414  5885  5400  708 1468 304  21 225  804  395  43  916  40   8  42   86  30  .272  .324  .461  .785 *5/D64    LAD-SEA
   19 Derrek Lee          138   2000 2009 24-33 1378  5741  4994  801 1449 316  24 251  783  650  64 1112  51   2  44   93  41  .290  .375  .514  .889 *3/D      FLA-CHC
   20 Aramis Ramirez      138   2000 2009 22-31 1259  5228  4728  669 1364 295  14 247  866  377  39  684  65   1  57   13  12  .288  .346  .514  .860 *5/D      PIT-TOT-CHC
   21 Shawn Green         138   2000 2007 27-34 1235  5196  4569  727 1285 281  20 209  694  538  64  805  52   1  36   86  27  .281  .361  .489  .850 *93/8D    LAD-ARI-TOT-NYM

To get a lot of GIDPs, I think there are several key factors:

You have to play a lot. These guys are pretty much all superstars who rarely sit and therefore played a lot of games. More games means more opportunities to hit into double plays.
You probably aren’t very fast. The majority of the players on this list–Tejada, Konerko, Molina, Lowell, Kent, and Green come right to mind–are slow players. A few (Jeter and Hunter stick out) are fast, but we’ll come back to them in a minute.
You almost certainly don’t bat leadoff, since leadoff hitters always get at least one plate appearance per game where they cannot possibly GIDP (the first one.) Nobody on the list above has spent significant time hitting leadoff except for Jeter, and most of the time since 2000 he’s hit second.
You probably play for a team that scores a lot of runs. More runs means more plate appearance, which means more opportunities to ground into double plays. Notice that most of these guys come from teams that made multiple playoff appearances over the last 10 years. If a team makes the playoffs, it probably scores more runs and therefore also grounds into more double plays.

You probably are starting to see the trouble with a list like this. There are lots of external factors that come into play when grounding into a double play and it would be a lot better if we could normalize the total by total possible “chances” for a double play, i.e. batting with a runner on first and less than 2 outs. Of course this normalization can be done, but not easily with the PI.

Even if we just normalized by plate appearances, you can see that catchers I-Rod and Molina would rank much higher. They’ve racked up their GIDPs in many fewer plate appearances.

So here is the list of fewest GIDPs over the last 10 years, minimum 4000 plate appearances:

  Cnt Player            **GDP**   PA  From  To   Ages   G    AB    R    H   2B  3B  HR  RBI  BB  IBB  SO  HBP  SH  SF  SB   CS   BA   OBP   SLG   OPS  Positions Teams
+----+-----------------+-------+-----+----+----+-----+----+-----+----+----+---+---+---+----+----+---+----+---+---+---+----+---+-----+-----+-----+-----+---------+-----------+
    1 Ichiro Suzuki        43    6286 2001 2009 27-35 1356  5797  927 1925 213  67  79  491  396 138  555  42  23  28  332  75  .332  .377  .433  .810 *98/D     SEA
    2 Barry Bonds          49    4072 2000 2007 35-42  986  2871  772  925 178  12 317  697 1128 390  427  53   0  20   54   9  .322  .517  .724 1.241 *7/D      SFG
    3 Carl Crawford        51    4427 2002 2009 20-27 1009  4127  616 1218 173  87  78  472  223  16  620  25  26  26  345  71  .295  .333  .436  .769 *7/8D     TBD-TBR
    4 Johnny Damon         53    6488 2000 2009 26-35 1423  5760 1069 1675 320  58 150  699  624  20  717  27  28  49  260  63  .291  .360  .445  .805 *87D/39   KCR-OAK-BOS-NYY
    5 Craig Counsell       55    4054 2000 2009 29-38 1103  3511  496  904 162  28  32  269  444  24  494  40  32  27   95  43  .257  .345  .347  .692 645/3     ARI-MIL
    6 Kenny Lofton         55    4237 2000 2007 33-40 1007  3741  676 1072 171  56  67  369  408  12  426  16  41  31  189  53  .287  .357  .416  .773 *8/79D    CLE-TOT-NYY-PHI-LAD
    7 Cliff Floyd          57    4232 2000 2009 27-36 1082  3682  598 1040 232  10 182  630  439  74  726  75   0  36   90  17  .282  .367  .499  .866 *79D      FLA-TOT-NYM-CHC-TBR-SDP
    8 Brian Roberts        59    4751 2001 2009 23-31 1059  4190  681 1186 290  33  69  404  474  21  620   8  42  37  243  62  .283  .354  .417  .771 *4/6D     BAL
    9 J.D. Drew            60    4612 2000 2009 24-33 1164  3841  735 1095 210  37 186  622  681  43  848  42  15  33   65  28  .285  .395  .504  .899 *98/7D    STL-ATL-LAD-BOS
   10 Adam Dunn            61    5105 2001 2009 21-29 1214  4160  738 1030 214   8 300  731  863  90 1351  58   2  22   59  20  .248  .382  .519  .901 *739/D    CIN-TOT-WSN
   11 Darin Erstad         61    4498 2000 2009 26-35 1146  4106  609 1158 211  20  71  461  311  28  632  26  27  28  120  34  .282  .334  .395  .729 837/D9    ANA-LAA-CHW-HOU
   12 Rafael Furcal        61    5526 2000 2009 22-31 1226  4935  829 1404 241  54  86  437  501  17  706  15  45  30  264  79  .284  .350  .407  .757 *6/4      ATL-LAD
   13 Alfonso Soriano      61    5686 2000 2009 24-33 1272  5252  842 1465 327  23 283  736  324  51 1146  65   8  37  255  70  .279  .327  .512  .839 *47/856D  NYY-TEX-WSN-CHC
   14 Steve Finley         61    4059 2000 2007 35-42 1045  3609  538  962 174  39 151  518  375  34  533  24  18  33   78  36  .267  .337  .462  .799 *8/D91    ARI-TOT-LAA-SFG-COL
   15 Jose Cruz            63    4179 2000 2008 26-34 1073  3628  536  896 200  29 153  469  496  28  840   5  21  29   81  29  .247  .336  .445  .781 987/D     TOR-SFG-TBD-TOT-LAD-SDP-HOU
   16 Jeromy Burnitz       63    4011 2000 2006 31-37 1016  3527  536  867 171  12 192  575  409  47  825  47   2  26   32  30  .246  .330  .464  .794 *98/7D    MIL-NYM-TOT-COL-CHC-PIT
   17 Gary Matthews        68    4310 2000 2009 25-34 1167  3841  576  991 210  28 106  448  412  25  779  16  12  29   89  35  .258  .330  .410  .740 *897/D    CHC-TOT-TEX-LAA
   18 Juan Pierre          68    5924 2000 2009 22-31 1364  5409  785 1630 198  75  13  381  331   7  329  65 106  13  452 151  .301  .348  .373  .721 *87/D     COL-FLA-CHC-LAD
   19 Cristian Guzman      70    4686 2000 2009 22-31 1104  4363  599 1208 205  79  56  384  214  15  597  22  60  27  109  57  .277  .312  .399  .711 *6/D      MIN-WSN
   20 Jim Edmonds          71    4757 2000 2008 30-38 1216  3968  743 1113 253  13 261  768  700  69 1111  33   7  49   39  26  .280  .389  .548  .937 *8/3D7    STL-TOT

