My predictions this year haven't been all that good.
On July 7th, I predicted the playoff teams here. I really missed on the AL East teams, prediction that the Red Sox would win the division and the Rays would win the Wild Card. I had the Yankees missing the playoffs (when in fact they had the best record in baseball...oops). I also missed the AL West where I picked the Rangers, which I'm less embarrassed about, as well as the Giants winning the NL Wild Card (actually won by the Rockies.) I did get all the other division winners correct, though.
Anyway, regardless of my lack of success there, I'm going to make some bold predictions for this off-season. These are based on only my own gut feel and not any inside information. If I am correct on 2 or 3 of these, I'll be proud.
1) The Blue Jays will not trade Roy Halladay during this off-season
The reason for this is pretty simple--trading for one year of a star pitcher is very expensive in terms of talent the acquiring team must surrender and most teams would prefer to wait until the trade deadline to make sure they are in the race before giving up all that talent. The only thing worse than not making the playoffs is trading for a guy like Halladay, giving up your 3 best prospects, and THEN not making the playoffs. Oops. I don't think the Blue Jays will find any takers during the off-season unless the new team is allowed to negotiate a contract extension with Halladay, something that now-fired GM J. P. Ricciardi would not allow at the 2009 trade deadline. Make no mistake--Halladay will be traded by the trading deadline in 2010, just not before the season starts.
2) The Red Sox will dump either David Ortiz or Mike Lowell and sign/acquire two of the following: Jason Bay (free agent), Matt Holliday (free agent), Adrian Gonzalez (trade from San Diego)
When I say "dump" I mean trade or release. Jason Bay did a great job filling in for Manny Ramirez but is now a free agent. And while Ortiz and Lowell had excellent periods during 2009 both are showing significant deterioration. The Red Sox resemble the Yankees circa 2006, with some very old players (Lowell, Wakefield, Varitek), inconsistent starting pitchers (Matsuzaka, Beckett), an enigmatic youngster (Buchholz), a few strong younger players (Pedroia, Ellsbury, Lester, Bard) but an aging core team. The other way in which the Red Sox resemble the Yankees is making the playoffs but getting bounced.
The time has come for this team to get younger and they need to start by getting rid of some of their older, unpredictable talent. They might get nothing in return but this is still a better strategy than standing pat and perhaps getting little or no production from guys on the decline who may be injured. The 3-4 hitters for this team next year are going to be some combination of Bay, Holliday, and Gonzalez. With Jed Hoyer, a former assistant GM in Boston, now running the show in San Diego, the trade of Gonzalez to Boston is as much of a lock as any possible trade. Hoyer knows the Red Sox propsects and there is a trustful relationship between the GMs.
I'm going to hedge my bet right away and say that there's a chance that they'll bring back Damon, but if so, only on a one-year contract. Let's start with Matsui. He's been an outstanding player for the Yankees since they acquired him in 2003. His performance has been excellent and, as with virtually all MLB players born in Asia, he is professional and very hard-working. (Note to Americans...we can all learn something here.) He has two big knocks, however: 1) He's going to be 36 before the All-Star break in 2010 and has had serious injuries in 2 of the last 4 seasons and 2) At this point he can only play DH. Having given Jorge Posada a long contract, the Yankees need to give him probably half the season at DH next year. Look for Francisco Cervelli to catch more. As A-rod and Jeter age (seasonal ages of 34 and 36 next year) they will also benefit from some time at DH. The Yankees simply need to get younger and need to protect Posada.
In the case of Damon, the question will probably come down to whether Xavier Nady will be back in 2010, ready to take over in the outfield. Damon has been outstanding offensively in 2008-2009 but is not a good defensive player. If Nady can take over, I think the Yankees will hand him Damon's spot and move on. Keep in mind that 4 of the Yankees 9 positional starts this year were already 35 or older: Matsui, Damon, Posada, and Jeter. We know that Posada and Jeter aren't going anywhere.
4. The Phillies are going to make some major changes to their pitching staff
What a mess for the Phillies. Brad Lidge was horrendous and Ryan Madson wasn't much better. Cole Hamels was enigmatic both on and off the field. Jamie Moyer was inconsistent but more bad than good and is signed for another year. Their best starting pitcher in the regular season, J. A. Happ, started only one game in the playoffs and pitched a total of 6 innings over 7 appearances. And finally, Pedro Martinez, a guy with no future in Philadelphia, started 2 games in the World Series.
As much as I loved seeing Pedro pitch, it's very odd for a defending champion to rely so heavily on a scrap-heap kind of player. That's what happens, though, when a guy like Hamels becomes unreliable and so many starters from the previous season (Myers, Kendrick, and Moyer) are not available to start in the playoffs.
Anyway, oddly for a team that's been to 2 straight World Series, the only thing that is certain for next year is that Cliff Lee will be the opening day starter. Who else will be in that rotation or that bullpen remains a mystery. I would not be surprised to see Lidge bumped to middle relief and Myers (a free agent) back as the closer. I also wouldn't be shocked if Hamels isn't back with the team next year.
5. There are going to be some bizarre free-agent signings
This year's free agent class is one of the most interesting for a long time. It's the first one taking place after the slow economy hit baseball really hard. This past season was the first full one since the U.S. economy has been so bad and there were big drops in revenue from ticket sales, advertising, and merchandising. Teams are going to have less to spend. On top of this, the class of free agents is one of the weakest, talent-wise, in a long time. John Lackey is the best starting pitcher available and he's a solid #2 type guy.
I predict that during this off-season we'll see some better name free agents go to some smaller market teams and a little bit more balance then we've seen in the past. Don't get me wrong...the Yankees and Red Sox have the AL East and AL Wild Card for 2010 locked up already. But because there aren't as many impact players available and all revenues are down, I think we might see teams like the Royals and Pirates dip into free agency and get some of the better players for smaller dollars.