The list is pretty what we might have expected. Note that Ichiro has the lowest total but also has by far the most plate appearances of these guys.

Note the following trensd among these players:

You’re probably fast, which helps avoid grounding into double plays. (All the fastest guys are here…Ichiro, Damon, Crawford, Lofton, Furcal, Pierre, Guzman…)
You probably bat leadoff, which really helps a lot inkeeping the GIDP total down.
If you’re not fast, you’re probably a power hitter who hits lots of fly balls and strikes out a lot (Drew, Dunn, Edmonds, Burnitz).
Your team is probably not one of the best. Fewer wins means fewer runs means fewer plate appearances means fewer GIDP opportunities.

And finally, if you’re on the fewest GIDP list, there’s a decent chance you’re also on the most-SB list:

  Cnt Player             **SB**    PA  From  To   Ages   G    AB    R    H   2B  3B  HR  RBI  BB  IBB  SO  HBP  SH  SF GDP  CS   BA   OBP   SLG   OPS  Positions Teams
+----+-----------------+--------+-----+----+----+-----+----+-----+----+----+---+---+---+----+----+---+----+---+---+---+---+---+-----+-----+-----+-----+---------+-----------+
    1 Juan Pierre          452    5924 2000 2009 22-31 1364  5409  785 1630 198  75  13  381  331   7  329  65 106  13  68 151  .301  .348  .373  .721 *87/D     COL-FLA-CHC-LAD
    2 Carl Crawford        345    4427 2002 2009 20-27 1009  4127  616 1218 173  87  78  472  223  16  620  25  26  26  51  71  .295  .333  .436  .769 *7/8D     TBD-TBR
    3 Ichiro Suzuki        332    6286 2001 2009 27-35 1356  5797  927 1925 213  67  79  491  396 138  555  42  23  28  43  75  .332  .377  .433  .810 *98/D     SEA
    4 Jimmy Rollins        307    6150 2000 2009 21-30 1328  5604  893 1536 326  91 132  577  449  35  734  32  32  33  80  66  .274  .330  .435  .765 *6/4      PHI
    5 Bobby Abreu          283    6600 2000 2009 26-35 1499  5520 1010 1642 395  36 207  942  994  80 1161  25   2  59 105  85  .297  .403  .495  .898 *9/8D7    PHI-TOT-NYY-LAA
    6 Luis Castillo        266    5668 2000 2009 24-33 1276  4949  786 1466 150  49  25  349  601  12  568  10  89  19  98 105  .296  .372  .361  .733 *4        FLA-MIN-TOT-NYM
    7 Rafael Furcal        264    5526 2000 2009 22-31 1226  4935  829 1404 241  54  86  437  501  17  706  15  45  30  61  79  .284  .350  .407  .757 *6/4      ATL-LAD
    8 Johnny Damon         260    6488 2000 2009 26-35 1423  5760 1069 1675 320  58 150  699  624  20  717  27  28  49  53  63  .291  .360  .445  .805 *87D/39   KCR-OAK-BOS-NYY
    9 Carlos Beltran       256    6014 2000 2009 23-32 1373  5239  951 1476 306  54 249  912  671  61  942  28  16  60  89  30  .282  .363  .503  .866 *8/D97    KCR-TOT-NYM
   10 Alfonso Soriano      255    5686 2000 2009 24-33 1272  5252  842 1465 327  23 283  736  324  51 1146  65   8  37  61  70  .279  .327  .512  .839 *47/856D  NYY-TEX-WSN-CHC
   11 Brian Roberts        243    4751 2001 2009 23-31 1059  4190  681 1186 290  33  69  404  474  21  620   8  42  37  59  62  .283  .354  .417  .771 *4/6D     BAL
   12 Derek Jeter          206    6574 2000 2009 26-35 1425  5812 1036 1830 305  26 153  696  579  24  944 105  55  23 151  45  .315  .386  .455  .841 *6/D      NYY
   13 Mike Cameron         205    5552 2000 2009 27-36 1316  4805  759 1215 276  40 211  729  622  14 1351  64  18  43  80  54  .253  .344  .459  .803 *8/9D     SEA-NYM-SDP-MIL
   14 Kenny Lofton         189    4237 2000 2007 33-40 1007  3741  676 1072 171  56  67  369  408  12  426  16  41  31  55  53  .287  .357  .416  .773 *8/79D    CLE-TOT-NYY-PHI-LAD
   15 Julio Lugo           187    4856 2000 2009 24-33 1186  4325  635 1172 225  28  78  439  403   4  788  34  56  38  73  62  .271  .335  .390  .725 *6/457D98 HOU-TOT-TBD-BOS
   16 Orlando Cabrera      179    6186 2000 2009 25-34 1456  5638  735 1543 350  19  98  649  416  21  526  23  39  70 139  43  .274  .322  .395  .717 *6/D4     MON-TOT-LAA-CHW-OAK
   17 Alex Rodriguez       167    6468 2000 2009 24-33 1454  5471 1141 1658 274  15 419 1188  816  80 1178 122   0  59 142  35  .303  .401  .588  .989 *56/D     SEA-TEX-NYY
   18 Randy Winn           166    5681 2000 2009 26-35 1344  5108  723 1478 324  43 103  579  435  20  803  50  42  46  87  62  .289  .348  .430  .778 897/D5    TBD-SEA-TOT-SFG
   19 Edgar Renteria       159    5870 2000 2009 24-33 1385  5265  794 1533 312  16 106  677  478  34  712  18  55  54 161  59  .291  .349  .417  .766 *6/D3     STL-BOS-ATL-DET-SFG
   20 Omar Vizquel         151    5281 2000 2009 33-42 1246  4627  638 1251 208  40  43  450  476  21  483  28 111  39  98  65  .270  .339  .360  .699 *6/54     CLE-SFG-TEX

Note this list is also minimum 4000 (to limit to the same group of players). A few guys (Jose Reyes, Chone Figgins, Scott Podsednik, Dave Roberts, and Willy Taveras) would make the top 20 for SB if not for this requirement.

There are 8 names in common from the SB and fewest GIDP lists, while there are 4 names in common from the SB and most GIDP lists. So being fast doesn’t ensure that you won’t ground into a lot of DPs but I guess it helps some.

Joe Mauer is not going to hit .400

Andy — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 14:51:43 +0000

Let me start by saying that I like Joe Mauer as much as the next guy. He’s the best-hitting catcher in the game and might be the best hitter (period) in the game.

Right now, Mauer’s hitting .388 and there’s tons of excitement that he might hit .400 for the year. It ain’t gonna happen.

First, go check out Sean’s post from last year about longest runs to .400. This shows you the deepest into the season players have gotten with a .400 batting average. Mauer’s got 224 AB right now and there are 13 guys on that list who went more ABs while maintaining a .400 average. Keep in mind that Mauer’s already below .400. Don’t even get excited unless he gets to about 275 AB and has raised his average to .400.

Let’s take a deeper look at Mauer’s career. Here’s a plot showing his rolling batting average over each 162-game period of his career.

Click on image for larger version

The red line shows his average over each 162-game period and you can see that he’s twice peaked at about .355, including once in early 2007 and once about 2 weeks ago. Notice that while .355 is a fantastic batting average, it’s a lot less than .400.

The blue line shows Mauer’s batting average over a rolling 54-game window (that’s a third of a season.) In this case, he hit a peak of .423 again about 2 weeks ago. While this is impressive, many players have done it over the last 50 years, and none of them have gone on to hit .400 for a season.

Two arguments that do help Mauer’s case is that Tony Gwynn did hit .400 over a 162-game period from 1993 to 1995 as well as the fact that Mauer doesn’t need to do it over 162 games. He’s qualified for the batting title right now, despite having played in only 60 out of Minnesota’s 85 games so far this season. At that pace, he needs to hit .400 over only about 115 games. I re-ran my above analysis using a rolling 115-game window and Mauer’s peak was .368 coming at that same point about 2 weeks ago. Very nice, yes. Close to .400? Not so much.

By the way, I generated the graph by copying all of Mauer’s game logs into Excel and then culling out the hits and AB data.

3+ Wild Pitches 3 Times in a Season

Raphy — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 03:17:31 +0000

In tonight’s game against the Twins, AJ Burnett threw 3 wild pitches in 1 game. While this stat is not that uncommon, Burnett became the first pitcher since 1954 to do it 3 times in 1 season. As for the career record, Burnett now has 4 such career games. Here were the leaders (1954-2009) before tonight’s games.

                   Games Link to Individual Games
+-----------------+-----+-------------------------+
 Nolan Ryan            7 Ind. Games
 Phil Niekro           7 Ind. Games
 Tommy John            7 Ind. Games
 Jim Maloney           6 Ind. Games
 J.R. Richard          5 Ind. Games
 Juan Guzman           5 Ind. Games
 Tom Candiotti         5 Ind. Games
 John Smoltz           4 Ind. Games
 Joe Niekro            4 Ind. Games
 Mike Moore            4 Ind. Games
 John Lackey           4 Ind. Games
 Orel Hershiser        4 Ind. Games
 Ron Darling           4 Ind. Games
 Tony Cloninger        4 Ind. Games

Predicting the post-season: Part 2

Andy — Wed, 08 Jul 2009 18:03:01 +0000

(sorry for the very late post today…internet problems.)

Another indicator I like to look at to evaluate a team’s performance is the innings pitched by starters vs. relievers. There are lots of reasons why any given team’s starters might throw more of fewer innings. The two most common are:

If the starters aren’t as good or as durable, they tend to throw fewer innings per start
If the starters are very young, their managers tend to have them throw fewer innings. This is piece of baseball wisdom that was largely ignored for many years but most managers now abide by.

So let’s start in the American Leage by looking at splits by pitching role. The second set of data shows the number of games and innings pitched depending on whether the pitcher was a starter or a reliever. By clicking on the red text you can get an expanded breakdown by team such as this.

I extracted some of the key data and put it into an Excel spreadsheet. See here:

Starts    Relief    IP/start    IP/RG
KCR     82    208    6.09    1.08
MIN     83    223    6.05    1.06
TEX     81    204    6.04    1.15
TOR     84    235    6.00    1.08
LAA     81    216    5.97    1.08
CHW     82    203    5.96    1.15
BOS     82    234    5.95    1.04
SEA     82    208    5.89    1.21
DET     82    220    5.81    1.12
TBR     83    239    5.78    1.03
NYY     82    233    5.76    1.13
CLE     83    231    5.59    1.17
OAK     81    236    5.58    1.17
BAL     83    231    5.40    1.22

The four columns here are game starts, games in relief (total number of relief appearances) and then 2 numbers I calculated in Excel: innings pitched per start, and innings pitched per relief appearance.

Kansas City’s starters are averaging 6.07 IP per start, meaning just barely into the 7th inning. Baltimore’s starters are avering 5.40 IP per start, meaning that they get, on average, a bit more than 1 out in the 6th inning. This might not sound like a big difference, but so far Baltimore’s bullpen has pitched 282.1 innings while Kansas City’s has pitched only 224. That’s nearly 60 innings of extra work being loaded onto Orioles relievers.

The point is this: with the exception of the closer and sometimes the setup guy, pitchers in the bullpen are usually the worst major-league pitchers. I’m not saying they are bad, but these are often guys that haven’t been able to develop the pitching technique or stamina to be starters and are usually the worst performers on their teams. The more innings these guys pitch, the worse it usually is for their team because A) they are the worst pitchers and B) they have less stamina.

Point B) is the really significant one. It means that if they get used more over the course of the season, they are quite likely to see a significant decline in performance come August & September. (As an aside, sometimes playoff teams see a boost when they call up an extra bullpen guy or two in September but then can’t use those guys in the playoffs and have to resort to their tired-arm relievers.)

When I look at the list above, the team the jumps out to me as being in trouble is Tampa Bay. They are averaging only 5.78 IP/start, one of the worst figures in the AL plus their relievers are pitching only 1.03 IP/game, the lowest figure in the game. Their relievers have already appeared in 239 games, most in the AL. More appearances by relievers means more times these guys warm up in the bullpen, more pitches thrown, and tired arms later in the season.

The Yankees and Tigers don’t look much better. Both have IP/start figures similar to the Rays and have also seen many relief appearances from their bullpen.

Alternatively, the Rangers looks great. Their starters have one of the highest averages, as do their relievers. It means fewer innings and fewer pitches for their relievers. The Twins and Red Sox also look fine.

So what does this mean for the playoffs? Well for Tampa Bay, it’s the opposite of what I wrote yesterday. Based on run scoring differential, they seemed to be shy a few wins and I expected to make them up later in the season. But based on what their pitching staff is doing, I also expect to see the team fade down the stretch. By combining those factors, I’d expect to see a similar record in the second half, meaning they’ll finish with about 87 wins and out of the playoffs.

Yesterday, I liked the Twins, and today even moreso. I predict a fade for the Tigers and a third-place finish between the Twins and the White Sox.

And in the West, I like the Rangers.

Because of the strength of the Angels pitching, I’m taking them ahead of the Rays or the Yankees to win the AL Wild Card.

Now here’s the same table for the National League.

Starts    Relief    IP/start    IP/RG
STL     85    258    6.13    0.90
SFG     83    222    6.12    1.02
CHC     81    236    6.11    0.99
COL     83    232    6.11    0.98
ARI     84    273    5.97    0.96
PIT     84    236    5.95    1.00
ATL     83    257    5.94    0.98
CIN     82    245    5.94    1.05
NYM     82    266    5.77    0.96
PHI     81    251    5.75    1.06
WSN     82    270    5.71    0.94
FLA     85    262    5.71    1.05
LAD     83    262    5.69    1.08
HOU     83    239    5.69    1.13
MIL     83    243    5.64    1.08
SDP     83    255    5.55    1.13

Right away we see some interesting differences between the leagues. The IP/start is just about the same between leagues (5.863 for NL and 5.840 for AL) but relievers in the NL tend to pitch fewer innings per appearance. I assume this is due to the DH–in the NL if a pitcher gets in trouble and needs to be relieved, the reliever is going to come out of the game as soon as his place at bat comes up. In the AL, this concern doesn’t come up. This probably means that it’s a little more common for a reliever in the AL to come in to finish an inning and stay in to face one or more batters the next inning.

So in the NL East, all three leading teams (Phillies, Mets, and Marlins) are putting up some unimpressive pitching numbers. All three teams have low averages for IP per start. The Phils and the Fish, at least, have a higher average IP per relief appearance. The Phillies have one more ace up their sleeve, though, which is that the two biggest names in their bullpen, Brad Lidge and J.C. Romero, missed significant time to far this season, meaning that they will be fresher later in the season. Given that yesterday’s run-scoring analysis suggested that the Phillies are already deserving of a bigger this, this reaffirms that they will run away with the division.

In the NL Central, both the Cardinals and Cubs have put up fantastic starting pitching so far, at least in terms of innings per start. Coupled with yesterday’s results, this puts the Cardinals as the team most likely to win the divison.

The NL West gives us our first big surprise, where the Dodgers rank quite low on the list. The reason, though, is one of those exceptions I mentioned at the top–they’ve been holding up some of their youngsters from accumulating too many innings. After all, their team ERA is fantastic and their relievers are pitching just about the longest of any NL team. The Giants pitching has been great as well, but not enough to catch the Dodgers.

I do, however, like the Giants for the NL Wild Card.

So the picks are all the same results as from yesterday’s analysis except for the AL Wild Card. I think the locks are Philly, LA, Boston, and Minnesota. I feel pretty good about the Rangers and Cardinals, as well as the Giants as the NL WC.

Rookies shutting out the Red Sox in Fenway

Andy — Tue, 07 Jul 2009 23:53:33 +0000

Since 1954, there have been 20 pitchers to shut out the Red Sox at Fenway Park where the start was among the first 35 games of the player’s career:

  Cnt CarGm Player            Date          Tm   Opp GmReslt App,Dec    IP   H  R ER BB SO HR Pit Str GmSc IR IS BF AB 2B 3B IBB HBP SH SF GDP SB CS Pk BK WP   ERA
+----+-----+-----------------+-------------+---+----+-------+---------+----+--+--+--+--+--+--+---+---+----+--+--+--+--+--+--+---+---+--+--+---+--+--+--+--+--+------+
    1    15 Brett Anderson    2009-07-06    OAK @BOS W  6-0  SHO9  ,W   9    2  0  0  2  9  0 111  72   90       31 29  0  0   0   0  0  0   1  1  0  0  0  0   0.00

    2    24 Jim Abbott        1989-08-30    CAL @BOS W  4-0  SHO9  ,W   9    4  0  0  4  7  0 129  79   82       34 30  2  0   0   0  0  0   2  0  0  0  0  0   0.00

    3    10 Scott Nielsen     1986-10-05    NYY @BOS W  7-0  SHO9  ,W   9    5  0  0  2  3  0           78       31 29  1  0   0   0  0  0   2  0  0  0  0  0   0.00

    4    18 Mark Langston     1984-07-01    SEA @BOS W  1-0  SHO9  ,W   9    3  0  0  6  8  0           83       34 27  1  0   1   0  1  0   0  0  1  1  0  0   0.00

    5    29 Jim Beattie       1979-05-18    NYY @BOS W 10-0  SHO9  ,W   9    4  0  0  2  1  0           78       31 29  1  0   0   0  0  0   2  1  0  0  0  0   0.00

    6    19 Rich Gale         1978-07-28    KCR @BOS W  4-0  SHO9  ,W   9    8  0  0  1  9  0           79       36 35  0  0   0   0  0  0   1  0  0  0  0  1   0.00

    7     3 Dave Rozema       1977-04-21    DET @BOS W  8-0  SHO9  ,W   9    4  0  0  0  4  0           83       31 31  2  0   0   0  0  0   1  0  0  0  0  0   0.00

    8    12 Ed Figueroa       1974-07-12    CAL @BOS W  7-0  SHO9  ,W   9   10  0  0  2  0  0           65       35 33  2  0   0   0  0  0   3  0  1  0  0  0   0.00

    9    24 Milt Wilcox       1972-04-17    CLE @BOS W  4-0  SHO9  ,W   9    2  0  0  3  8  0           88       32 29  1  0   0   0  0  0   0  1  0  0  0  0   0.00

   10    27 Stan Bahnsen      1968-08-01    NYY @BOS W  1-0  SHO9  ,W   9    3  0  0  0 12  0           93       30 29  0  0   0   0  1  0   0  2  0  0  0  0   0.00

   11    23 Jim Nash          1967-04-30    KCA @BOS W  1-0  SHO9  ,W   9    5  0  0  3  7  0           81       34 31  0  0   0   0  0  0   0  0  0  0  0  0   0.00

   12    18 Luis Tiant        1964-09-30(1) CLE @BOS W  5-0  SHO9  ,W   9    4  0  0  1 11  0           89       33 32  1  0   0   0  0  0   0  0  0  0  0  0   0.00
   13     3 Mel Stottlemyre   1964-08-22(2) NYY @BOS W  8-0  SHO9  ,W   9    6  0  0  4  1  0           72       34 30  0  0   0   0  0  0   3  0  0  0  0  0   0.00

   14     7 Bo Belinsky       1962-05-20(2) LAA @BOS W  1-0  SHO9  ,W   9    2  0  0  6  3  0           80       36 28  1  0   1   2  0  0   1  0  0  0  0  0   0.00

   15    26 Jim Archer        1961-08-06(2) KCA @BOS W  1-0  SHO9  ,W   9    5  0  0  5  4  0           76       36 31  1  0   0   0  0  0   0  0  1  0  0  0   0.00
   16    29 Norm Bass         1961-08-04    KCA @BOS W  5-0  SHO9  ,W   9    4  0  0  1  5  0           83       32 31  1  0   0   0  0  0   0  0  0  0  0  0   0.00

   17    23 Jack Kralick      1960-07-06    WSH @BOS W  4-0  SHO9  ,W   9    4  0  0  2  6  0           83       33 31  0  0   0   0  0  0   0  0  0  0  0  0   0.00

   18     7 Herb Score        1955-05-18    CLE @BOS W 19-0  SHO9  ,W   9    3  0  0  3  9  0           87       33 30  1  0   0   0  0  0   0  0  0  0  0  0   0.00

   19    28 George Zuverink   1954-06-05(1) DET @BOS W  6-0  SHO9  ,W   9    3  0  0  2  1  0           80       30 27  0  0   0   0  1  0   1  0  1  0  0  0   0.00
   20    26 Bob Keegan        1954-04-30    CHW @BOS W  5-0  SHO9  ,W   9    8  0  0  4  0  0           67       36 32  1  0   0   0  0  0   2  0  0  0  0  0   0.00

I saw this stat on the mobile version of ESPN.com (regarding Anderson’s performance last night.)

Incidentally, 18 guys have done it at Yankee Stadium against the Yankees:

    1    35 Mark Hendrickson  2003-07-21    TOR @NYY W  8-0  SHO7  ,W   7    5  0  0  2  2  0  94  62   67       26 24  1  0   0   0  0  0   1  1  0  0  0  0   0.00

    2    12 Arthur Rhodes     1992-07-29    BAL @NYY W  6-0  SHO9  ,W   9    5  0  0  2  8  0 117  76   83       32 30  0  1   0   0  0  0   1  0  0  0  0  0   0.00

    3    34 Scott Erickson    1991-06-24    MIN @NYY W  5-0  SHO9  ,W   9    2  0  0  1  6  0 102  68   88       30 29  1  0   0   0  0  0   0  0  0  0  0  1   0.00

    4    10 Ed Correa         1986-05-02    TEX @NYY W  7-0  SHO9  ,W   9    3  0  0  5  9  0           85       36 31  2  0   0   0  0  0   0  0  0  0  1  0   0.00

    5    32 Teddy Higuera     1985-10-02    MIL @NYY W  1-0  SHO9  ,W   9    6  0  0  1  8  0           82       35 33  1  0   0   1  0  0   0  1  0  0  0  0   0.00

    6     9 Ron Romanick      1984-05-20    CAL @NYY W  3-0  SHO9  ,W   9    3  0  0  3  4  0           82       31 28  0  0   0   0  0  0   1  1  0  0  0  0   0.00

    7    12 Matt Young        1983-06-03    SEA @NYY W  5-0  SHO9  ,W   9    2  0  0  2  8  0           89       31 29  1  0   0   0  0  0   0  0  0  0  0  0   0.00

    8     9 Brian Denman      1982-10-02    BOS @NYY W  5-0  SHO9  ,W   9    6  0  0  1  2  0           76       33 32  2  0   0   0  0  0   0  0  0  0  0  1   0.00
    9    15 Frank Viola       1982-08-24    MIN @NYY W  5-0  SHO9  ,W   9    6  0  0  1  8  0           82       33 32  1  0   0   0  0  0   0  0  0  0  0  0   0.00

   10    27 Mark Fidrych      1976-09-12(1) DET @NYY W  6-0  SHO9  ,W   9    9  0  0  1  5  0           73       35 34  1  0   0   0  0  0   0  0  1  0  0  0   0.00

   11    26 Vern Ruhle        1975-07-28    DET @NYY W  3-0  SHO9  ,W   9    6  0  0  0  1  0           76       31 31  0  0   0   0  0  0   1  1  1  0  0  0   0.00

   12    30 Roger Moret       1973-07-04(2) BOS @NYY W  1-0  SHO9  ,W   9    6  0  0  4  6  0           77       36 32  1  0   0   0  0  0   1  2  0  0  0  0   0.00

   13    30 Bill Gogolewski   1971-09-01    WSA @NYY W  2-0  SHO9  ,W   9    4  0  0  0  5  0           84       29 29  1  0   0   0  0  0   1  0  0  0  0  0   0.00

   14    35 Dick Drago        1969-08-30    KCR @NYY W  2-0  SHO9  ,W   9    6  0  0  0  1  0           76       34 34  1  0   0   0  0  0   0  1  0  0  0  0   0.00

   15     1 Billy Rohr        1967-04-14    BOS @NYY W  3-0  SHO9  ,W   9    1  0  0  5  2  0           82       33 28  0  0   0   0  0  0   1  0  0  0  0  0   0.00

   16     6 Jim Lonborg       1965-05-19    BOS @NYY W  3-0  SHO9  ,W   9    4  0  0  3  0  0           76       32 29  0  0   0   0  0  0   2  0  0  0  0  0   0.00

   17     1 Luis Tiant        1964-07-19(2) CLE @NYY W  3-0  SHO9  ,W   9    4  0  0  4 11  0           86       34 30  0  0   0   0  0  0   1  0  0  0  0  1   0.00

   18    12 Don Ferrarese     1956-05-12    BAL @NYY W  1-0  SHO9  ,W   9    2  0  0  1  8  0           90       30 28  0  0   0   1  0  0   0  0  1  0  0  0   0.00

Luis Tiant is on both lists!

Predicting the post-season: Part 1

Andy — Tue, 07 Jul 2009 13:38:42 +0000

Most teams have played half their season now so it’s a good time to predict playoff winners.

I’m going to make a few posts over the next few days to show you some of the indicators I use to determine which teams have the best shot of making the playoffs.

The best indicator is, of course, those teams that are leading their divisions right now. They have the best shot of making the playoffs, and odd are that at least half the current division leaders will win their division.

The first thing I like to look at is run-scoring differential.

Let’s start in the the American League. Click that link to see the standings, and go down to the “AL East Detailed Standings” as well as the sections that follow for the other divisions.

Focus in on the following columns:

Tm     W     L     R     RA     pythWL     Luck
BOS     49    32    5.3    4.3    48-33     0
NYY     48    33    5.6    4.8    46-35     1
TBR     44    39    5.4    4.5    48-35     -4
TOR     42    41    5    4.5    45-38     -3
BAL     36    46    4.7    5.5    35-47     0

Sorry about the formatting.

Here I’ve reproduced actual Wins and Losses, average Runs scored per game and average Runs Against per game, as well as the projected W-L record and something called “Luck”.

The projected W-L uses the R and RA values to determine what the team’s record should be. This was developed by (you guessed it) Bill James and is described here. Turns out that it is amazingly accurate in almost all cases. I’ve been using it the last several years and nearly 100% of the time at this point of the season, a team that is ahead or behind in its actual record as compared to the projected record catches up in the second half, in other words has its luck reversed. That Luck column shows the difference in actual wins from projected wins. So the Red Sox are right where they are supposed to be, the Yankees have 1 more win than expected, the Rays and Jays have fewer wins, and the Orioles are spot on. A number as large as 3 or 4 (positive or negative) is quite unusual and is very unlikely to be maintained.

So what does this mean? If you take away one victory from the Yankees and give 4 to the Rays, it is Tampa Bay and not New York that should be in second place. Either way you look at it, Boston deserves its 1-game lead.

Look at the AL Central, Detroit should have 1 fewer win while Minnesota should have 2 more. That would give the Twins a 2-game lead as opposed to the same lead held by the Tigers right now.

All of the teams in the AL West currently above .500 have had some luck and it should be Texas with a 1-game lead.

Over in the National League, here is the story:

The Phillies are the only NL East team outscoring their opponents and deserve to have a whopping 6-game lead right now. The Phillies are a pretty good team while nobody else is a serious playoff contender. This race is actually over already, in my opinion.

In the NL Central, the top 3 teams all have matching records with the projections. The Reds have luck to the tune of +4 and are absolutely done for the year. They deserve to be 11.5 games behind and have 3 teams ahead of them. They have no chance to win the division.

The NL West is the only division that doesn’t need this analysis to be crystal clear. The Dodgers are by far the best team.

So, by this method, here are my playoff predictions for 2009:

AL East: Red Sox
AL Central: Twins
AL West: Rangers
AL Wildcard: Rays
NL East: Phillies
NL Central: Cardinals
NL West: Dodgers
NL Wildcard: Giants

Tomorrow I’ll look at a different indicator and the predictions might be a little different too.

Rounding Off the 14+ Run Innings

Raphy — Mon, 06 Jul 2009 16:15:54 +0000

In my post yesterday I discussed 2 games that involved 14 run first innings. In the comments of that post, reader ImAShark noted that aside from those 2 there have been very few times when a team scored 14+ runs in any inning. I didn’t realize it at the time, but ImAShark is quite correct. In fact, unless I’m missing something, there have only been 2 other 14+ run innings since 1954. One is famous for being so large and the other for happening this season. However, just to round things out, I will post those games as well. (EDIT- For a more complete list, please see whiz’s comment here)

Texas Rangers - 04/19/1996 - 8th Inning - 16 Runs

Bottom of the 8th, Rangers Batting, Ahead 10-7, Orioles’ Armando Benitez facing 1-2-3
									Armando Benitez replaces Roger McDowell pitching; Jeffrey Hammonds moves from PH to LF; Mike Devereaux moves from LF to RF
b8	0	—		6,(3-2) …BFBSBX	0%	97%	10-7	TEX	D. Hamilton	A. Benitez	Single to 3B (Pop Fly to Deep 3B)
b8	0	1–		3,(2-0) 1B1BS	0%	98%	10-7	TEX	D. Valle	A. Benitez	Hamilton Steals 2B
b8	0	-2-		7,(3-2) 1B1BS.FBFB	0%	98%	10-7	TEX	D. Valle	A. Benitez	Walk
b8	0	12-		5,(2-2) CBFBB	1%	99%	10-7	TEX	W. Clark	A. Benitez	Wild Pitch; Hamilton to 3B; Valle to 2B
b8	0	-23		8,(3-2) CBFBB.FFB	0%	99%	10-7	TEX	W. Clark	A. Benitez	Walk
									Jesse Orosco replaces Armando Benitez pitching
b8	0	123	RR	4,(1-2) ..BCFX	1%	100%	10-7	TEX	J. Gonzalez	J. Orosco	Double to CF (Line Drive); Hamilton Scores; Valle Scores; Clark to 3B
b8	0	-23	RO	5,(3-1) BBCBX	0%	100%	12-7	TEX	M. Tettleton	J. Orosco	Flyball: LF/Sacrifice Fly (Deep LF Line); Clark Scores; Gonzalez to 3B
b8	1	–3	RR	1,(0-0) X	0%	100%	13-7	TEX	D. Palmer	J. Orosco	Home Run (Fly Ball to Deep LF); Gonzalez Scores
b8	1	—		4,(2-1) BBSX	0%	100%	15-7	TEX	R. Greer	J. Orosco	Single to CF (Line Drive to SS-2B)
b8	1	1–		4,(2-1) BCBX	0%	100%	15-7	TEX	M. McLemore	J. Orosco	Single to LF (Line Drive to Deep SS-3B Hole); Greer to 2B
b8	1	12-	R	7,(1-2) CBSFFFX	0%	100%	15-7	TEX	K. Elster	J. Orosco	Single to LF (Line Drive to Short LF); Greer Scores; McLemore to 2B
b8	1	12-		6,(3-2) FBSBBB	0%	100%	16-7	TEX	D. Hamilton	J. Orosco	Walk; McLemore to 3B; Elster to 2B
b8	1	123	R	7,(3-2) CFBBBFX	0%	100%	16-7	TEX	D. Valle	J. Orosco	Single to LF (Line Drive to Deep SS-3B Hole); McLemore Scores; Elster to 3B; Hamilton to 2B
b8	1	123	R	9,(3-2) BSCFBBFFB	0%	100%	17-7	TEX	W. Clark	J. Orosco	Walk; Elster Scores; Hamilton to 3B; Valle to 2B
									Manny Alexander replaces Jesse Orosco pitching; Damon Buford pinch runs for Will Clark (1B) batting 3rd
b8	1	123	R	5,(3-1) ..BFBBB	0%	100%	18-7	TEX	J. Gonzalez	M. Alexander	Walk; Hamilton Scores; Valle to 3B; Buford to 2B
									Craig Worthington pinch runs for Juan Gonzalez (RF) batting 4th
b8	1	123	R	6,(3-2) .BCBBCB	0%	100%	19-7	TEX	M. Tettleton	M. Alexander	Walk; Valle Scores; Buford to 3B; Worthington to 2B
b8	1	123	R	6,(3-2) BSSBBB	0%	100%	20-7	TEX	D. Palmer	M. Alexander	Walk; Buford Scores; Worthington to 3B; Tettleton to 2B
									Kurt Stillwell pinch runs for Dean Palmer (3B) batting 6th
b8	1	123	RO	2,(1-0) .BX	0%	100%	21-7	TEX	R. Greer	M. Alexander	Flyball: CF/Sacrifice Fly; Worthington Scores; Tettleton to 3B
b8	2	1-3		7,(3-2) CBFBFBB	0%	100%	22-7	TEX	M. McLemore	M. Alexander	Walk; Stillwell to 2B
b8	2	123	RRRR	1,(0-0) X	0%	100%	22-7	TEX	K. Elster	M. Alexander	Home Run (Fly Ball to Deep LF); Tettleton Scores; Stillwell Scores; McLemore Scores
b8	2	—	O	2,(0-1) FX	0%	100%	26-7	TEX	D. Hamilton	M. Alexander	Groundout: 2B-1B
									16 runs, 8 hits, 0 errors, 0 LOB. Orioles 7, Rangers 26.

Cleveland Indians - 04/18/2009 - 2nd Inning 14 Runs

Top of the 2nd, Indians Batting, Behind 0-2, Yankees’ Chien-Ming Wang facing 4-5-6
t2	0	—		2,(1-0) BX	4%	35%	0-2	CLE	T. Hafner	C. Wang	Single to 3B (Ground Ball to Weak 3B)
t2	0	1–		5,(1-2) BSFFX	6%	40%	0-2	CLE	J. Peralta	C. Wang	Single to LF (Line Drive to Short LF); Hafner to 2B
t2	0	12-	RRR	5,(3-1) FBBBX	19%	60%	0-2	CLE	S. Choo	C. Wang	Home Run (Fly Ball to Deep LF-CF); Hafner Scores; Peralta Scores
t2	0	—	O	2,(0-1) FX	-2%	58%	3-2	CLE	R. Garko	C. Wang	Foul Popfly: C (Behind Home)
t2	1	—		5,(2-2) CBBFX	4%	62%	3-2	CLE	B. Francisco	C. Wang	Double to LF (Line Drive to Deep LF Line)
t2	1	-2-	R	4,(1-2) CFBX	8%	69%	3-2	CLE	A. Cabrera	C. Wang	Single to CF (Ground Ball thru SS-2B); Francisco Scores
t2	1	1–		3,(0-2) 1FCX	7%	76%	4-2	CLE	G. Sizemore	C. Wang	Double to RF (Line Drive to Deep RF); Cabrera to 3B
t2	1	-23	RR	6,(2-2) FFFBBX	9%	84%	4-2	CLE	M. DeRosa	C. Wang	Double to RF (Fly Ball to Deep RF); Cabrera Scores; Sizemore Scores
t2	1	-2-		2,(1-0) BB	1%	86%	6-2	CLE	V. Martinez	C. Wang	Wild Pitch; DeRosa to 3B
t2	1	–3	R	4,(3-0) BB.BX	3%	88%	6-2	CLE	V. Martinez	C. Wang	Single to RF (Line Drive to Short CF-RF); DeRosa Scores
									Anthony Claggett replaces Chien-Ming Wang pitching
t2	1	1–		5,(1-2) .CCBFX	3%	91%	7-2	CLE	T. Hafner	A. Claggett	Double to CF (Fly Ball to Deep LF-CF); Martinez to 3B
t2	1	-23	RR	2,(0-1) CX	4%	95%	7-2	CLE	J. Peralta	A. Claggett	Double to CF (Line Drive to Deep LF-CF); Martinez Scores; Hafner Scores
t2	1	-2-		5,(3-1) C*BBBB	0%	95%	9-2	CLE	S. Choo	A. Claggett	Walk
t2	1	12-		2,(1-0) BX	1%	96%	9-2	CLE	R. Garko	A. Claggett	Single to CF (Line Drive); Peralta to 3B; Choo to 2B
t2	1	123	O	5,(2-2) BSTBS	-1%	95%	9-2	CLE	B. Francisco	A. Claggett	Strikeout Swinging
t2	2	123	RRRR	5,(3-1) FBBBX	4%	99%	9-2	CLE	A. Cabrera	A. Claggett	Home Run (Fly Ball to Deep RF); Peralta Scores; Choo Scores; Garko Scores
t2	2	—	R	5,(2-2) CCBBX	0%	99%	13-2	CLE	G. Sizemore	A. Claggett	Home Run (Fly Ball to Deep CF-RF)
t2	2	—	O	4,(1-2) SCBS	0%	99%	14-2	CLE	M. DeRosa	A. Claggett	Strikeout Swinging
									14 runs, 13 hits, 0 errors, 0 LOB. Indians 14, Yankees 2.

Davis, Armas & Kong

Steve Lombardi — Mon, 06 Jul 2009 15:56:39 +0000

The Rangers Chris Davis is heading into the week before the All-Star break with 15 homers and an OBA of .256 (in 277 PA).

So, in the history of baseball, has anyone ever had a 30+ homerun season with an OBA less than .260? Thanks to Baseball-Reference.com’s Play Index Batting Season Finder, we know the answer:

  Cnt                       HR  OBP  Year Age Tm  Lg  G   PA  AB  R   H  2B 3B RBI  BB IBB  SO HBP  SH  SF GDP  SB CS   BA   SLG   OPS  Positions
+----+-----------------+---+--+-----+----+---+---+--+---+---+---+---+---+--+--+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+-----+-----+-----+---------+
    1 Dave Kingman          35  .255 1986  37 OAK AL 144 604 561  70 118 19  0  94  33   3 126   3   0   7  16   3  3  .210  .431  .686 *D/3
    2 Tony Armas            36  .254 1983  29 BOS AL 145 613 574  77 125 23  2 107  29   0 131   2   0   8  31   0  1  .218  .453  .707 *8D

Seasons/Careers found: 2.

If Davis does it make - and this assumes he doesn’t lose his job, get injuried, or improve his production - then he will be the first left-handed batter in baseball history to turn this trick. Ouch.